Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[Eskimo]

Maybe it was just the tempertures then, unless someone older than me can tell me otherwise

Definitely remember it snowing, if anyone can help us clarify whether january 2002 had a week of freezing temps then I will be grateful!

Edited November 5, 2012 by PerfectStorm

[feb1991blizzard]

Definitely remember it snowing, if anyone can help us clarify whether january 2002 had a week of freezing temps then I will be grateful!

Could have sworn you said 2003 then, ive just looked through the charts (i had given up between 98 and 08 so my memory for events then not as good as before or since), found the charts that suggested the first week and the last week were cold and snowy, then i look and you said 2002!

Give me a minute.

[Eskimo]

Could have sworn you said 2003 then, ive just looked through the charts (i had given up between 98 and 08 so my memory for events then not as good as before or since), found the charts that suggested the first week and the last week were cold and snowy, then i look and you said 2002!

Give me a minute.

Made an error sorry, it was 2002 I was after.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Definitely remember it snowing, if anyone can help us clarify whether january 2002 had a week of freezing temps then I will be grateful!

Jan 2002 was one of coldest starts ever, it felt, a few -10 nights and ice days due to inversion high, no snow at all

[feb1991blizzard]

A bit of Surface cold at the start but apart from that the only cold was a brief cold spell for Scotland on the 25th, certainly no bitter cold lasting a week.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A bit of Surface cold at the start but apart from that the only cold was a brief cold spell for Scotland on the 25th, certainly no bitter cold lasting a week.

There certainly was here bitter cold may not be the technical word, but first 5 days never got above 0, came off a very cold end to 2001, and cold was trapped within the high

Edited November 5, 2012 by ihatetherain

[John Badrick]

This winter is looking abit to normal with tot much snow.

But things are yet to change.

It's not even winter yet!!!!! We still have lots of autumn to get through so things will change. How can you say comments like this when not even the most experienced forecaster can predict this far out

[feb1991blizzard]

There certainly was here bitter cold may not be the technical word, but first 5 days never got above 0

Yes i think ive underestimated the lenghth of the spell and done something it is easy to do when you only have access to 500mb and 850mb charts and that is over estimated the temps at surface, this was still very cold i guess????

Edited November 5, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

The power of faux cold caught me out!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes i think ive underestimated the lenghth of the spell and done something it is easy to do when you only have access to 500mb and 850mb charts and that is over estimated the temps, this was still cold i guess????

was very cold, somehow its a spell I remember quite well, looking at the last few days of 2001, then it will look cold, uppers were not cold though by new years day

(heart break as well in a way as it was when the new Atlantic 252 died), (rip Atlantic!)

Edited November 5, 2012 by ihatetherain

[feb1991blizzard]

There certainly was here bitter cold may not be the technical word, but first 5 days never got above 0, came off a very cold end to 2001, and cold was trapped within the high

Thats another mistake i made, i didn't look at the charts leading up, i only started at 1st Jan, appologies.

[John Badrick]

I'd say atleast Jan for anything exciting.

This year is similar to last winter but possibly teleconnections coming together around Jan.

Anyone seeking a re run of 2009/10 winter is really expecting way to much.

Average rainfall and average to above average temps through Nov Dec and start of Jan.

A lot of forecasters would disagree with this statement, including the Met office

[Tony Beets]

Remember the film field of dreams???!

Quote "build it and they will come"

That's what winter is about, get the building blocks in place then the cold will follow.

Take a deep breath and calm down, way too early to be panicking!!

[Ice Day]

Does feel like an old fashioned autumn though doesn't it?

I mean, look at tonight. When I was a kid in the 70's and 80's, Bonfire night always seemed to be bitterly cold and frosty like tonight.

The whole autumn so far reeks of nostalgia, and for that reason alone, I'm banking on a cold winter.

The other thing that encourages me is how much things have changed since the synoptic shift in 2007 and everything seems to be on the cooler side since then.

I make you spot on. We're still in Autumn (although you would think we are in deep midwinter given some of the posts today!) and the weather feels as it should, Autumnal ! Good northern hemisphere snowcover and 5 out of the last 7 months more than 1c below average on the CET. Plenty of reasons to be cheerful as Ian Dury used to say!

[EML Network]

It Bugs me when I keep reading people saying that Pattern Matching doesn't work !!

OF COURSE IT DOES !!

If It didn't, then how would you know a Bartlett high is the enemy of all cold and snow lovers in the UK for example, or how HLB can lead to cold episodes, or how a retrogressing Continental High can lead to Easterly's, or a SSW can lead to a cold outbreak in the UK, QBO, ENSO, SST...the list goes on and on.

It's ALL about pattern matching, the only reason you know the above things to be true, is based on what has happened when they occurred before.

So to say that pattern matching DOESN'T work is nonsense ...if that were the case then there would be no point in looking at any of the charts including the Zonal Wind speed over the Pole at all depths, the Stratospheric Temperature over the N .Pole, the ENSO state, the QBO, SST, and all the other 100's of charts we have at our finger tips !

That's why we all want to see a SSW event, because when it has happened BEFORE it has often lead to a cold outbreak here in the UK....if that's not pattern matching..I don't know what is !!

Edited November 5, 2012 by EML Network

[johnholmes]

It Bugs me when I keep reading people saying that Pattern Matching doesn't work !!

OF COURSE IT DOES !!

If It didn't, then how would you know a Bartlett high is the enemy of all cold and snow lovers in the UK for example, or how HLB can lead to cold episodes, or how a retrogressing Continental High can lead to Easterly's, or a SSW can lead to a cold outbreak in the UK, QBO, ENSO, SST...the list goes on and on.

It's ALL about pattern matching, the only reason you know the above things to be true, is based on what has happened when they occurred before.

So to say that pattern matching DOESN'T work is nonsense ...if that were the case then there would be no point in looking at any of the charts including the Zonal Wind speed over the Pole at all depths, the Stratospheric Temperature over the N .Pole, the ENSO state, the QBO, SST, and all the other 100's of charts we have at our finger tips !

That's why we all want to see a SSW event, because when it has happened BEFORE it has often lead to a cold outbreak here in the UK....if that's not pattern matching..I don't know what is !!

It does depend on what you actually mean by pattern matching?

If you are suggesting that patterns in, for example October, mean a particular type of winter then that is incorrect?

[Methuselah]

It Bugs me when I keep reading people saying that Pattern Matching doesn't work !!

OF COURSE IT DOES !!

If It didn't, then how would you know a Bartlett high is the enemy of all cold and snow lovers in the UK for example, or how HLB can lead to cold episodes, or how a retrogressing Continental High can lead to Easterly's, or a SSW can lead to a cold outbreak in the UK, QBO, ENSO, SST...the list goes on and on.

It's ALL about pattern matching, the only reason you know the above things to be true, is based on what has happened when they occurred before.

So to say that pattern matching DOESN'T work is nonsense ...if that were the case then there would be no point in looking at any of the charts including the Zonal Wind speed over the Pole at all depths, the Stratospheric Temperature over the N .Pole, the ENSO state, the QBO, SST, and all the other 100's of charts we have at our finger tips !

That's why we all want to see a SSW event, because when it has happened BEFORE it has often lead to a cold outbreak here in the UK....if that's not pattern matching..I don't know what is !!

If pattern-matching works how-come no-one has so-far managed to use it effectively?

[EML Network]

Yeah to some extent you are right, however, if you were to look at another October, where not only the model output was similar, but other factors were similar, I.E the QBO, SST, etc etc..THEN I would say there's more of an argument to put forward a theory that one year might be similar to the other.

So yes, It does depend on how you interpret ''Pattern Matching'' and what you are comparing

[johnholmes]

So far the immense computing power of none of the major weather centres has yet found any correlation that they could use regarding pattern matching for any season or any month to predict the future season.

[cheeky_monkey]

Yeah to some extent you are right, however, if you were to look at another October, where not only the model output was similar, but other factors were similar, I.E the QBO, SST, etc etc..THEN I would say there's more of an argument to put forward a theory that one year might be similar to the other.

So yes, It does depend on how you interpret ''Pattern Matching'' and what you are comparing

Pattern matching only works if you could have an exact pattern match across the entire planet..but that would only match pressure patterns which would be near impossible to achieve..let alone taking into account things like SSTs, sea ice, snow cover etc etc you would have more chance of winning the lottery 10 times in a row..with the same numbers

[Ruzzi]

For those who strongly believe that solar activity affects our winters ... Thoughts on this??

http://www.spaceweather.com/

We're apparently about 6 months away from a solar maximum. I dread to think what the minimum will be like

[EML Network]

That's probably because there hasn't been a year where all the various factors that we look at to make a prediction about a season were exactly the same..at every stage of the year.

Things might look similar at one specific moment in time, but the next week or the next month, the two will fall out of phase with each other, my point is not to encourage or put forward an argument that one can pattern match one year to another...more to put forward the argument to say that ''pattern matching'' doesn't work .PERIOD...is wrong and misleading.

I see no evidence to the contrary either to say that pattern matching one month compared to another similar month in years gone by doesn't work ...if that were the case why would this forum suddenly erupt if the charts were showing a bitterly Easterly with a -10 dam line covering the country ....why..?? ...because we know from YEARS GONE BY that it would likely lead to a shed load of snow and lot's of snow men :-)

[liam300]

It's not even winter yet!!!!! We still have lots of autumn to get through so things will change. How can you say comments like this when not even the most experienced forecaster can predict this far out

Would recommend looking at the model output thread. Most models show 10 - 12 days of average weather, with the inclusion of a further two weeks after showing no cold fronts. This would rule out November, but obviously cannot comment on further months, so in some respects i can agree with ths comment.

Edited November 5, 2012 by liam300

[johnholmes]

Would recommend looking at the model output thread. Most models show 10 - 12 days of average weather, with the inclusion of a further two weeks after showing no cold fronts. This would rule out November, but obviously cannot comment on further months, so in some respects i can agree with ths comment.

sorry that is just not true in my view, please see my longish post in the model thread

[Methuselah]

That's probably because there hasn't been a year where all the various factors that we look at to make a prediction about a season were exactly the same..at every stage of the year.

Things might look similar at one specific moment in time, but the next week or the next month, the two will fall out of phase with each other, my point is not to encourage or put forward an argument that one can pattern match one year to another...more to put forward the argument to say that ''pattern matching'' doesn't work .PERIOD...is wrong and misleading.

I see no evidence to the contrary either to say that pattern matching one month compared to another similar month in years gone by doesn't work ...if that were the case why would this forum suddenly erupt if the charts were showing a bitterly Easterly with a -10 dam line covering the country ....why..?? ...because we know from YEARS GONE BY that it would likely lead to a shed load of snow and lot's of snow men :-)

It just doesn't work EML...As C-M said: you'd need to know everything down to the last molecule...