Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[thesnowman]

I'd love to know the stats so far on this winter... for me mild and wet, about 3 days of frost in October, no snow within 500 miles, and the date 4th January!!

Surely it is it the least snowiest winter EVER! I'd love to know if this is the case or is it just a perception

[Bristawl Si]

From Joe B on twitter;

GFS 2m temp anomalies;

With the warmer sector over France that indicates to me that the South of England will be on the 'right side' of a LP along the Channel....maybe?

Or am i interpreting wrong?

[AWD]

With the warmer sector over France that indicates to me that the South of England will be on the 'right side' of a LP along the Channel....maybe?

Or am i interpreting wrong?

The main things I took from that chart are;

- The anomalous warmth over Greenland

- The anomalous cold over Eastern Europe/Scandinavia, which would be welcome in any easterly flow we may receive

In terms of pressure, its hard to tell really. It has the look of southerly tracking lows about it though, with depressions focused around the Biscay area, with cold easterly air on the northern flank of depressions ( France, Southern UK etc ) and warmer air off the Atlantic being pumped up over Africa and into the Med sea.

Like I said though, hard to tell & i could be wrong with what i said, but a decent enough chart for our neck of the woods.

[summer blizzard]

It looks to me like a combination of the stratosphere and MJO will deliver a fairly quick tropospheric response to colder conditions in around 10 days.

I do advise caution to people however because whilst i am confident that the worst we will get is high pressure over the UK (cold, sunny and dry) i do advise people to remember that we could well end up in a situation like last February where we get the cold flow but synoptics are not favourable for widespread snow.

[AWD]

Another couple of tweets/images from Big Joe;

2m GFS temp anomaly show Europe entering the freezer, including the UK;

AO heading very negative;

[cheeky_monkey]

Another couple of tweets/images from Big Joe;

2m GFS temp anomaly show Europe entering the freezer, including the UK;

AO heading very negative;

didnt he tweet this kind of stuff about the december just gone...his rep took a major pounding last winter in N.America.

[AWD]

didnt he tweet this kind of stuff about the december just gone...his rep took a major pounding last winter in N.America.

I think so, yeah.

I've noticed one or two rather heated debates on his twitter feed.

He sounds rather bullish about extreme cold for parts of the US soon.

[garbagebags]

Is no-one remotely interested that it looking increasingly likely we might have blocking and snow in just a week's time?

Put down the strat thread and pick up the winter thread. The SSW is a given now, lets see what our weather will be.

[AWD]

Another temperature anomsly chart courtesy of Joe B;

[Ninman]

Is no-one remotely interested that it looking increasingly likely we might have blocking and snow in just a week's time?

Put down the strat thread and pick up the winter thread. The SSW is a given now, lets see what our weather will be.

It's snowtime!!

Although more realistically it will just be cold!

[Chris W]

The GFS model output this morning has been nothing short of breathtaking in FI. The cold spell is coming to Britain...the day after tomorrow!

Just a little joke there, but with the warm air advection west of the UK to east of Greenland consistently being modelled for the next few days the scenario of strong high-latitude blocking and a severe north-easterly cold outbreak looks increasingly likely.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Chris W

[SP1986]

I'm not sure it's a great time to have an exceptional, long term cold, potential bordering on severe right now. Given the very wet year up to now has had a major impact on our crops, a severe cold spell would cause a ridiculous amountains of problems, making some food very expensive in a time we could do without it happening.

Although that wont go down well with the seasone cold enthusiasts, sometimes you have to look at the issues, as well as the fun and excitement.

Edited January 8, 2013 by SP1986

[fluid dynamic]

Having been lurking since October last year, just joined up.

Its fascinating stuff and I have much respect for the obvious professionals (practicing and retired) on Netweather and the large number of amateurs who are well on their way !

The fascination for me is the struggle with the compressible fluids you deal with - I deal with the non compressible variety in models and thank jaysus that I get reliable answers that are borne out in practice. (I am a fast-approaching-middle-age-chartered civil engineer dealing mostly with water infrastructure and treatment).

I guess I am a closet warmist as I like to ride my motorbikes and ice is no good for that. If I haven't been banned for that comment and you are still reading, you may be pleased to hear that I also enjoy a bit of cold (ski holiday !) and thanks to your 'wonderful insights and expertise' I put an expensive set of winter tyres on the car in December just before THAT episode

The upper atmosphere driving the surface and the link between is newish to me and I am here reading all about. You complain about the flip-flopping of CFD models with compressible fluids? Well we aint going to get any better than that without a significant breakthrough. We have to enjoy it for what it is, its a fabulous area of science and tech with such big implications for us all.

Maybe now I've joined I can start an 'ignore' list ? hahahahha , jesting, hi to all of you !

Edited January 9, 2013 by fluid dynamic

[cheeky_monkey]

I'm not sure it's a great time to have an exceptional, long term cold, potential bordering on severe right now. Given the very wet year up to now has had a major impact on our crops, a severe cold spell would cause a ridiculous amountains of problems, making some food very expensive in a time we could do without it happening.

Although that wont go down well with the seasone cold enthusiasts, sometimes you have to look at the issues, as well as the fun and excitement.

if it is food prices you are worried about you need to look what is happening further a field than the UK..The UK only produces a very small fraction of the global food basket.

[Aaron]

the biggest issue we have regarding crops is what is happening elsewhere - baking heatwaves in the US, deluges in China, to name a few. our crops are affected too during adverse weather (obviously), but it's miniscule compared to what happens elsewhere.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Aaron

[Eugene]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?temp=1&x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0

Good to see the OP at the top line in 2M temperatures next week.

[Summer Sun]

First cold weather alert of 2013 issued

http://www.metoffice...oldWeatherAlert

NE England

On Saturday morning winds will begin to turn easterly, then northeasterly with snow showers coming onto the east coast. Temperatures will likely fall below threshold with sharp overnight frosts. Significant accumulations of snow are possible in places. Further snow showers are expected on Sunday.

SE England

A band of rain, sleet or snow will spread across the region with significant snow accumulations possible, especially in northern and eastern parts of the region.

SW England

The southwest will be cold with some rain, sleet and snow, although the risk of reaching the temperature criteria is perhaps slightly less.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Snow and Ice warnings are now out for various parts of the UK this weekend

Eastern Scotland down to Yorkshire and Humber side

Turning colder this weekend with snow showers likely to affect eastern coastal counties. Amounts of snow are uncertain and are likely to be highly variable with some places seeing very little. However, 5-10 cm could accumulate locally, particularly over hills, with icy surfaces an additional hazard. The public should be aware of the potential for localised disruption to travel.

South west England and Wales

Rain will turn increasingly to snow during the course of Saturday across more eastern parts of Wales and the southwest Midlands, firstly over high ground, and later to low levels. There is the potential for 5-10 cm of snow to accumulate on ground above 200 metres with localised accumulations of 2-5 cm eventually at lower levels. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

North West England, Northern Ireland, Strathclyde, Highlands & Eilean Siar and Orkney & Shetland are free of warnings

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&fcTime=1357732860&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&regionName=uk

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to say now i am fearing the worst but i certainly for one would not be writing off the rest of jan EVEN IF THE GFS VERIFYS IN ITS ENTIRETY, you can even see that with a massive trough out west it is never true zonality, it wants to disrupt and send energy southwards and you can see slight height rises to the North, a very slight upgrade on the 0z, that due to the effects of the ssw i would say and would still expect upgrades int the 10-15 day range as we go through next few days although we have been there a thousand times and that wont be what people want to hear if this near term to 10 day chance of snow collapses or massively downgrades, lots of slider chances later on among the GEFS and dont forget the atlantic quietens down at the end of jan traditionally, i think personally although people on here probably wont agree, we would have been better off with the effects of this SSW to take hold in feb, i just dont think the atlantic would be as keen to fire up and we would have more margin for error and maybe a better chance of a long fetch convective easterly.

[AWD]

Nice video here on the upcoming possible events from the Met Office;

http://t.co/fsfMh8M5

[Summer Sun]

Cold weather alert updated and extended

Issued at: Friday 11 January 2013 at 09:49

There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/snow between 0600 on Saturday and 0600 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

The snow event on Monday may bring 2 to 5cm quite widely across England as it spreads southeastwards, with greater than 5cm falling over hills. This warning may be extended early next week.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

[summer blizzard]

Anybody know when the last time we had such a widespread snow event was as Friday.

[Roger J Smith]

Then after Friday there is potential for a heavy snowfall or even a blizzard-like storm across southern England on Sunday night into Monday, if any model but the GFS is correct today. Deep low pressure tracks from west of Ireland to northwest France and into the Channel region. With the depth of cold over snow-covered Britain, even the weak uppers available should be enough for a largely snow outcome to this storm and snow potential would be 20-40 cms. I would rate Friday as 10-20 cm potential for most.

Last time so widespread? Could be Feb 1991 perhaps, not sure on that. End of Jan 2009 was fairly widespread, no?

[kold weather]

Anybody know when the last time we had such a widespread snow event was as Friday.

Almost certainly Jan 2010, which was pretty much countrywide. I'd say that event was probably a slightly more severe set-up than what is CURRENTLY expected from the models, but things can and do change!

[summer blizzard]

I recall somebody asking why places like the east USA can get 'nor-easters' which produce in excess of a foot and RJS commenting that it was the warm tropical sea and cold dry air.

Well its gone unnoticed but we have an example of that over northern Italy from our low on Sunday with over a foot forecast..