Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[UV-RAY]

IMO even though the models are loaded with potential down the line there are still no guarantees that this tiny island will be in the mix for any fun and games, for me the outlook paints a chilly one but no signs anywhere in the ensembles of any deep cold. Still better than this time last year.

Edited November 28, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Eskimo]

I thought it was best to post it in here rather than the Model thread to avoid temporary ban.

I'm really getting fed up people changing their tune with the models. One day the models will be good for cold and it will be like, "This is looking really good, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this happened."

and then when it's mild the same people go..

"I had a feeling this would happen, based on my gut instinct...the mild was always going to win out"

Huh? Sort it out!

[Bradowl]

Hi everyone, new on here.

Like the post above mentioning December 1981, it was similar to 2010, very cold with lots of Snow events but followed by a milder second half to winter.

The winters back in the 70s and 80s that had long major Snow events never really got going until after Christmas.

This is something I always look for now days.

[Aaron]

I thought it was best to post it in here rather than the Model thread to avoid temporary ban.

I'm really getting fed up people changing their tune with the models. One day the models will be good for cold and it will be like, "This is looking really good, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this happened."

and then when it's mild the same people go..

"I had a feeling this would happen, based on my gut instinct...the mild was always going to win out"

Huh? Sort it out!

The MOD thread is absolutely ridiculous.. there is no point. Do what I do, stay away from the models, stay away from the forecast, and whatever happens, happens - god knows how many times I've woken up to snow falling without seeing any prior forecast by anyone, or when the forecast was for snow solely for high ground (even the professionals get it wrong occasionally), and it's a lot better than the shambles that is the MOD thread.

For this weekend/Monday, I'm just going to wait and see. Snowfalls are too hard to predict in this country, and it's usually a game of radar and lamppost watching (good example is February 2011, snow forecast above 300m, woke up to heavy snow, and snow settled in Leeds city centre 30m asl).

Edited November 28, 2012 by Aaron

[SnowObsessor90]

The MOD thread is absolutely ridiculous.. there is no point. Do what I do, stay away from the models, stay away from the forecast, and whatever happens, happens - god knows how many times I've woken up to snow falling without seeing any prior forecast by anyone, or when the forecast was for snow solely for high ground (even the professionals get it wrong occasionally), and it's a lot better than the shambles that is the MOD thread.

True, the cold spells of 09/10 and 10/11 came as a really pleasant surprise to me as I'd yet to come across this place so maybe it wouldn't be such a bad idea for me to go back to that for a bit and as you say at least it'd help to retain a bit of sanity if nothing else lol

Edited November 28, 2012 by Anonymous21

[bobbydog]

The MOD thread is absolutely ridiculous.. there is no point. Do what I do, stay away from the models, stay away from the forecast, and whatever happens, happens - god knows how many times I've woken up to snow falling without seeing any prior forecast by anyone, or when the forecast was for snow solely for high ground (even the professionals get it wrong occasionally), and it's a lot better than the shambles that is the MOD thread.

For this weekend/Monday, I'm just going to wait and see. Snowfalls are too hard to predict in this country, and it's usually a game of radar and lamppost watching (good example is February 2011, snow forecast above 300m, woke up to heavy snow, and snow settled in Leeds city centre 30m asl).

i just tried to lighten things up a little in there by pointing out the latest meto update for my area (less chance than most for snow)

Staying cold with overnight frost. Some sunshine but also showers, especially on Saturday, and perhaps turning later to sleet or snow later. Mainly dry with some sunshine for Sunday.

didn't expect to see that.

however, i dropped my son off at the childminder this morning and apparently the talk of the local school was the brief, (3 or 4 minute) SNOW shower! not sleet, proper snow!!

expect the unexpected......

should also say, though i did apologise for off topic in advance, it was deleted almost immediately! then noticed mentions of temporary bans! but then i've been out all day and might have missed something. hope i didnt earn myself a ban- just trying to cheer up 'les miserables' in there

Edited November 28, 2012 by bobbydog

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

The MOD thread is absolutely ridiculous.. there is no point. Do what I do, stay away from the models, stay away from the forecast, and whatever happens, happens - god knows how many times I've woken up to snow falling without seeing any prior forecast by anyone, or when the forecast was for snow solely for high ground (even the professionals get it wrong occasionally), and it's a lot better than the shambles that is the MOD thread.

For this weekend/Monday, I'm just going to wait and see. Snowfalls are too hard to predict in this country, and it's usually a game of radar and lamppost watching (good example is February 2011, snow forecast above 300m, woke up to heavy snow, and snow settled in Leeds city centre 30m asl).

i done that last year in feb and i went to bed when i awoke in morning it was snowing and it wasnt forecast

[leicsnow]

i done that last year in feb and i went to bed when i awoke in morning it was snowing and it wasnt forecast

Same with me in December 2011. Many areas were forecast snow on the night of the 15th/16th, including mine, but I got none. Two days later, I was pleasantly surprised to wake up to a covering on the 18th.

[AutumnMists]

Same with me in December 2011. Many areas were forecast snow on the night of the 15th/16th, including mine, but I got none. Two days later, I was pleasantly surprised to wake up to a covering on the 18th.

Anyone remember April 2008? Goodness me, that was perhaps the most surprising snowfall for me ... here in the North we did get forecast clear skies and a 'late' season frost with temperatures at around -2'C ... when we woke up the next morning it was quite astonishing (and localizationing ... I remember it being around 5 cm and down the valley about 7 miles away it was very green).

Always a problem when 'cloudy skies with very light flurries' is forecast .. in that you simply don't know what's going to happen and before you know it you may well have a coating.

The MOD thread is absolutely ridiculous.. there is no point. Do what I do, stay away from the models, stay away from the forecast, and whatever happens, happens - god knows how many times I've woken up to snow falling without seeing any prior forecast by anyone, or when the forecast was for snow solely for high ground (even the professionals get it wrong occasionally), and it's a lot better than the shambles that is the MOD thread.

For this weekend/Monday, I'm just going to wait and see. Snowfalls are too hard to predict in this country, and it's usually a game of radar and lamppost watching (good example is February 2011, snow forecast above 300m, woke up to heavy snow, and snow settled in Leeds city centre 30m asl).

Yay, a person with some common sense!

All they are doing over there in the MOD is talking about the 'mild' that is to arrive in two weeks time (that didn't seem plausible last night) ... despite the fact we have a whole weekend of Winter to look forward to.

[Floatylight]

Its going to be chilly and crisp for a few days,more than we had last year.

I will just enjoy the change in the weather for now.

As for the mod thread,i didnt know we were up for anything else but a change to slightly colder conditions anyway?

I didnt remember seeeing snow forcast?

I am hoping the even colder weather will come at crimbo!

[AutumnMists]

Its going to be chilly and crisp for a few days,more than we had last year.

I will just enjoy the change in the weather for now.

As for the mod thread,i didnt know we were up for anything else but a change to slightly colder conditions anyway?

I didnt remember seeeing snow forcast?

I am hoping the even colder weather will come at crimbo!

Snow has been in the forecast for some for about a week now (for this weekend). Usual places receiving the falls ... a huge amount of uncertainty though

[I remember Atlantic 252]

To me that 12Z GFS looks zonal and very christmas pudding esque, but the 12Z GFS is too aggressive with the Atlantic, hope its not going to be like early Dec last year, lots of snow on hills but not much here

[AutumnMists]

To me that 12Z GFS looks zonal and very christmas pudding esque, but the 12Z GFS is too aggressive with the Atlantic, hope its not going to be like early Dec last year, lots of snow on hills but not much here

I suppose in your location you get a lot of cold snaps which don't quite make it to your region and the one this weekend looks to be following that ... On a rather more fortunate note though I would definitely expect frosts and all round Wintry temperatures until at least Monday. The uncertainty continues, however

[valiant]

I predict that it will be a bit colder this Winter than it was this Summer just gone and that it will gradually warm up as we head into next Spring. Do I win the prize?

As for the MOD thread, the band of brothers who frequent the discussion remind me that scene in the Deer Hunter where the two guys are playing Russian Roulette and everyone is laying bets. Totally random. I just don't understand how they assign human characteristics to the computer models.

"Model A is toying with the idea of tempting us with a cold snap - while Model B is seriously considering coming into line with the rest so as not to lose face." What ARE they smoking?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

My guess for December is a completely snowless one for Stafford, and low level areas further south, but Scotland will be buried all month, with huge totals, 6 metres of snow up there high levels anyway by 31st

going to be dominated by zonal train, Scotland on cold side of the jet,

N England to have significant snow at times

[AWD]

Perhaps this goes somewhere to explaining the last few days events;

http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/more-patience-required/

[syed2878]

i must say people like snowy eastly and ian brown get a lot of uncalled for flak because they try to bring some realerty in to the discussions ok ian brown not all the time how ever he did say people r over milking the cold snap, sorry if i afend the cold fans and i am one of them.

i must say people like snowy eastly and ian brown get a lot of uncalled for flak because they try to bring some realerty in to the discussions ok ian brown not all the time how ever he did say people r over milking the cold snap, sorry if i afend the cold fans and i am one of them.

[TAFKAP]

My guess for December is a completely snowless one for Stafford, and low level areas further south, but Scotland will be buried all month, with huge totals, 6 metres of snow up there high levels anyway by 31st

going to be dominated by zonal train, Scotland on cold side of the jet,

N England to have significant snow at times

6 metres? Zonal train? Can I have some of what you've been smoking mate? LOL

[cooling climate]

i must say people like snowy eastly and ian brown get a lot of uncalled for flak because they try to bring some realerty in to the discussions ok ian brown not all the time how ever he did say people r over milking the cold snap, sorry if i afend the cold fans and i am one of them.

i must say people like snowy eastly and ian brown get a lot of uncalled for flak because they try to bring some realerty in to the discussions ok ian brown not all the time how ever he did say people r over milking the cold snap, sorry if i afend the cold fans and i am one of them.

Agree entirely. They are or have been accused of being trolls and trouble makers when infact in reality they get it right at least as often as the coldies of which I am one. I have just been reading

through the last months posts in the technical thread and well you can understand the frustration of some posters especially the newer and inexperienced ones.

One or two of the posts in the last day or two are really just feeble attempts to salvage some

credibility. I believe if your wrong say so its only the weather and more often than not it will

get the upper hand as we have seen.

Even the professionals are falable if you remember for a couple of weeks they were forcasting a

well below average november and then come around the 8-10th they changed to normal temperatures

but turning colder as we go into December. Then a few days ago they said rather cold over the

coming weekend and then cold into the following week which has now been changed.Worryingly that

is twice the cold has been downgraded is this a trend we will see during the coming winter.

I have an open mind going forward for there is forcast to be a 20 degree temperature rise

at the 30mb level over the pole in the coming few days according to the ECM strat model. If this

is so then we could see a dramtic switch in the runs with HLB's and increasingly negative AO and

NAO hopefully.

[If Wishes made Weather]

I'm sure though that we will get a fairly cold winter. There doesn't really seem to be any strong signal for mild weather at all. However, I find that many on the MOD thread, when they see (for example) colder automatically think snow, but it could just be quieter, and generally a degree or so cooler than normal without any really snowy weather. I would love to be wrong though remembering those sort of 1980's winters when I was in school and we used to be sent home early because snow started mid morning, we were on the last bus running back to home and then it continued to snow all night and well into the next day and school was closed for a week. Haven't seen anything like that in the UK since then (up the road from us quarry diggers were hauled in to open roads).

[syed2878]

thank you guys for the comments. I just think people have high expectations i think some of us foreget that we live in the u.k and not the arctic or the conternant.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Some very nice charts at the moment check out the ECMWF and GFS.

[Downburst]

I'm sure though that we will get a fairly cold winter. There doesn't really seem to be any strong signal for mild weather at all. However, I find that many on the MOD thread, when they see (for example) colder automatically think snow, but it could just be quieter, and generally a degree or so cooler than normal without any really snowy weather. I would love to be wrong though remembering those sort of 1980's winters when I was in school and we used to be sent home early because snow started mid morning, we were on the last bus running back to home and then it continued to snow all night and well into the next day and school was closed for a week. Haven't seen anything like that in the UK since then (up the road from us quarry diggers were hauled in to open roads).

Your photo is brilliant.

[Downburst]

I predict that it will be a bit colder this Winter than it was this Summer just gone and that it will gradually warm up as we head into next Spring. Do I win the prize?

As for the MOD thread, the band of brothers who frequent the discussion remind me that scene in the Deer Hunter where the two guys are playing Russian Roulette and everyone is laying bets. Totally random. I just don't understand how they assign human characteristics to the computer models.

"Model A is toying with the idea of tempting us with a cold snap - while Model B is seriously considering coming into line with the rest so as not to lose face." What ARE they smoking?

Look here, I think you are going to upset the ECM if you continue that innuendo. Everyone knows it is trying it's best to deliver snow and Siberian cold this weekend. As for JMA, well it struggles with this side of the world and in particular Greenland as it can't get handle on Norwegian, being form Japan and all. GFS is obese and is from America, how dare you upset it. As everyone knows it loses the plot with an easterly. As everyone knows it's the lack of air balloons that's to blame since the Chinese began hoarding them when it got awfully chilly around those parts and they got interested in the forecast and all. More runs needed, all to play for, and just when I was giving up the ECM had to come out with thus Corker and 48Hr, 72 will be EPIC. Will it deliver though? I've seen it before, I told you, I told you.

[Snowy Easterlies]

i must say people like snowy eastly and ian brown get a lot of uncalled for flak because they try to bring some realerty in to the discussions ok ian brown not all the time how ever he did say people r over milking the cold snap, sorry if i afend the cold fans and i am one of them.

i must say people like snowy eastly and ian brown get a lot of uncalled for flak because they try to bring some realerty in to the discussions ok ian brown not all the time how ever he did say people r over milking the cold snap, sorry if i afend the cold fans and i am one of them.

thanks, i love snow as much as anyone, im not a WUM, when i see good charts in the reliable time frame i get excited, i don't get excited at "potential" at T180

Edited November 29, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies