Scotland Regional Discussion

[Polar Side]

Loving GP's latest post in the model thread.

[Guest]

Loving GP's latest post in the model thread.

For those who don't want to enter the dark side, he has suggested that this pattern might get locked-in for a little while...and John Holmes has agreed that this is a possibility.

For anyone who doesn't look at the model thread, when these two post you read it and learn from it, trust me

Edited November 23, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[Hairy Celt]

Fruitless attempt at some work on the Affric hills this morning, snow settling wetly down to 600m and heavy sleet / sleety rain below. Must be ideal weather for someone? Oh yeah, I forget, SKIERS...

Looks like I'll be filling in a job application at Tesco soon.

[Hairy Celt]

Prozac?

WTF for?? Drifts so big you're trapped indoors with family for the whole winter ?

Or, in light of GP's post, no retail therapy!

Edited November 23, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Just hoping for a white Christmas really.

GP a minute ago:

Thereafter, the logical evolution would be for a northerly attack week before Christmas. Probably not what retailers want to hear.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The thing to bear in mind is that it wouldn't be like weeks of that 2010 November easterly. If it did last until Christmas it would involve a lot of dry weather, most likely with a frontal event that went the wrong side of marginal (I'm thinking of February 2010's snowfall as a possible unfortunate analogy for east coasters). I don't see any reason why it couldn't last until Christmas, and in fact GP is talking up mid January also as looking particularly promising. It could of course all change tomorrow, and certainly the immediate cold isn't quite nailed on yet, but it'd take a heck of a lot more than a rogue shortwave to derail the cold in the mid-long term

[Guest]

The thing to bear in mind is that it wouldn't be like weeks of that 2010 November easterly. If it did last until Christmas it would involve a lot of dry weather, most likely with a frontal event that went the wrong side of marginal (I'm thinking of February 2010's snowfall as a possible unfortunate analogy for east coasters). I don't see any reason why it couldn't last until Christmas, and in fact GP is talking up mid January also as looking particularly promising. It could of course all change tomorrow, and certainly the immediate cold isn't quite nailed on yet, but it'd take a heck of a lot more than a rogue shortwave to derail the cold in the mid-long term

I may have taken a slightly different meaning from GP's recent posts, but he seemed to suggest that we would end up with something of a repeating pattern of northern blocking, rather than cold now for a week or two and then cold again in mid-Jan and nowt in between the two. Splitting hairs now? We'd all have sold our souls to the devil a few years ago for charts like these, even for a week let alone the possibility of reloading over several weeks.

[Cheggers]

I may have taken a slightly different meaning from GP's recent posts, but he seemed to suggest that we would end up with something of a repeating pattern of northern blocking, rather than cold now for a week or two and then cold again in mid-Jan and nowt in between the two. Splitting hairs now? We'd all have sold our souls to the devil a few years ago for charts like these, even for a week let alone the possibility of reloading over several weeks.

We would have done so for even a fraction of these charts last year let alone a few years ago. I do think the 09/10 and 10/11 set a bench mark which is going to stay for a while, and we will always seek better which may or may not occur.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I may have taken a slightly different meaning from GP's recent posts, but he seemed to suggest that we would end up with something of a repeating pattern of northern blocking, rather than cold now for a week or two and then cold again in mid-Jan and nowt in between the two. Splitting hairs now? We'd all have sold our souls to the devil a few years ago for charts like these, even for a week let alone the possibility of reloading over several weeks.

Yeah that is what I meant, didn't word it quite as well as I meant to, which would put us into '47/'63/ winters we don't even have charts for levels of cold and snow.

[JoeShmoe]

Yeah that is what I meant, didn't word it quite as well as I meant to, which would put us into '47/'63/ winters we don't even have charts for levels of cold and snow.

As much as i enjoyed Nov/Dec 2010 initially not sure i'd want snow on the ground for weeks on end again. Was a slog with the kids off school, trying to get to work, sort the in laws out etc. Couldn't play golf for 5 weeks, it was a nightmare :-)

Happy to have 2 days of immense snowfall, then a thaw then another immense snowfall 2 weeks later !

Edited November 23, 2012 by JoeShmoe

[edo]

Have you done a lamp post winter check? Made sure it's been properly serviced etc?

believe it or not my lampost has just failed closest to my house...I called clarence this morning (hes a cuddly lion who you report lighting defects to) so should get sorted soon however in some ways its easier to lampost watch as the one further away is in sight and sometimes the glare from the one outside the house causes me to hallucinate at times and see flakes that are not there)

[Guest]

As much as i enjoyed Nov/Dec 2010 initially not sure i'd want snow on the ground for weeks on end again. Was a slog with the kids off school, trying to get to work, sort the in laws out etc. Couldn't play golf for 5 weeks, it was a nightmare :-)

Happy to have 2 days of immense snowfall, then a thaw then another immense snowfall 2 weeks later !

I know statistically 09 & 10 were stonking winters, for me as a westie it will be 95/96 that is the stand-out winter. 2010 was good, but I can remember being gutted at "only" getting 10 inches of snow one day when everywhere else was getting buried. When the M 8 got blootered we got rain then snow, we ended up with only a few inches. We also had the huge dump of snow in Feb 2010 which then turned to heavy rain for several hours. I'm going to sound like a bah-humbug but 2009 and 2010 for me were "what could have been" rather than anything properly stand-out.

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon from a wet and much colder isle of Skye! Been chopping logs this morning to feed the beast that is my kitchen logburner. Was a bit breezy here during the week, my weather station recorded wind at 62.5 MPH. Just normal for up here really.

[Guest]

Yeah that is what I meant, didn't word it quite as well as I meant to, which would put us into '47/'63/ winters we don't even have charts for levels of cold and snow.

What's interesting about 1947 is that it didn't happen in isolation, some of the winters during the war were brutal, the ten coldest winters of the past almost 100 years for Scotland are (according to the Met-O), in order from one to ten:

1963

2010

1979

1947

1941

1951

1940

1977

1936

1929

The year refers to the year in which the Jan & Feb fall, but that will be obvious to anyone who follows the weather

[LomondSnowstorm]

What's interesting about 1947 is that it didn't happen in isolation, some of the winters during the war were brutal, the ten coldest winters of the past almost 100 years for Scotland are (according to the Met-O), in order from one to ten:

1963

2010

1979

1947

1941

1951

1940

1977

1936

1929

The year refers to the year in which the Jan & Feb fall, but that will be obvious to anyone who follows the weather

Cheers, yes the interwar winters of '40,'41 and '42 were all pretty brutal and the early fifties had some crackers including 1955 (http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/The-cold-winter-of-1955.htm). They do tend to come in packs, like the winters of the late 70s and early-mid 80s.

Did you see the years in the composite GP was using for January? Some seriously cold months in there: 1970, 1979, 1982, 2010 for example.

[Guest]

Cheers, yes the interwar winters of '40,'41 and '42 were all pretty brutal and the early fifties had some crackers including 1955 (http://www.weatheron...ter-of-1955.htm). They do tend to come in packs, like the winters of the late 70s and early-mid 80s.

Did you see the years in the composite GP was using for January? Some seriously cold months in there: 1970, 1979, 1982, 2010 for example.

I never looked at GP's composite that carefully :lol:

Some of the snow reports from the war winters are epic, 105cm of level snow in Durham is one quote which stands out.

This is quite a good read, but also interesting as the winters are colour coded in terms of snow, and it's easy to see the cycles of snowiness:

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

[Guest]

Here are a couple of pics I took while out with the dogs earlier next to the Tweed in Kelso; when I walked this at 5.30am today I almost walked into the water but the pile of twigs stopped me:

Edited November 23, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[LomondSnowstorm]

I never looked at GP's composite that carefully

Some of the snow reports from the war winters are epic, 105cm of level snow in Durham is one quote which stands out.

This is quite a good read, but also interesting as the winters are colour coded in terms of snow, and it's easy to see the cycles of snowiness:

http://www.neforum2....r/bonacina.html

Cheers.

We should also remember that we've got some significant hill snow on Sunday:

[Zenarcher]

Well it truly shows winter or some sort of cold weather is on the way if XC Weathers forecast is giving me snow for next Friday.

Anyway as LomondSnowstorm said we can expect some hill snow on Sunday and also Tuesday is looking very windy from the North gusts over 50mph are likely, because of the Northerly direction I would expect some wintry weather in some places. Interesting week coming up.

Edited November 23, 2012 by weathermaster

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well it truly shows winter or some sort of cold weather is on the way if XC Weathers forecast is giving me snow for next Friday.

Anyway as LomondSnowstorm said we can expect some hill snow on Sunday and also Tuesday is looking very windy from the North gusts over 50mph are likely, because of the Northerly direction I would expect some wintry weather in some places. Interesting week coming up.

Yes, the -5C uppers just skirt the west of Scotland so some potential for even a bit of low ground snowfall for a time on Tuesday:

[Guest]

The model thread is turning into a bit of a bickerfest, the GFS isn't worth the computer chips it is processed on and there are going to be several short-circuited computers from all the tears dripping into keyboards (ok, I made that last bit up).

I can't see why the GFS is getting slated, it has shown a solution of high pressure on or around Iceland/Greenland on the 1st of Dec at 12z for eight out of the last ten 12z runs. End results for the UK vary due to the orientation and positioning of the high but the general picture has been quite clear for a while now (ten days obviously, if it's ten runs :lol: )

[Northern Strath]

A pretty bitter day today, some wet snow showers this morning before heading to work. Gusty at times and maxing out at 4.6C.

Currently 1.7C

Edited November 23, 2012 by Northern Strath

[LomondSnowstorm]

The model thread is turning into a bit of a bickerfest, the GFS isn't worth the computer chips it is processed on and there are going to be several short-circuited computers from all the tears dripping into keyboards (ok, I made that last bit up).

I can't see why the GFS is getting slated, it has shown a solution of high pressure on or around Iceland/Greenland on the 1st of Dec at 12z for eight out of the last ten 12z runs. End results for the UK vary due to the orientation and positioning of the high but the general picture has been quite clear for a while now (ten days obviously, if it's ten runs :lol: )

It has, I wouldn't question the model itself but it's the link up that's the issue. Broadly we have very good agreement on the heights but at this timescale the nitty gritty starts to matter a bit more. In FI it completely flips and brings in a Bartlet type setup so no trend at +384 after all!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

96:

168

192:

Edited November 23, 2012 by scottish skier

[Guest]

NOGAPS at +180hrs, could be some snow from this, certainly with elevation: