Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[TAFKAP]

We've just had a light flurry of snow IMBY, nothing wet mixed in either. A great example of how you can have upgrades at the last minute considering we were forecast sleet at best.

[Hotspur62]

woke up at 6.45 and it was drizzly and cold at 1.3 degrees.Half hour later it was snowing hard giving a light covering and temp dropped to 0.8 degrees.Is this the starter before the main course is delivered from mid week next week?Looking at models there does seem to be some consistency that the cold spell is on its way but that has happened before only for cold and snow lovers hopes to be dashed!Interesting,very Interesting!!

[Summer Sun]

Cold weather alert upgraded to level 3 status

There is an 90% probability of severe cold weather between 1800 on Tuesday and 0500 on Sunday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

It will be cold or rather cold in most areas over the next few days and into the weekend with overnight frosts and a risk of icy patches. Wintry showers, feeding into eastern and northeastern through today, will lead to some snow accumulations in places. Wednesday night will be particularly cold with a widespread, sharp frost. During Thursday a weather system will move southeast across all areas bringing wet and windy conditions for a time. Rain is also likely to preceded by snow for a time over hills and down to low levels in the east and northeast. This system will clear early on Friday to allow cold air to spread back over the country with further overnight frosts over the weekend.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region

The 2 regions affected by this mostly are Northeast England, Yorkshire & The Humber these are at 90%

http://www.metoffice...oldWeatherAlert

Edited December 5, 2012 by Gavin.

[TAFKAP]

Is anyone else becoming increasingly convinced this will be a winter to remember. Delighted with the surprise snow IMBY this AM and model outputs trending towards some fantastic outcomes. Teleconnections still looking good, the polar vortex still hit for six and even the normally reticent METO is starting to mention strat warming and hint at colder conditions.

[AWD]

An interesting view on this mornings events for some here;

http://t.co/ZgMCedP8

[Gavin Hannah]

Ok, so now i'm back after my month off and just to say, the setup is looking perfect. And with the MET looking towards an easterly even more, I'm def getting excited. So to the models, some very good reliable output on GFS with cold getting upgraded the closer we get to T.0. Very pleasing to see.

So while what I'm posting is just out of reliable range, it does have Dec 2010 written all over it and ties in with the METs toughts.

The ski resorts are open or opening up this week which is good news. Winters of 09/10' and 10/11' saw the resorts open before Xmas and stay open with very healthy snow cover which was a rare occurrance pre 2009. It looks like 12/13' is going to make it 3 out of the past 4.

The current snow and ice situation.

Ladies and gentlemen, we are looking so good right now. I would say it's time to strap in and enjoy the ride this winter. While I'm not going to predict Jan or Feb, I have been saying to everyone I know that this Dec is going to be cold and at times very snowy.

Another all white UK satellite snap this year??

[Heisenberg]

oohhh i just got a tweet from Sian Lloyd....how excited am I....

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

And ! And ! , you can't leave us in suspense ! What did it say ?

[Summer Sun]

Amber warning for snow issued

Regions affected by Amber warning: Central, Tayside & Fife, Grampian, Highlands & Eilean Siar, Strathclyde

Issued at: 1205 on Wed 5 Dec 2012

Valid from: 0300 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

Valid to: 1100 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

After a very cold night with widespread frost, sleet and snow will spread from the west during the early hours of Thursday. 10-15cm of snow is likely to fall above around 400m with some 5-10 cm above about 200m. At lower levels 2 or 3 cm is likely locally before turning to rain from the west through the morning. Despite turning to rain, the lying snow and ice will struggle to melt and this will bring some treacherous conditions. The public should be prepared for the risk of significant disruption to travel, especially over the mate corridor to the east of Glasgow, across Perthshire and over much of inland eastern Scotland. This warning should be viewed along with the Yellow Warning for surrounding areas.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1354622460&regionName=uk

[Eskimo]

oohhh i just got a tweet from Sian Lloyd....how excited am I....

Was it a tweet with her wearing something sexy?

[cheeky_monkey]

Was it a tweet with her wearing something sexy?

Sian Lloyd and sexy dont sit happily with my breakfast

Edited December 5, 2012 by cheeky_monkey

[Bullseye]

This may deleted as its off topic... The snow currently(or was) falling down south in England had closed the Stanford Airport (now reopen) and also buses had to replace trains. My point is with this Beast marching through Europe towards us (like Hilter and his small children) and predicted to hit sometime next week and progessively getting colder then i do really fear for us UK as whole become if we can't prepare/handle for 5cm of snow at most then whats chances for very near future? I could be wrong but i fear a 2010 blacklash when families sadly missed out on Christmas largely because of the UK being unprepared. That being said Moscow was almost at standstill this week after worst snowstorm in 50years i think? Something coming so here to the "Beast from the East". Sorry if i bored everyone and also for being off topic but had to express some discontent at the models of late...

Edited December 5, 2012 by Bullseye

[bobbydog]

erm... who wrote the netweather 'latest news'? come on, own up "WINTRY START BUT IMPROVING" ???? was it Sian Lloyd??

Edited December 5, 2012 by bobbydog

[MKN]

This may deleted as its off topic... The snow currently(or was) falling down south in England had closed the Stanford Airport (now reopen) and also buses had to replace trains. My point is with this Beast marching through Europe towards us (like Hilter and his small children) and predicted to hit sometime next week and progessively getting colder then i do really fear for us UK as whole become if we can't prepare/handle for 5cm of snow at most then whats chances for very near future? I could be wrong but i fear a 2010 blacklash when families sadly missed out on Christmas largely because of the UK being unprepared. That being said Moscow was almost at standstill this week after worst snowstorm in 50years i think? Something coming so here to the "Beast from the East". Sorry if i bored everyone and also for being off topic but had to express some discontent at the models of late...

That worse snowstorm for Moscow equated to 12cms of snow apparently. The southeast were probably unprepared for this morning due to the uncertainty. If this easterly is still on the cards Sunday evening there will be nothing uncertain about whatl fall from the sky therefor we should be ready for it.

Edited December 5, 2012 by SnowTornado

[london-snow]

This may deleted as its off topic... The snow currently(or was) falling down south in England had closed the Stanford Airport (now reopen) and also buses had to replace trains. My point is with this Beast marching through Europe towards us (like Hilter and his small children) and predicted to hit sometime next week and progessively getting colder then i do really fear for us UK as whole become if we can't prepare/handle for 5cm of snow at most then whats chances for very near future? I could be wrong but i fear a 2010 blacklash when families sadly missed out on Christmas largely because of the UK being unprepared. That being said Moscow was almost at standstill this week after worst snowstorm in 50years i think? Something coming so here to the "Beast from the East". Sorry if i bored everyone and also for being off topic but had to express some discontent at the models of late...

I have never heard of Stanford Airport unless Allen Stanford the fraudster opened it before he got sent down...

Oh that airport Stansted Airport yes i agree

Well at least my pay date is this weekend going to stock up on fags and booze with some hefty supply of red bulls something tells me i will need them by this time next week...

[Bullseye]

That worse snowstorm for Moscow equated to 12cms of snow apparently. The southeast were probably unprepared for this morning due to the uncertainty. If this easterly is still on the cards Sunday evening there will be nothing uncertain about whatl fall from the sky therefor we should be ready for it.

The Moscow-St Petersburg motorway has resulted in people being stuck in traffic over 125mile long imagine this on top with no food and no heat and -20 + outside , no thanks! I take your point about being unprepared but even so the snow wasn't sig in anyway but hey that's the UK for you!

[Summer Sun]

I have never heard of Stanford Airport unless Allen Stanford the fraudster opened it before he got sent down...

Oh that airport Stansted Airport yes i agree

Well at least my pay date is this weekend going to stock up on fags and booze with some hefty supply of red bulls something tells me i will need them by this time next week...

It was also known as Standstill airport this morning on Twitter and FB

[Eugene]

It hasn't started yet !

The cold has started Ian, it snowed in many places last night giving a decent covering on high ground, lovely cold crisp day today also here.

[Eskimo]

My temperature hasn't gone and won't go above 5 degrees this week, does that count as a cold spell?

[Coast]

Very good overview here from Liam Dutton:

Why is snow so challenging to forecast in the UK?

As predicted, some parts of the UK had their first snow of the winter season overnight and this morning, leading to problems with ice and travel delays. Amounts of snow varied hugely, with some places having a covering, some just falling snow, and others rain or sleet. If you ask any weather forecaster who works in the UK, they will tell you that it can be very challenging to forecast snow here. The conditions are often marginal, which means that, sometimes, predictions can go wrong.

I thought I’d take a little time to journey through and explain the variety of factors than can determine whether or not snow falls, which will hopefully show how complicated it can be.

Temperature of the air

Temperature is probably one of the most crucial factors when determining whether or not snow is likely to fall. As a general rule of thumb, snow in the UK tends to fall when the temperature is 2C or less. It may sound odd that snow can fall when the temperature is above freezing, but you have to remember that the temperature of the air even a few tens of metres above the surface is colder than at ground level. As a result of this, snowflakes can easily remain intact down to the surface, although they do start to melt. This is why snow that falls with a temperature above freezing tends to be fluffy and wet, as partially melted snowflakes stick together.

Snow that falls with a temperature of 0C or below doesn’t experience any melting. Therefore, it is drier and more powdery – like the snow that is great for skiing. When the temperature is in the range of 2-4C, sleet or rain is likely. However, if rain falls for long enough, the temperature of the air will start to fall. This is because water from rain drops will start to evaporate and cool the air – just like the process of evaporating sweat on your skin cools you down in summer.

If this evaporative cooling continues for long enough, the rain can eventually turn to snow. So as you can see, the temperature is crucial as to what falls from the sky, with even half a degree making a huge difference.

Altitude

The height of a location above sea-level is another highly influential factor on the likelihood of snow. In most cases, the higher up a hill or mountain you go, the colder it gets – roughly by 1C for each 100 metres. This is why snow is always more likely over hills and mountains than lower down. What you may be surprised to know is by how much the chance of snow increases with altitude.

If there is a 20 per cent chance of snow at sea-level, this rises to 35 per cent at 100m, 60 per cent at 200m and around 75 per cent at 300m. This shows how a journey that travels over hills can start off as a rainy one, but can easily turn into a snowy one with a relatively small increase in altitude.

Urban heat

Urban areas are renowned for being slightly warmer than rural areas during winter, due to the large amount of heat generated by city life – buildings, industry and transport. In some cases, this urban warmth can be enough to raise the temperature sufficiently to mean that sleet falls rather than snow. However, to complicate things further, there can be temperature fluctuations within cities too.

As an example, a few years ago, I left work after a night shift at BBC Television Centre in Shepherd’s Bush and it was raining outside. By the time I had reached Ealing – just five miles further west into the suburbs, it was snowing heavily, with a covering of snow on the ground. I phoned work to let them know that it was snowing, and they said that it was still raining in Shepherds Bush!

Such differences in precipitation over a short distance are extremely hard for weather computer models to capture, adding to the uncertainty in snow forecasts.

Distance from the coast

The UK is an island surrounded by relatively warm water, which means that in winter, temperatures in coastal areas are kept slightly higher than further inland. Again, with temperature being so crucial in determining what falls from the sky, it means that whilst snow falls inland, a zone of around 5-10 miles from the coast, will see rain or sleet instead.

Wind strength and precipitation intensity

As mentioned earlier, if rain falls for long enough, evaporative cooling can gradually lower the temperature, resulting in it turning to snow. This process is most effective when winds are light, because colder air from aloft descends to the surface more readily, as the air isn’t being mixed up by the wind.

The intensity of the falling precipitation is also influential. Light rain is generally less likely to turn to snow than heavier rain in this way, because less moisture is available for evaporative cooling to take place. All of the above show just how many factors need to be taken into consideration when forecasting snow. It can be a real challenge and illustrate that whilst we get it right most of the time, sometimes, things don’t go as planned.

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/snow-challenging-forecast-uk/2568

[Summer Sun]

Winter grips Europe

Winter weather brought Stockholm's airports to a standstill as 20 centimetres of snow fell on Wednesday morning. Rail and road travel was also disrupted. BBC Weather's Chris Fawkes takes a look at the weather across Europe.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/20607297

[fUnKy]

oohhh i just got a tweet from Sian Lloyd....how excited am I....

Lucy Verasamy Tweeted me.. beat that

[Methuselah]

Lucy Verasamy Tweeted me.. beat that

Who?

[cheeky_monkey]

My temperature hasn't gone and won't go above 5 degrees this week, does that count as a cold spell?

That's BBQ weather over here

[fUnKy]

Who?

The weather girl of your dreams, just you haven't had a name for her till now!