Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[Andy_]

Which of course therefore made his assumption correct regarding the cold weather prediction he made, unfortunately for the UK, we are only going to get a "tickle" of that cold air. It must be said, the cold air over Scandi is most certainly not the coldest we've ever seen but snowfall is quite widespread though.

At least its there though, can't be too difficult to tap into that cold at some point before the end of the month - shortwave depending of course as always

[The PIT]

Worst start to the winter for many a year. Apart from one sleet event not one snow flake has fallen here. Amazing considering we're firmly below normal.

[Summer Sun]

The Met office have 5 weather warnings out tonight these are for, Rain, Ice, Snow, Wind and Fog

Ice

Issued at: 1343 on Wed 12 Dec 2012

Valid from: 2100 on Wed 12 Dec 2012

Valid to: 1100 on Thu 13 Dec 2012

Showers will continue to affect parts of northern Scotland through Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Between the showers temperatures will fall away below freezing with icy stretches forming. The public should be aware that roads and pavements may become icy as a result, particularly those that are untreated.

Fog

Issued at: 1600 on Wed 12 Dec 2012

Valid from: 1805 on Wed 12 Dec 2012

Valid to: 1100 on Thu 13 Dec 2012

Patchy freezing fog, already affecting parts of northeast England is expected to become more widespread and locally dense on Wednesday evening and to persist into Thursday morning. A few patches of fog may persist through Thursday afternoon. With visibility reduced to below 100 m at times, the public should be aware that this may cause disruption to transport.

Snow

Issued at: 1646 on Wed 12 Dec 2012

Valid from: 0005 on Thu 13 Dec 2012

Valid to: 1000 on Thu 13 Dec 2012

An area of snow is expected to move northwards across the southwest of Scotland during the early hours of Thursday and to clear away later on Thursday morning. It could give slushy deposits of around 1 to 2 cm on the lower routes with up to 5 cm of snow possible over the higher routes. Some ice is possible as well. The public are advised to take extra care.

Rain 1

Issued at: 1217 on Wed 12 Dec 2012

Valid from: 0600 on Fri 14 Dec 2012

Valid to: 0600 on Sat 15 Dec 2012

A band heavy rain is expected to spread northeastwards across Northern Ireland on Friday morning then across Scotland later in the day, clearing Orkney early on Saturday. The rain is expected to be accompanied by gale force east or southeast winds gusting to over 60 mph on exposed coasts. Some snow is also expected for a time over Scottish mountains. The public should be aware of the possibility of flooding and disruption to travel.

Rain 2

Issued at: 1431 on Wed 12 Dec 2012

Valid from: 0300 on Fri 14 Dec 2012

Valid to: 1500 on Fri 14 Dec 2012

Heavy rain is expected to spread northeastwards across the UK during Friday. Wales and southwestern England will be affected during the early hours and into the morning. Here the public should be aware of the possibility of flooding and disruption to travel.

Wind

Issued at: 1140 on Wed 12 Dec 2012

Valid from: 1800 on Fri 14 Dec 2012

Valid to: 1800 on Sat 15 Dec 2012

East to southeast winds will steadily increase during Friday with gusts of 70-80 mph likely by Friday evening and lasting for a time into Saturday. Winds should slowly ease through Saturday. In addition, there could be a period of snow which may give accumulations of a few cm accompanied by drifting, with blizzard conditions possible, especially on high ground, before turning to rain. The public should be aware that there could be disruption to transport

[AWD]

Interesting article from the Meto that could help you learn about the frosts & types of frosts you may have had recently;

http://t.co/R0ydu8mT

[AWD]

This was posted by Big Joe on twitter.

I don't know how reliable this version of the model is, but that shows a rather warm Europe/UK during Mid January.

[Village]

Its probably long overdue for us to have an above average warmer winter. The last four winters in Essex have seen plenty of frost, ice and snow. I cant remeber the last time we had a warm zonal winter like we used to in the late 1980's and early 1990's.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Village

[Weather-history]

Its probably long overdue for us to have an above average warmer winter. The last four winters in Essex have seen plenty of frost, ice and snow. I cant remeber the last time we had a warm zonal winter like we used to in the late 1980's and early 1990's.

Last winter was above average overall, yes there was a cold fortnight during February but it did not cancel out that very mild Christmas to mid January period.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2012/winter.html

Edited December 18, 2012 by Weather-history

[Cheshire Freeze]

This was posted by Big Joe on twitter.

I don't know how reliable this version of the model is, but that shows a rather warm Europe/UK during Mid January.

Wow look at the extent of that anomalous warmth across Europe and Russia. It certainly backs up the seasonal models. I've not seen snow yet and I won't be seeing it for a long time to come if that comes off!

[Aaron]

Its probably long overdue for us to have an above average warmer winter. The last four winters in Essex have seen plenty of frost, ice and snow. I cant remeber the last time we had a warm zonal winter like we used to in the late 1980's and early 1990's.

Long overdue? Are you kidding me?!

[IanR]

I think Dec 2010 has led us to believe cold winters are back again, but are they, despite that month they have been fairly average overall IMO, well here anyway , I do agree with Village that we are long overdue a run of above average temperatures, but more so for the summer months

[Weather-history]

I think Dec 2010 has led us to believe cold winters are back again, but are they, despite that month they have been fairly average overall IMO, well here anyway , I do agree with Village that we are long overdue a run of above average temperatures, but more so for the summer months

Winter 2009-10 was definitely not average.

[Froze were the Days]

Interesting...very cold North America, shall be keeping an eye on their weather in the next few weeks.

[Derp Patrol]

This is normal winter weather, it should be mild and wet in the UK. Much like northerners complain in Summer, people who constantly complain about not getting snow should move to Siberia or Canada!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This is normal winter weather, it should be mild and wet in the UK. Much like northerners complain in Summer, people who constantly complain about not getting snow should move to Siberia or Canada!

Yeah, but winters never used to be this wet, used to be a standard 2 hour rain band then bright, the amount of times it rains all day now is unreal

[Aaron]

People have every right to complain about the weather, especially on a weather forum where the last thing most people want is 'average' which usually equates to boring. What makes you think it is so easy to move? People have their entire life here, family, friends, work.. seriously, think before posting.

[IanR]

Winter 2009-10 was definitely not average.

yes I remember that being a cold one now, I stick to the belief we are overdue an above average spell of temperatures, lets hope it comes in the summer months, i doubt it will come anytime soon, despite the mild....ish spell we are in. I would bet January will be below as well, could be wrong but I just have a feeling .

Edited December 18, 2012 by IanR

[damianslaw]

Its probably long overdue for us to have an above average warmer winter. The last four winters in Essex have seen plenty of frost, ice and snow. I cant remeber the last time we had a warm zonal winter like we used to in the late 1980's and early 1990's.

As stated, last winter was above average with a very mild period from mid Dec- mid Jan, and a mild second half to February, we did though see quite a severe spell of cold weather in the first 12 days of February.

2010/11 winter was one of two halves, last week of Nov through to early Jan was exceptionally cold, but the rest of the winter was positively mild especially February.

We saw two very mild winters in 06/07 and 07/08, so I think we can say we have had our share of very mild weather in winter in recent years. However, the cold and mild have balanced themselves out unlike the winters from 97/98 to 07/08 when we had an endless run of mostly mild and at times very mild weather in the winter with only the occasional notable shortlived cold spell - Jan and Feb 01 being two quite decent months for cold weather.

My hunch and it is just a hunch is the second half of winter 12/13 will be persistantly cold and possibly very cold indeed, and the start to the New Year at best will be average.. and the spell of weather we are enduring now is likely to end up the mildest period of the year - and it isn't particularly mild at all..

[Don]

Wow look at the extent of that anomalous warmth across Europe and Russia. It certainly backs up the seasonal models. I've not seen snow yet and I won't be seeing it for a long time to come if that comes off!

Not a nice sight for cold lovers that's for sure. I saw a flurry during the first week of December and hopefully that wasn't my snow fix for Winter 2012/13, although I am starting to get a nagging feeling! Lets hope the long range models change their outlooks PDQ!

Edited December 18, 2012 by Don

[Weather-history]

I think we are well overdue a notably cold February. We had December 2010 and January 2010 was at least 2.0C below the average, so I think we are overdue a February that is at least 2.0C below the average and I mean against the 1961-90 average.

[Village]

As stated, last winter was above average with a very mild period from mid Dec- mid Jan, and a mild second half to February, we did though see quite a severe spell of cold weather in the first 12 days of February.

2010/11 winter was one of two halves, last week of Nov through to early Jan was exceptionally cold, but the rest of the winter was positively mild especially February.

We saw two very mild winters in 06/07 and 07/08, so I think we can say we have had our share of very mild weather in winter in recent years. However, the cold and mild have balanced themselves out unlike the winters from 97/98 to 07/08 when we had an endless run of mostly mild and at times very mild weather in the winter with only the occasional notable shortlived cold spell - Jan and Feb 01 being two quite decent months for cold weather.

My hunch and it is just a hunch is the second half of winter 12/13 will be persistantly cold and possibly very cold indeed, and the start to the New Year at best will be average.. and the spell of weather we are enduring now is likely to end up the mildest period of the year - and it isn't particularly mild at all..

My hunch is as I stated before; that this could be the first warm, zonal winter we have had for some years because it is well overdue ....its been five years at least since the last proper zonal winter without a good measure of snow across the country.

Last year was not a zonal winter, it was very mixed. We had two bouts of cold and severe winter weather and some record minimums recorded due to the Meridional nature and blocking at times. The Met Office issued a level three severe weather warning at the end of January this year for the severe cold which came right at the beginning of February and continued for a few weeks. Thats the opposite to a Zonal winter where strong westerly winds race across the UK bringing lots of rain, wind, warmth and cloud with little or no snow in lowland UK.

Just to express how much colder on average our winters have been over recent years; It is typical of this country to experience three zonal winters out of every four. The last five have been of a meridional nature with blocking or a mixture of zonal and meridional. As a result our average winter temperatures here in the UK over the three winter months have been significantly lower than they were twenty five years ago when UK temperatures were on a strong warming trend. Our SST's (sea temps) have also been recording lower as a result and Cod stocks in the south have incresed again in recent years in the south.

If we dont experience a typical zonal winter again this year it will simply again confirm that temperatures here in the UK have not only stopped rising over the last decade but again show no signs of returning to warming.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Village

[Village]

I think we are well overdue a notably cold February. We had December 2010 and January 2010 was at least 2.0C below the average, so I think we are overdue a February that is at least 2.0C below the average and I mean against the 1961-90 average.

Lets hope so, although I have to say that last February in Essex we broke many record minimum temps with the extreme cold spell.

[syed2878]

well lets hope we don't return to those mild onionsty winters of the mid to late 90's any time soon. Although i don't hold much hope for this winter.

[Summer Sun]

well lets hope we don't return to those mild onionsty winters of the mid to late 90's any time soon. Although i don't hold much hope for this winter.

I can see this winter been a carbon copy of last winter only this time its likely to be wetter than average for some, there is little sign of anything cold away from Scotland and at times Northern England out to the 16th of January from today Met office outlooks

[garbagebags]

I can see this winter been a carbon copy of last winter only this time its likely to be wetter than average for some, there is little sign of anything cold away from Scotland and at times Northern England out to the 16th of January from today Met office outlooks

Not exactly sure how this winter can be a carbon copy of last winter seeing as how last winter we didnt even get a frost last year here and this year we have had many many frosts and over a week of lying snow already

[Village]

Yeah Gavin, its a good analogy I think comparing this winter to last years if one is hoping for another cold snap in February. We have already had a week or two of very cold temperatures ...down to -12C in Scotland and even -10C quite widely here in England. I have had three ice days already this season where the temp didnt rise above zero. So as it warms up this weekend and continues warm for a few weeks this will simply bring the temps back to the average again.

The winter is all to play for though.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Village