Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Nearly, getting closer !

Potent uppers creeping their way westward.

-5 uppers getting close to Saddleworth and Oldham

[feb1991blizzard]

-5 uppers getting close to Saddleworth and Oldham

Yes, not quite good enough yet and common sense tells me that even the -10 uppers across the water would be somewhat moderated by the time they get here if and when they do but its a step in the right direction and a case in point not to worry too much about a lack of cold pooling, obviously right now any Easterly would be a wasted Easterly but the cold pooling can build up in a matter of days. Each little baby step is another step.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Yes, not quite good enough yet and common sense tells me that even the -10 uppers across the water would be somewhat moderated by the time they get here if and when they do but its a step in the right direction and a case in point not to worry too much about a lack of cold pooling, obviously right now any Easterly would be a wasted Easterly but the cold pooling can build up in a matter of days. Each little baby step is another step.

True at least those charts don't show a balmy Spring-like Southwestrly, a step forward is better than backwards. Could be a lot worse.

[feb1991blizzard]

A few decent members in an otherwise disappointing looking GEFS suite, only had a really quick glance though.

Saved the best until last.

#

EDIT : Charts have changed since i posted!!!

Edited November 7, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[weather is fun]

The two buzz update is shocking news for coldies. Why we are chasing cold sypnotics deep in f1 when it wont even happen is beyond me. That is just setting ourselves up for a fall. Stewart and simon keeling seem to think it may be jan feb before we see the real cold. Although at this stage i think its impossible to be saying j/f could be the months. This year seems very similar to last year were we were chasing the cold outlooks. The charts for at least the next 14 days look very autuminal with very little sign of anything wintry.

[Barry12]

And what if the charts change and show cold tomorrow? Also why would the Met be saying well below average temperatures end of Nov/start of dec? For the laugh?

[Barry12]

Oh and so what I'f the next 2 weeks are Autumnal, it wouldn't be a surprise..since its Autumn.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The two buzz update is shocking news for coldies. Why we are chasing cold sypnotics deep in f1 when it wont even happen is beyond me. That is just setting ourselves up for a fall. Stewart and simon keeling seem to think it may be jan feb before we see the real cold. Although at this stage i think its impossible to be saying j/f could be the months. This year seems very similar to last year were we were chasing the cold outlooks. The charts for at least the next 14 days look very autuminal with very little sign of anything wintry.

Again. For the 2nd time this morning , your wrong , you couldn't of listened to the vid by Stewart because he NEVER once said he expects the cld to come later, he just pointed out that the cfs shows blocking in jan and feb and not dec, he never said he agreed with it, if you watch it properly you will see that every single signal is pointing toward a blocked winter, then if you read his post in the strat thred yesterday you will see background signals already strongly pointing toward blocking for dec, this is all a bit frustrating because ppl are either only hearing the bits they choose or they are listening to other posts and its a case of Chinese whispers with the wrong results, I suggest ppl read the strat thred .

POPULAR

No suprise to see the longer range ECM signalling a rise in pressure to the North and lowering pressure to the south. This is not related to the stratosphere but the lead up to this around mid month (troposperically) will likely have a significant on the stratosphere during the first week December.

A strong build of pressure over Eastern Europe and Western Russia has a teleconnective influence on Wave 2 activity and I'd be very suprised if we didn't see strong wave 2 response in the stratosphere during early December (wave 2 being more responsible for vortex splits). That places us around late December for a stratospheric influenced pattern.

[and wouldn't you know it, we have another tropical wave favouring high latitude blocking mid January - good trop / strat / trop/ strat feedbacks]

Edited by Glacier Point,

[Radiating Dendrite]

The two buzz update is shocking news for coldies. Why we are chasing cold sypnotics deep in f1 when it wont even happen is beyond me. That is just setting ourselves up for a fall. Stewart and simon keeling seem to think it may be jan feb before we see the real cold. Although at this stage i think its impossible to be saying j/f could be the months. This year seems very similar to last year were we were chasing the cold outlooks. The charts for at least the next 14 days look very autuminal with very little sign of anything wintry.

I would ignore Brian on TWO.

His forecasts are very simplistic and he continues to ignore important drivers such as the strat.

[AWD]

The two buzz update is shocking news for coldies. Why we are chasing cold sypnotics deep in f1 when it wont even happen is beyond me. That is just setting ourselves up for a fall. Stewart and simon keeling seem to think it may be jan feb before we see the real cold. Although at this stage i think its impossible to be saying j/f could be the months. This year seems very similar to last year were we were chasing the cold outlooks. The charts for at least the next 14 days look very autuminal with very little sign of anything wintry.

Leaving formula 1 aside, this is the winter thread so with winter being well into FI still, most posts are going to be subject to the FI clause. It's a thread for a bit of light hearted opinions on winter, as per the title.

With many mixed opinions going into winter, this year it's proving a very difficult season to forecast, more so than usual, so there is likely to be a lot of different forecasts & opinions issued.

Also, remember November is a Autumn month & whilst we can often get a good idea in November on what may happen in December, things can still twist & turn quickly.

Lots of forecasts showing hope both for December as per the Meto Outlook & for a descending winter as per Roger & to some extent GP.

Just enjoy the ride, lots of twists & turns to come I'm sure, I much prefer the position we are in now to the position we were in last winter.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I would ignore Brian on TWO.

His forecasts are very simplistic and he continues to ignore important drivers such as the strat.

Agreed, he even rubbishes ppl who take the strat as a massive driver in our weather , I wonder who he's pointing his finger at?? Yet all I ever read on the forum over their is posters quoting what was said on hear, you never get us lot giving quote after quote of them guys do you?? Think it's a case of . . . .erm . . . . . .jealousy lol

[Barry12]

Don't forget accuweather as well AWD

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Still no sign of anything majorly cold in the model outputs, a continuing theme rain - drier interludes - rain - drier interludes lol,

at least it won't be to mild though :-). 3 weeks until the start of winter proper. I hope the more weather educated are right about there prediction of a cold end to Nov and start to Dec, wish it would start showing in the models ggggrrrrrr lol

[TEITS]

I hope the more weather educated are right about there prediction of a cold end to Nov and start to Dec, wish it would start showing in the models ggggrrrrrr lol

At the moment im not convinced we will see much in the way of cold weather late Nov/early Dec and we may have to wait until late Dec/early Jan. What we have to take into account is historically Decembers like 1981,2009,2010 are actually quiet rare and many of the notoriously cold winters began after xmas.

Making a forecast at the moment appears difficult. On the one hand it appears certain variables favour below average temps but will the Stratosphere override these variables.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

At the moment im not convinced we will see much in the way of cold weather late Nov/early Dec and we may have to wait until late Dec/early Jan. What we have to take into account is historically Decembers like 1981,2009,2010 are actually quiet rare and many of the notoriously cold winters began after xmas.

Making a forecast at the moment appears difficult. On the one hand it appears certain variables favour below average temps but will the Stratosphere override these variables.

Well I am happy that the meto gave a good update yesterday, but then again they are not always right and how many times have we seen a good update one minute turn into a bad one the next.

[Eskimo]

The two buzz update is shocking news for coldies. Why we are chasing cold sypnotics deep in f1 when it wont even happen is beyond me. That is just setting ourselves up for a fall. Stewart and simon keeling seem to think it may be jan feb before we see the real cold. Although at this stage i think its impossible to be saying j/f could be the months. This year seems very similar to last year were we were chasing the cold outlooks. The charts for at least the next 14 days look very autuminal with very little sign of anything wintry.

Very different synoptics from last year, actually they are polar opposites.

Edited November 7, 2012 by PerfectStorm

[P-M]

The two buzz update is shocking news for coldies. Why we are chasing cold sypnotics deep in f1 when it wont even happen is beyond me. That is just setting ourselves up for a fall. Stewart and simon keeling seem to think it may be jan feb before we see the real cold. Although at this stage i think its impossible to be saying j/f could be the months. This year seems very similar to last year were we were chasing the cold outlooks. The charts for at least the next 14 days look very autuminal with very little sign of anything wintry.

Grrr is it me or does anyone else hate it when it's termed F1 it's NOT F1 it's FI as in wye aye, or eyes in ya heed!! FI FI!!!!

Now in response to that post it's a bit silly when we are only in Autumn to write off winter like that...

Edited November 7, 2012 by Wishful-Thinking

[Heisenberg]

ive just seen a tweet from Matt Hugo saying that the strat is cooling still and it shows signs for a rubbish winter??

I havent looked at the thread this morning but I thought the strat was to be warming very slowly and that the signs were good? Im happy to bow to the more educated on this so please advise on thoughts (and not rip me to shreds lol)......

[Vertical Limit]

If I had to stick my neck out I would say that we will have a cold winter overall. Having watched GP's video, there are so many signals pointing towards a cold outcome. Accuweather have forecasted something very similar and reading through the technical posts here over the past few weeks, the trend for cold is most definitely postive. I buy into the possibility that it will be a more descending winter into cold, particular from Mid/Late December onwards throught to a potentially very cold Feb. I am hoping we will see some cold potential brewing for the end of Novemeber but I'm not yet convinced so I'll be watching the model discussions closely over the next 10 days along with keeping a close eye on the Strat thread.

[Liam J]

Just remember each member is free to express their own views and use forecasts and tools etc in here to give pointers and early thoughts for the coming winter season, using charts/data to back their thoughts where possible. Please don't jump on people just because what they've posted isn't perhaps what you want to read, ie not a cold outlook. Getting tired of seeing that Doylem name mentioned as well!

We'll all find out soon enough what winter 2012/13 has in store for us, be patient people, early indicators are pointing towards a colder than average winter, whether we actually experience one is a different question, and one that will be answered over the next 4 months.

Edited November 7, 2012 by Liam J

[AutumnMists]

-5 uppers getting close to Saddleworth and Oldham

Had a bet with a mate that the Latics will suffer from three or more postponments at Bounday Park this Winter/Spring. Hoping it's a good call!

[feb1991blizzard]

Had a bet with a mate that the Latics will suffer from three or more postponments at Bounday Park this Winter/Spring. Hoping it's a good call!

Good chance, whenever i see that ground on the telly, it doesnt look a good playing surface at the best of times, even if we dont get a brutally cold winter, you always have the chance of wet weather doing the business, if you just had a straight even money person to person bet though, maybe you should have asked the local bookies what price they would give you.

[weather is fun]

Not a good update from chio in the strat thread. He is going agaisnt the met outlook and stewarts outlook aswell. This is a worrying signal.He has more or less said it isnt good for cold fans. Oh dear. Never mind guess at least the energy companys who hiked up the prices can take a running jump. Hope for something abit colder come j/f time but im not holding my breath. It was looking promising a few weeks ago now not so much. Stupid strat. But we were warned a few weeks ago i seem to remember that this could be our nemasis to our winter.

[Aaron]

I'm going to jump of a cliff! Life isn't worth living anymore!

Oh well, I'm going to Sweden this winter so bugger this winter, I don't care!

Edited November 7, 2012 by Aaron

[itsnowjoke]

Well today i was reading on here that they thought it was going to be a colder than average winter so dont know what to think : (