Preliminary Winter Thoughts

[Don]

Thanks Netweather and GP for a detailed analysis as usual. Not looking too shabby for coldies! The CFS v2 charts shown towards the end of the presentation more than reminded me a little of the winter setup of 1985/6 with a potentially milder than average December, a near average or possibly slightly colder than average January, followed by a cold February. I know GP isn't convinced that it quite has the early part of winter nailed but interesting nonetheless, especially as a few references to 85/6 have been made recently.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Don

[Polar Side]

Great video GP, really enjoyed it.

Looking forward to your full winter forecast.

[in the vale]

Excellent Stewart. Very clear. Well thought out sequencing of contributing factors. I think we now know a little more of what to look out for in the models during the coming weeks, which I guess is the point of releasing this early view of your thinking. Makes me feel like I now understand more about the likely drivers this winter - of course only until someone asks me to explain it! Thanks.

[crimsonp]

what i am finding really difficult to believe is that it's been a year since stewarts' "winter of two halves" forecast!!!!

i'm liking the chronokey effects that he has going on but, forgive my criticism, is there any chance that someone could put it to him to get a lapel mic? just finding it hard to hear him with my kids screaming in my ear..... then when they go to bed i am told to to turn it down coz the mrs can't hear her soaps!!! who'd be me eh?

i'm a bit gutted that his december thoughts show a possible repeat of last years december weather which i kinda felt was gonna happen but was hoping that he would poo poo my hunches.... ah well, tis only his early thoughts and things could still surprise us all (baring in mind that his winter of two halves forecast was scuppered by a winter of autumnal weather [here in manchester it was anyway])

anyhoo.... keep up the good work nw bods.... i love this site more then i love bacefook!!!

xxx

[Tom Quintavalle]

Echo all the comments above. Excellent presentation Stewart, and in a manner that the not so technically minded will have too many problems in understanding.

Stewart, you have mentioned in earlier posts this Autumn that you felt that the 1968/69 winter season may well be a reasonable analogue for this winter. Some of those composite diagrams look as if they suggest, although we may have a -NAO, it may well be bordering on being western based at times, if high pressure to our north is centred W.Greenland/N.E.Canada, which could result in a milder flow from time to time.

January 1969 was a fairly mild month with, at times, a western based -NAO but in February high pressure became centred at first towards Greenland and then eventually over Scandinavia and resulted in a CET of 1.0c against Januarys CET of 5.5c.

Do you think we could see this kind of synoptic evolution through the winter? You seemed to give the impression that February could well be the coldest month of the winter, relative to average, apologies if I've misread your thoughts, albeit as you stress, they are preliminary thoughts.

Regards,

Tom.

Edited November 6, 2012 by TomSE20

[feb1991blizzard]

Excellent and thanks G.P.

[Glacier Point]

Thanks all for the positive feedback so far. I didn't want to spoon feed but I also wanted the presentation to be reasonably technical so it's encouraging that you've been able to get the gist.

Just to be clear, I'm not sold on CFS idea of a milder December, and yes, as that starts to come into a nearer range, we can start to see that this upcoming phase is a likely blip and the stratosphere will likely come under some pressure.

The disconnect issue I think is largely related to the PDO and its influence on the global weather pattern.

[snowmackem]

Well I would love to comment on the video but it won't play for me ??!!

Any clues?

Cheers, Karl

[Mark Neal.]

Fantastic Video GP! Look forward to your views over the coming weeks and the winter forecast video at end of November

[fUnKy]

Fantastic watch mate, Made a great deal of what I read on here much clearer, but the spelling mistake of forecast on one of the early screens was a bit of a schoolboy error

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting early thoughts, ENSO disconnect IMO is the perturbation cycle? Similar thoughts at early stage are had...enjoyed the presentation and reasoning and am still very interested how GPs early thoughts seem to 'connect' with external forcing LRFs

BFTP

[Paul]

Well I would love to comment on the video but it won't play for me ??!!

Any clues?

Cheers, Karl

Most likely to be an addon in your browser or security software blocking it (adblocker?)

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Thanks all for the positive feedback so far. I didn't want to spoon feed but I also wanted the presentation to be reasonably technical so it's encouraging that you've been able to get the gist.

Just to be clear, I'm not sold on CFS idea of a milder December, and yes, as that starts to come into a nearer range, we can start to see that this upcoming phase is a likely blip and the stratosphere will likely come under some pressure.

The disconnect issue I think is largely related to the PDO and its influence on the global weather pattern.

Thank you for clearing that up , Iv spent all morning trying to put ppl straight , it seems as soon as ppl looked at the cfs for dec they stopped listening to you and made there own conclusions, they only need to read your post in the strat thred yesterday to be put right which Iv pasted for others to look at, very interesting times ahead.

[Vertical Limit]

Great video GP.

[IanM]

, is there any chance that someone could put it to him to get a lapel mic? just finding it hard to hear him with my kids screaming in my ear..... then when they go to bed i am told to to turn it down coz the mrs can't hear her soaps!!! who'd be me eh?

That's sorted, I've added to the growing kit bag for our video presentations, so hopefully we can lose the room echo and make it all a bit clearer.

[shedhead]

Enjoyed that presentation very much Stewart. It's not easy to get all the complicated factors involved across in such a clear, consise way, but I think even a total layman (sorry layperson) would be able to absorb and understand the basics after seeing that.

[johnholmes]

yes thanks Stewart for a well presented video. I also like the idea of folk being able to look at individual bits in their own time. That should help those struggling to understand the many complexities in the formula.

[Bumpkin]

Thank you Stewart for that presentation. It makes it easier for novices like myself to understand. The describing whilst showing pictures and diagrams helped to make things clearer that I was unsure about. Good work GP

[Barry12]

I learned a lot from this video

Really looking forward to the official winter forecast, any date for it?

[SnowBallz]

Excellent presentation Stewart

[lorenzo]

Another great video, and well worked slides. Good to see all the bits of the jigsaw that is a winter prediction in once place.

Hopefully have more contributions to the technical thread now as folks get interested in those aspects presented.

Well Done.

.. Over to you Mr AO.

[keithlucky]

With so little solar activity at the moment ,it should mean that we should be going into a pretty cold spell of weather in the next few weeks if you believe that solar flares etc has effects on the world weather.

[Barry12]

With so little solar activity at the moment ,it should mean that we should be going into a pretty cold spell of weather in the next few weeks if you believe that solar flares etc has effects on the world weather.

It has a lagg of around a year

[keithlucky]

It has a lagg of around a year

No about 3 weeks .

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Winter's over ....!!!