Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Mapantz]

First Yellow warning out for a while now from the Meto for the SW;

http://t.co/DKlKSxDH

Yep! Possibility for 40 - 60mm over the next few days, perhaps more is some localised areas.

Very mild (13°C) but also very windy here. 30mph gusts (not bad within the Purbeck hills) 6mm of rain so far.

I'm enjoying it as i have no work!

[Sainsbo]

Not nice to see the warnings over the SW. Despite having only 27mm of rain so far this month the ground is very saturated still, and with the 5mm we have had today the rivers are already rising fast. Not good..

[fergieweather]

Conditions overnight could prove troublesome with rainfall (15-30mm widely; 40-50mm locally) and our next concern is both the squally heavy rain event later Thurs but perhaps even more so, the latest high-res prog for winds Thursday AM ahead of the frontal rain (gusts widely to 55mph inland; 60-70mph western exposures)

[AWD]

12z NAE has a period of heavy rain over the SW during the early hours and into rush hour tomorrow morning;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=18&PRINT=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&INFO=0&WMO=

[Andy Bown]

Not nice to see the warnings over the SW. Despite having only 27mm of rain so far this month the ground is very saturated still, and with the 5mm we have had today the rivers are already rising fast. Not good..

My goodness, the rain from last night and today has taken my total, just 30 ish miles away from you, to over 60mm! However I think that's because this area had

far more rain on Sunday 4th.

Conditions overnight could prove troublesome with rainfall (15-30mm widely; 40-50mm locally) and our next concern is both the squally heavy rain event later Thurs but perhaps even more so, the latest high-res prog for winds Thursday AM ahead of the frontal rain (gusts widely to 55mph inland; 60-70mph western exposures)

Thank you for the update Ian, I'm looking forward to your Points West forecast in a few hours time - mainly for work purposes with hope that you'll show the rain clearing by dawn, however I fear the worst!

[fergieweather]

just upping rainfall totals tonight to 20-40mm widely based on hot-off-press guidance from Ch Forecaster based on 4km modelling. I think winds Thursday could be a real issue. Truly.

[AWD]

just upping rainfall totals tonight to 20-40mm widely based on hot-off-press guidance from Ch Forecaster based on 4km modelling. I think winds Thursday could be a real issue. Truly.

I notice;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=48&PRINT=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&INFO=0&WMO=

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=uv10&HH=48&PRINT=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&INFO=0&WMO=

Personally it's going to be nice to see some true Autumnal conditions. Interesting times ahead!

[Gibby]

As most people are looking at the virtual Weather World on the Model Output thread some real 'Live' weather is developing in the next 24-48hrs over parts of the UK. I have issued a Weather Warning on my website re heavy rain overnight tonight for my area with totals in excess of 25mm and possibly up to 40mm likely to fall on already saturated ground caused by the last 24 hours rain. I am reasonably confident that flooding could become a problem and newsworthy for parts of the SW and South by tomorrow.

In addition looking forward to Thursday sees a second event developing as a very deep depression winds up to the NW pushing an active trough into the UK, moving slowly East. The biggest concern here is for very strong winds with gusts inland in excess of 50mph later on Thursday while in exposure 60-70mph gusts are likely. This is more than strong enough to cause some structural damage in places. Once more heavy rain will move in later with some more substantial totals likely exasipating the problems. Post your reports and experiences here.

[Sainsbo]

The amount of rain forecast in the SouthWest over the next few days seems to be rising instead of increasing. Now saying 33mm in Swindon tomorrow, with another 30mm spread over Thursday and Friday.

[khodds]

Oh joy. And here was I looking at next week and beyond.. Far to early I know but as with a lot of people, I've been sucked in by the Synoptics.

Just off out to empty my rain gauge... Seems like I may need to!

[fergieweather]

Yes, there's been a disproportionate amount of focus on what we increasingly expect to be a fairly 'typical' & not profoundly cold (& largely dry) spell late this month into early Dec... and scant attention, generally, towards the quIte nasty conditions into next 12 to 48hrs.

[Andy Bown]

Not sure how well this radar grab will come out on the forum.

Regardless of whether it shows up well or not, trust me, if you don't have NW Radar access there is a huge area of rain to the SW moving towards the West Country. The shape of it on the radar suggests that it extends well beyond the radar extent/boundary

EDITED TO SHOW RADAR GRAB AS PROMISED

I hope you don't mind Andy.

Edited November 20, 2012 by gottolovethisweather
attached radar grab as promised

[fergieweather]

FYI - just in from Chief Forecaster at UKMO - we're upgrading to Amber Warning tonight across SW / W Country. Concern growing markedly over impacts in this region from tonight's wave & rain event.

[A.J]

Flippin eck...just got home from work, and looked at the radar....it's going to be pants out there later!

[Polar Bear]

FYI - just in from Chief Forecaster at UKMO - we're upgrading to Amber Warning tonight across SW / W Country. Concern growing markedly over impacts in this region from tonight's wave & rain event.

And Amber it is !! thanks for the heads up..my facebook friends are amazed by my predicability...

keep us posted...hope all stay safe

[Dave Kightley]

Looks like we are in for a wild night

Warnings - Met Office.htm

Edited November 20, 2012 by Dave Kightley

[AWD]

You can see here the mass of cloud around the Biscay area heading our way;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fssatms1.html

[Nights King]

Oh joy more rain... I really hope A37 is passable into whitchurch in the morning!

[Herefordweather]

Feel for you guys down there. Some really heavy bursts here now. (SW Midlands). Expecting some problems around here but nothing like you lot may get.

[AWD]

Going to be windy over the next few days too;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

No doubt the Severn Bridges will be affected.

[Nights King]

Going to be windy over the next few days too;

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack1.gif

No doubt the Severn Bridges will be affected.

No doubt, lets just hope we get bucket loads of the white stuff to compensate us all for this foul nasty weather we are having to endure now!

On the more amusing side though spare a thought my my mother who has a leak in the sun roof of the car! She has around an inch of water in the footwell now so that should be interesting by morning...

[Wilxy]

Alot of rain to come overnight id expect flooding in some areas come morning.

[Rich_Clements]

For those who haven't ventured out, go careful there is lots of localised flooding

On the more amusing side though spare a thought my my mother who has a leak in the sun roof of the car! She has around an inch of water in the footwell now so that should be interesting by morning...

She will have her own personal foot spa whilst driving

[SteveB]

30mm & still counting so far today, which also puts November into 100mm+ months this year.

Basically its every month since April that has recorded 100mm+

Currently standing at 1452mm for the year so far,

[Lyn-M]

38mm in the 24 hours to 09.00 today, including 8mm in the final hour, add that to the 20mm recorded in the previous 24 hours and that's nearly 60mm. It's still raining and the radar shows even more still to come. Glad that I postponed my trip to Taunton today!

November to date...115mm, year do far...1086mm