Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[feb1991blizzard]

Eyes down in half an hour again, we really could do with a stonker of an ECM 12z. i would be happy if we could maintain some sort of block to the east even if we have to wait a while for it to benefit us.

[Barry12]

If you want cold then the Met office are currently the ones you want to hear. Their 3 month outlook hints at below average winter due to blocking. There further outlook forecasts well below the seasonal average end of November/start of December. Also, there probability charts show a 60-80% of a below average Dec/Jan/Feb.

[Barry12]

Accuweather who's forecast for the Uk was right last year are also going for a below average winter.

[Nights King]

If you want cold then the Met office are currently the ones you want to hear. Their 3 month outlook hints at below average winter due to blocking. There further outlook forecasts well below the seasonal average end of November/start of December. Also, there probability charts show a 60-80% of a below average Dec/Jan/Feb.

Yes got to be positive with the meto outlook they have access to far more information than the rest of us. If they change to a milder long range and we still have a mild outlook in the first week of december I might start to worry but as it is there is nothing to worry about and like many have said the strat is only one factor among many which can also change in a week or so I would imagine.

chillax people

[Bristawl Si]

If you want cold then the Met office are currently the ones you want to hear. Their 3 month outlook hints at below average winter due to blocking. There further outlook forecasts well below the seasonal average end of November/start of December. Also, there probability charts show a 60-80% of a below average Dec/Jan/Feb.

Agreed.

UK winters dont normally get going (in terms of cold and snow) until early January.

09/10, 10/11, plus Dec 81, were the exceptions really.

If the pros, plus the like of GP are forecasting below average temps then that's good enough for me - ignore the other UK weather soothsayers.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes got to be positive with the meto outlook they have access to far more information than the rest of us. If they change to a milder long range and we still have a mild outlook in the first week of december I might start to worry but as it is there is nothing to worry about and like many have said the strat is only one factor among many which can also change in a week or so I would imagine.

chillax people

Strat not really had any negative effects yet but it will do if we continue to see the westerlys at the top probagate downwards, only a matter of time before a massive tropospheric vortex develops.

Edited November 7, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

not much showing in the charts for the next 10 days so i wouldnt expect a good ecm op (especially if you are looking at the atlantic view). if things are turning wintry, will be beyond the 20th i think so ecm wont show anything till the weekend at the earliest. patience people.

[Barry12]

If the stratosphere carries on cooling then we probably won't have a full month of cold like Dec 10, doesn't mean we can't have cold snaps. The strat is not everything, otherwise LRF would be easy. 'oh it's forecast to be colder than average, mild winter', 'oh it's above average cold winter. Never that simple lol, otherwise even I Could be a good LRF

Edited November 7, 2012 by Barry95

[feb1991blizzard]

not much showing in the charts for the next 10 days so i wouldnt expect a good ecm op (especially if you are looking at the atlantic view). if things are turning wintry, will be beyond the 20th i think so ecm wont show anything till the weekend at the earliest. patience people.

Yes BA, i know we are not going to see a stonking easterly and your post is quite right in the MOD, i just want to see some signs Hemispherically that something possible for late Nov / Dec, certainly not throwing in the towell yet unlike some.

Edited November 7, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[cyclonic happiness]

I doubt it to be honest, i really cant see how any any animal could have a sixth sense about what the weather is going to do, there will obviously be differences in what wildlife you will find and wherabouts from one Autumn to another because animals do react to weather, but there is no strong correlation, as far as i am aware, between recent weather patterns and cold winters, unless you factor in predictive elements, just my personal opinion but i think it is just not possible.

They probably sit on their little branches, wagging their tales and saying things like......"I bet those stupid humans think they can predict the coming winter.....but I think it's just not possible!".

Animals and humans have very deeply hidden ways of predicting stuff, one just has to be open minded enough to actually trust one's 'gut feelings' on occasion.

[Karl83]

Accuweather who's forecast for the Uk was right last year are also going for a below average winter.

I'll add the link Baz

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2012-2013/961001

[Barry12]

I'll add the link Baz

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2012-2013/961001

Cheers

[Methuselah]

They must have access to the Euro 32 day charts... The wagtails, I mean!

Or they've come to eat all the rowan berries?

[feb1991blizzard]

If the stratosphere carries on cooling then we probably won't have a full month of cold like Dec 10, doesn't mean we can't have cold snaps. The strat is not everything, otherwise LRF would be easy. 'oh it's forecast to be colder than average, mild winter', 'oh it's above average cold winter. Never that simple lol, otherwise even I Could be a good LRF

Yes we can get cold but only short spells and not bitter cold, can certainly snow where you live without strong blocking patterns, just not the long lasting spells like dec 10.

[Karl83]

Cheers

No worries. Interesting that Scotland is down for below average snowfall! Lets see if they get it right again!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No worries. Interesting that Scotland is down for below average snowfall! Lets see if they get it right again!

Means then a high to the north of Scotland, and easterly winds, but far too far away to be excited about all this, deeper than FI

also a dreaded risk of a high dominating to the east with mild southerlies dominating

[feb1991blizzard]

They probably sit on their little branches, wagging their tales and saying things like......"I bet those stupid humans think they can predict the coming winter.....but I think it's just not possible!".

Animals and humans have very deeply hidden ways of predicting stuff, one just has to be open minded enough to actually trust one's 'gut feelings' on occasion.

I am trying to be open minded, but they cannot possibly know what the SST in the equatorial pacific are or the 30mb temps at the equator and think to themselves 'oh thats a -NAO signal if ever i saw one', im not belittling people, i im just sceptical, i personally think we will have a good winter this year but apart from whats already been said by GP in his video and the views of other metorologically knowledgeable people, i have no concrete evidence.

[Liam J]

No worries. Interesting that Scotland is down for below average snowfall! Lets see if they get it right again!

Yes, unbelievable considering Scotland can do pretty well even during winters which aren't particularly cold when the rest of the UK gets barely a flake.....

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM seasonal update out tomorrow I believe. Let's hope Matt keeps us informed!

[Barry12]

No worries. Interesting that Scotland is down for below average snowfall! Lets see if they get it right again!

If you look closely, parts of southern Scotland are in blue. Whether the Americans don't know where the Scot-Eng border is I don't know

Edit - Thats just for temperatures.

Edited November 7, 2012 by Barry95

[Liam J]

ECM seasonal update out tomorrow I believe. Let's hope Matt keeps us informed!

This should be interesting, lets hope Matt pops in with the news....

[london-snow]

I feel all the recent disappointment with regards to the models and what is currently showing is a tad uncalled for. It is not even a classified winter season yet and it is not like we have been promised cold and let down within the reliable time frame.

This is what i can gather so far -

- A possible cold outbreak in early December these tie in with gp's thoughts also the meto outlook.

- A cold to very cold January & February is favorable at this time although subject to change.

So all in all i would be pretty dam happy if i was in the cold camp which i am. Lets get the next few weeks done and dusted which to add is not looking overly mild for this time of year and look out for trends say from the 18th onward which is when i expect some juicy chats to start appearing in fi.

[Barry12]

- A possible cold outbreak in early December these tie in with gp's thoughts also the meto outlook.

And the ECMWF

[london-snow]

And the ECMWF

That is true Barry although i think the meto use the data collected from the ecmwf to determine their forecast and outlook although not solely .

[Barry12]

That is true Barry although i think the meto use the data collected from the ecmwf to determine their forecast and outlook although not solely .

Indeed that is true sir.