Preliminary Winter Thoughts

[Paul]

Stewart Rampling (GP) has put together an in depth look at the upcoming winter ahead of the full winter forecast later this month. You can view the video and presentation here:

Winter 2012/13 - Preliminary Thoughts

[Bolton67]

Well presented. thank you.

[phil nw.]

Thank you Stewart for all the work and research you must have put in.

An excellent presentation of all the Ocean/Atmosphere factors that affect our weather patterns.

[Polar Maritime]

A very well presented forecast, And not to technical for me to understand, fingers crossed.

I still think GP looks like Bear Grills...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Great stuff, very informative and clear.

[Jeremy Shockey]

Thank you Stewart , what a brilliant presentation. Very informative and detailed and yet not too complicated for me to understand ( as a learner )

[seabreeze86]

Brilliant, easy to follow and very informative. Looking forward to winter forecast later in the month.

[Methuselah]

Very well done, Stewart.

[mcweather]

Once again Stewart a superb presentation. Backed up ( unlike so many other forecasts) by science and methodology.

Making my own judgement from the early thoughts presented I would suspect a winter that starts relatively quietly but becomes

colder and possibly snowier as it goes along, especially post christmas. However those are just my own unscientific mumblings.

I'm very much looking forward to Stewarts forecast later in the month.

[A.J]

Totally agree with the above comments, a cracking piece of work GP

[Day10]

Even a thicko like me understood..

Thanks GP

[syed2878]

excelent as ever nice1 gp looking forward to the full forecast l8r on in the month.

[Dunstable Snow]

Hi everyone,

Been lurking for a long while and decided to take the plunge and post. Thoroughly enjoyed the video. Congratulations for making a content full of technical aspects relatively easy for me to follow. I think those of us who like cold and snow will be encouraged by Stwarts current assesment of forthcoming winter prospects.

Thanks again.

[Paul]

Welcome to the forum DS

[samster]

First timer here too. Thanks so much GP; learned a great deal for your presentation and am eagerly anticipating your full winter forecast!

[IDO]

Wow, packed it all in to that video! Should have taken notes. Had a vague understanding of these factors but that really helps learners like me. Understanding the Chiono's, Wark's and Bluearmy's of this forum sometimes makes my brain shutdown, so all your effort is very appreciated.

Lets hope these favourable synoptics correlate to the highlighted statistical anomaly pattern, and its not the case of "Lies, damned lies, and statistics".

[Liam J]

Excellent presentation Stewart, well done. I've also read through the slides myself, these also contain A LOT of information in a bite size easy to understand format.

Can't wait for the full forecast.

[January Snowstorm]

Great forecast and presentation GP, thanks for all the effort and time that was clearly put into it.

Knowing your not a ramper or anything leads me to think you must feel a cold Winter is a sure bet and that your own expectation is one of a 50 year event re cold!!

[chionomaniac]

Thanks once again for another well presented and well thought out video. I think that you have covered all the complex factors that could influence the forthcoming winter making them concise and easy to understand for those who may not have your grasp of teleconnections.

Off to buy another snow shovel now!

[chionomaniac]

On the content I would agree with the overall assessment. I am concerned with the cold stratosphere propagating down for the start of winter and perhaps giving us a more positive AO to the start of December - but I am also acutely aware that this could be prevented by tropospheric events feeding back stratospherically later this month.

A question Stewart, what do believe is causing the disconnect between the possible weak EL Nino and the global angular momentum?

Can this be predicted and I am sure we saw something similar with the last La Nina?

I thought that January or February would be cold this winter but after that presentation, moreso now!

[UV-RAY]

Excellent presentation GP, regarding your December thoughts you did say on the MD thread that you felt the latter part of his month and early next could be quite interesting. Are you still thinking on the same lines or are the background signals more mixed now?

[TobyT]

Just want to echo what everyone else has said..great presentation.. full of information thanks GP

.I follow these forums daily and the input from guys like yourself Chio and BFTP et al make for really informative reading..thanks guys.

To my untrained eye it looks like we are in for a very interesting winter,..all the signs seem to be moving towards the possibility of cold Jan/Feb with -AO a very blocked winter interesting times ahead.

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks GP and also further thanks go out to Paul and the other netweather.tv big boys for not putting our Stewart on the climate science transfer market.

On the same topic of well informed presentations, can we have a few more of these please.

[Dorsetbred]

It was so good I had to watch it twice, just to make sure I understood everything he was conveying. Well done, looking forward to the next episode.

[AWD]

Very good forecast.

I could only dream of putting something like that together. Lets hope it becomes reality.