Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[NL]

Certainly seems a lot of folk have memory loss on here. Might have something to do with this.

http://www.theweek.c...use-memory-loss

Edited December 19, 2012 by NL

[Village]

Not exactly sure how this winter can be a carbon copy of last winter seeing as how last winter we didnt even get a frost last year here and this year we have had many many frosts and over a week of lying snow already

I guess your winter last year was exceptionally unusual if you didnt get a frost during the whole winter.

Down here in the south we had severe frosts at the beginning of the winter just like this year and the Met Office issued a category three (the most severe) warning of the extremely low temperatures which we did experience again during February this year. We had lots of snow in Essex too.

They even threatened to close Gatwick airport because there was so much snow at one stage if memory serves me well.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Village

[Aaron]

Doesn't take much to close either of those airports!

[Summer Sun]

Not exactly sure how this winter can be a carbon copy of last winter seeing as how last winter we didn't even get a frost last year here and this year we have had many many frosts and over a week of lying snow already

There were 5 nights here in December last year when a frost occurred this month we've had 7 sub zero nights

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think we are well overdue a notably cold February. We had December 2010 and January 2010 was at least 2.0C below the average, so I think we are overdue a February that is at least 2.0C below the average and I mean against the 1961-90 average.

Yes I think the elastic is well stretched on this band!

Februarys recently have been very springlike, with the exception of last year at the beginning of the month.

I ,personally, would love to see a severe Jan & Feb scenario.....would certainly be interesting. December though, in my opinion, is THE best winter month if you can get the cold in. Why? Well it's psychological....the days are still drawing in and you know 2 more months of winter are on their way after the month is out. Come Jan and Feb you get people talking about daffodils and snowdrops!

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes I think the elastic is well stretched on this band!

Februarys recently have been very springlike, with the exception of last year at the beginning of the month.

I ,personally, would love to see a severe Jan & Feb scenario.....would certainly be interesting. December though, in my opinion, is THE best winter month if you can get the cold in. Why? Well it's psychological....the days are still drawing in and you know 2 more months of winter are on their way after the month is out. Come Jan and Feb you get people talking about daffodils and snowdrops!

Feb 2010 was underrated IMO, it did not deliver that much for me in Salford, but the snow cover in the pennines from what people have told me was pretty constant, also was in the West Midlands for a few nights around 17th (ish) and had an inch or more and that event delivered an even better amount further south, i think people under rate it because of a) what went before, and b what might have been if model output at mid ranges would have verified.

Edited December 19, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Aaron]

Feb 2010 was underrated IMO, it did not deliver that much for me in Salford, but the snow cover in the pennines from what people have told me was pretty constant, also was in the West Midlands for a few nights around 17th (ish) and had an inch or more and that event delivered an even better amount further south, i think people under rate it because of a) what went before, and what might have been if model output at mid ranges would have verified.

We had a good snowfall in Feb 2010 - it was actually similar to Jan 2010 in terms of temperature, but no ice days.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Aaron

[feb1991blizzard]

We had a good snowfall in Feb 2010 - it was actually similar to Jan 2010 in terms of temperature, but no ice days.

I hazard a guess that was on a sunday around the 20th (ish) unless you mean the showers from the North Easterly penetrated far enough inland early in the month.

[Summer Sun]

Yes I think the elastic is well stretched on this band!

February's recently have been very springlike, with the exception of last year at the beginning of the month.

I ,personally, would love to see a severe Jan & Feb scenario.....would certainly be interesting. December though, in my opinion, is THE best winter month if you can get the cold in. Why? Well it's psychological....the days are still drawing in and you know 2 more months of winter are on their way after the month is out. Come Jan and Feb you get people talking about daffodils and snowdrops!

Yes although February used to be our coldest winter month recently it has felt very spring like with lots of sunshine and temperatures into the teens the one exception is 2010

Feb 2012 high 16.1c - Got a BBQ on the 28th it was a dry, sunny and warm day with a high of 16.1c

Feb 2011 high 14.0c

Feb 2010 high 8.5c - A cold month through out with snow

Feb 2009 high 13.9c

Feb 2008 high 13.3c

Talking of daffodils the daffs were popping out of the ground here on Christmas day last year

Edited December 19, 2012 by Gavin.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes I think the elastic is well stretched on this band!

Februarys recently have been very springlike, with the exception of last year at the beginning of the month.

I ,personally, would love to see a severe Jan & Feb scenario.....would certainly be interesting. December though, in my opinion, is THE best winter month if you can get the cold in. Why? Well it's psychological....the days are still drawing in and you know 2 more months of winter are on their way after the month is out. Come Jan and Feb you get people talking about daffodils and snowdrops!

I do agree thats what most people think, however, if you would have given me the strat forecast, teleconnections and GP's winter forecast, i would not be worried one bit, the fact that we were so close and just missed out makes you wonder whether we will just end up being unlucky, the real downside for me about hunting for a good late winter is there is no leeway, no margin for error, the closer to the end, its do or die once you get into feb, i probably felt better last year though strangely, mainly because the first half of winter was never going to deliver, strangely again though, it delivered more snow than december this year, so the point i am really trying to make is that if you could guarantee me an absolutely belting snow event at the end of winter right now, i would prefer it than if you could guarantee a Dec 2010, but when it gets close to the end you just feel the chance is slipping away - physcological definately, but no more than that, a belting Easterly can deliver for even the South up until mid March IMO, no more or no less than in Dec

[Aaron]

I hazard a guess that was on a sunday around the 20th (ish) unless you mean the showers from the North Easterly penetrated far enough inland early in the month.

21st, so close.

Very mild temperatures towards the end of February are not unusual, the record high here is 17.5C.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Aaron

[Don]

i probably felt better last year though strangely, mainly because the first half of winter was never going to deliver

This is a good point. It was unlikely that last winter was going to deliver anything noteworthy before mid January. Patience was the message last winter and as a result, there was less panic at this time!

[sundog]

This is a good point. It was unlikely that last winter was going to deliver anything noteworthy before mid January. Patience was the message

last winter and as a result, there was less pani

c at this time!

i think this yr people have felt badly let down so far after all the potential that the models were showing near the start of this month and are probably worried that it will be a frustrating winter. i think its way too early to hit the panic button yet myself.

[Don]

i think this yr people have felt badly let down so far after all the potential that the models were showing near the start of this month and are probably worried that it will be a frustrating winter. i think its way too early to hit the panic button yet myself.

Exactly, that's my point. After much potential, this December has turned out to be a let down but I'm not writing winter off just yet. I will think about writing it off if come early Feb the outlook still looks bleak. However, for now, like others I do fear that it could well be a frustrating winter and as I've said before, with most LRF models in broad agreement of a zonal pattern this does give me cause for concern.

[feb1991blizzard]

This is a good point. It was unlikely that last winter was going to deliver anything noteworthy before mid January. Patience was the message last winter and as a result, there was less panic at this time!

Yes, its almost as if the pressure was on straight away this winter, i know that seems a crazy thing to say, but thats what resulted in some of the wrist slashing over the first failed easterly, its fairly decent odds on now that i finish with lower snowfall totals than Dec last year, yet hemispherically speaking, the upper pattern has been far more conducive this year!

[feb1991blizzard]

Im just hoping that split vortex in the strat is not just a fluke and will show on future runs, lets hope that the stratospheric displaced Bartlett across the other side of the hemisphere can make inroads into the polar regions.

[feb1991blizzard]

Im not trying to compare these against each other because there are differences but the question is, is it possible with the stratospheric profile over the Northern Hemisphere that we could get a decent cold and snowy spell in the second half of jan?

HAVE FAITH - NO SURRENDER, if come 20 days time the h500 output is still the same then yes, i will say it is looking like the end, but just give it another 25 days!

Edited December 27, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Eugene]

Environmental agency say the risk of flooding will last until the spring/summer.

What they mean by this is not necessarily we are in for a wet few months, its just the ground is so saturated with water and with evaporation levels low until the spring, the ground will just not dry out, what we desperately need is a prolonged cold spell to freeze it until the stronger spring sun comes and helps dry it out, a few days of mild sunny weather in January won't help much at all.

[Summer Sun]

Well with December almost over we can now have a look and see how good the LFR's have been for this month

Firstly Netweather

After a cold first half of December the Prolonged Cold Spells Likeliest in December & January seems a good call for December

Rainfall Below Average - Low Confidence - Every chance that could be the case yet even though December has been wet

A good call by Netweather for December

The Weather Outlook

Temperature: Slightly below average - That looks a good call CET is 5.1C currently stands at 4.5 to the 28th

Precipitation: Below average - Well they've got that wrong but to be fair I don't think anyone saw this amount of rain coming

A fair call by TWO for December

Met Check

Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall. - They got the wetter than average spot on the temperature they've got right for the second half of the month first half wrong

Another good call for December only there temperature call has stopped it from been a perfect call

[Ninman]

Looks like the CFS may be picking up on the forthcoming strat changes:

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the CFS may be picking up on the forthcoming strat changes:

792 hours away hours away so I would take it with a huge pinch of salt

Edited December 30, 2012 by Gavin.

[Ninman]

792 hours away hours away so I would take it with a huge pinch of salt

I agree, I'm not expecting it to materialise but it may be the start of a trend, lets see how it develops over the next couple of weeks

[AWD]

A few tweets from Big Joe, talking about Greenland blocking;

" major stratwarm and building block over Greenland is similar to set up in Jan 1985. Not likely but not laughable... later"

" Fact is major blocking is developing and neg EPO in longer term is similar to dam bursting cold outbreaks..dec 83, jan 85"

" ECMWF 360 ensemble likely can not hold.Greenland blocks, Euro troughs neg epo stratwarm lend little support to east ridge"

Edited January 2, 2013 by AWD

[feb1991blizzard]

NOGAPS gives support to an early cold outbreak, im not buying into it setting in this early but its possible an onset coukd happen earlier than looked likely a few days ago.

[AWD]

From Joe B on twitter;

GFS 2m temp anomalies;