Scotland Regional Discussion

[moffatross]

NIce pics MR, surprised you're not up the gorms for first day of the season!

Thanks. I had my first day of the season at Glenshee on 3'rd November but that was chocolate, not chairlift powered. I'm heading up tomorrow though.

Oddly enough, the reason why I was over in the Borders today was to pick up even more skis.

[November13]

They are currently upgrading the METO wether warnings can't access them....watch this space!

[Sawel]

Even Dundee might see some snow judging from that latest NAE output.

[Big Innes Madori]

Something of interest from the MT!

Big Innes

Quote:

Posted A minute ago

UKMO revision re snow areal extent Sun-Mon:

" New NAE continues the trend of slightly slower timings of arrival of the frontal ppn tomorrow but still produces a substantial snow signal across parts of Scotland (away from the extreme SW) and NE England. It has reduced the southern extent of snow to Yorks now (rather than Lincs/Norfolk as in the previous run). In other words it is converging towards the 06Z GM which expanded the snow area into parts of N England.... the NAE gives broad area of snow from Yorks up to Scotland tomorrow night, with some large totals of fresh snow – see below. Note >10cm just NW of the central Belt of Scotland (peaking nr 14cm inland Argyll/Bute), 4-5cm though much of the Central Belt but as much as 8cm in Glasgow area, 8cm S Uplands and 3-7cm inland NE England and Pennines. With the flow direction being backed to south of east, ponding of cold air could readily allow for snow to accumulate in the Central Belt. 00Z EC also gave support for sig snow but 06Z still GFS much more muted. The greatest risk is for inland Argyll/Bute Perth/Kinross, /Stirling, Grampians, but with an increasing risk of sig snow in the Central Belt esp towards Glasgow. But obviously much uncertainty given differences between NAE and extended UK4... "

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Ian K. Fergusson

Weather Presenter, BBC West

Forecaster, BBC Sport Formula One

Edited December 1, 2012 by Big Innes Madori

[lorenzo]

Great that we are seeing these adjustments and reviews of the output from Ian, some significant totals within that summary. Wish it was tonight !!!!

[November13]

MWIS are going for a mixed bag next week but with more cold than mild:

Less cold conditions will spread in off the Atlantic on Sunday night, albeit well inland (from west coast) in Highland

Scotland, cold air may not be 'scoured out' of some valleys. Otherwise, a thaw of frozen ground up to about 800m.

Heavy showers early next week, of snow and hail on higher areas (locally to low level Highland Scotland).

Turning slightly milder from Thursday or Friday, with only higher Scottish summits remaining below freezing point,

although it may turn colder again next weekend.

[scottishandy]

Is Fergie deliberately ramping? Certainly looking good for central folks.

[mistyqueen]

Something tells me that the White Stuff will miss Skye altogether, apart from the cuillin. It is, however, gettin' chilly. Currently at 1.6 degrees. For those of you who get a wee downfall.......enjoy!

[lorenzo]

GFS 12z has gone all Hollywood this evening !! Some quality eye candy later on in the run. On the way there a strong Northerly, a monster Scandi high, a shredded vortex, an Easterly, a southern Jet in Africa and right at the death a chunk of Vortex inbound on the Atlantic train.

[blitzen]

I suspect LS and Lorenzo's keyboards are red hot at this minute! Jings! would love to see T384 on the 12zs get down to T0hrs!

[airliquide]

Yeah ! Good start for my winter in scotland ! It's snowing in aberdeen ! Litle but suffisant for put some withe powder on the street !

[howham]

Heavy snow here and settling! Everything is white!!

[Michael Kaii]

just seen the bbc weather forecast and a agree were heading for a heavy spell of snow in west lothian but a cant see it turning back to rain does anyone agree with me or do you think there right?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

GFS 12z has gone all Hollywood this evening !! Some quality eye candy later on in the run. On the way there a strong Northerly, a monster Scandi high, a shredded vortex, an Easterly, a southern Jet in Africa and right at the death a chunk of Vortex inbound on the Atlantic train.

That's just crazy output!

Op and control no far away though out to dec 15.

[Cheggers]

Wow, I need to be dragged oot shopping more often. Looking like a few area's could be in for a pasting, I assume Keith Brown has his war room ready.

[NUT]

Guess tomorrow night might be fun. Lamppost watch mode.............READY!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm going to hold off on an updated summary for the moment. The last one wasn't an abject failure as far as forecasting is concerned but our prospects look a little better than they did then. Once the NAE and NMM 6Zs come out I'll firm up on details but at the moment it looks to me as though large swathes of the country are unlikely to see it turning until at least 6am, probably not 9am and for some perhaps not even 12pm on Monday morning.

[Northern Strath]

Covering of snow here from last nights shenanigans has the place nice and white. Currently 0.1C Tomorrow night looking tasty for.... well.... most of us

Highland derby was a cold one, low sun played havoc so spent the entire game with a daft squint and an arm across my brow! Typical derby fare, low in quality but high in drama. ICT 3 Farmers 1 on the replay

Edited December 1, 2012 by Northern Strath

[lorenzo]

Hopefully Fergieweather will also keep us up to date with the evolution of the inbound snowfest, he occasionally drops MOGREPS images into the Model thread too, will we good to see how these shape up.

Coldest night of the year predicted tonight?? Off to a good start with that accolade. ECM brings things back to sensibility after the GFS going off on one, still time for a Saturday Special pub run later.. !

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Latest NAE

EDIT - not; middle chart already posted but who cares, nice to see them all

That single square of pink in the borders in 3 of course covers fort SS.

The snaw off Ireland shows how quickly colder air is following. If you are lucky, snaw might be followed by just a light drizzle at worst before freezing.

No exactly roasting surfaces T's anyway

T2m low:

Edited December 1, 2012 by scottish skier

[A Winter's Tale]

Went for a drive this afternoon with another fantastic wintry sunset and dusk, magical winter colours and shadows to everything. There was some snow on the Campsies, plenty of icy slushy deposits on the roads. The Queen's View had a fantastic view of the snow covered mountains (down to 1500ft) all the way from the Luss Hills to the Ochills. The Trossachs looked stunning and frozen, took a trip around Aberfoyle through wonderful rich Scottish scenery before taking an icy drive through Duke's Pass with a fantastic view of the snow covered Ben Ledi. Loch Venachar looked great as the calm water reflected the sky during dusk. Also another fantastic view looking south above the Lake of Menteith. All in all a fantastic journey through magical Scottish countryside and atmospheric, wintry weather.

Currently -2C at Glasgow Airport and I wonder whether tonight we'll see the temperature drop below the coldest this season (-5C) or even the coldest this year (-7C). In other parts of the UK we've already seen ice days this season and the coldest so far is -7C, hopefully the first -10C of the season tonight. It's shaping up nicely for the first snowfall of December 2012 during Sunday night in many areas and there's a potential for the biggest snowfall of the year for some. The mountains will be pasted, rural areas should also be pasted and even many parts of central lowlands could potentially be pasted. I'd say that parts of Lanarkshire, Stirlingshire, Falkirk into Perthshire and parts of Fife could do very well out of this event and I was delighted to see that Ian Fergusson mentioned that Glasgow could get a serious dumping. The lying snow could be short-lived here, nonetheless it'll be fantastic to see snowfalling, hearing snow reports from elsewhere and potentially to have a wonderful, Scottish-wide significant snow-event. It'll be good to have the first significant and lying snow event of the season out of the way so that we can enjoy the rest of the season without chasing and sweating over snow events. Of course, as ever during any snow event, it's a matter of nowcasting considering all the variables and factors regarding snowfall.

[November13]

Peterhead currently taking a pasting!

Edited December 1, 2012 by lorenzo

[lorenzo]

From the Meto Warnings page.

A frontal system will move eastwards into the UK later on Sunday and into Monday morning. As this frontal system meets very cold air already over many parts of the UK, the rain is expected to turn to snow across northern areas. The extent to which rain turns to snow is very dependent on its timing and intensity hence the situation remains finely balanced. However, at present it looks as if the greatest risk of significant snow is over the northern half of the Yellow area. The situation will be monitored so please watch for possible updates to this warning.

The NMM insistent on making the central belt an ice rink..

NAE For The Win !!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Peterhead currently taking a pasting!

Suddenly feel the need to tell Total it's imperative for me to visit the St. Fergus terminal re our current project with them.

'Just need to check something' etc

[doctormog]

Peterhead currently taking a pasting!

To be fair, that's actually a bit closer to Ellon (at the Toll of Birness). Looks good though.

Those showers up to my north are just on the wrong trajectory to catch here. A few miles or a few degrees in wind angle make all the difference.

We have had a bit of graupel here this morning and a few snow showers this evening - all on to frozen ground, so it all has settled and the ground and side roads have been white all day.