Model Output Discussion 13/11/12 18Z onwards

[Adam lufc]

The models just Dnt seem to be playing for some reason. Interesting Synoptics and trends not leading us to anything cold. That's nov just about gone then before we Knw it December. We need to get out of this rut. The ecm and gfs had sooooo much potential the other night. Oh well...

[johnholmes]

Until the 500mb anomaly charts show some hint, let alone consistency between them over 2-3 days, of heights rising markedly to the north, be it NE or NW, then it might be a good idea for some of you to take a rest from watching every run come out frame by frame. The end result is going to be disappointment. At least for the next 10 days nothing is so far indicating any marked change from the pattern of weather over the past 5-10 days; from the Atlantic, sometimes milder sometimes less mild even coldish.

I assure you I will post the first day the 3 main models show anything that looks like a change!

This is the latest NAEFS output for T+240, the other three are pretty similar except one does show SOME signs of the heights generally rising across the north.

Edited November 14, 2012 by johnholmes

[stratty]

.....and the trend for something very much different is still there!!! (and getting closer timeframe wise )

Certainly exciting times ahead for model watchers - not that many of these posts seem to reflect that!

[Tom Montalbano]

Really think some members react far too quickly to each frame of a run, rather than letting the run develop. I dont think any model runs were

suggesting blocking developing, in a favourable position for the UK, before the last week of November.

Like quite a few members now, I watch the run roll out from a NH perspective and I find its more helpful watching the upstream pattern developing and the knock on effect for our part of the world.

Note how on this run a deep trough down the E.Seaboard of the U.S. helps to carve out a ridge in mid-Atlantic aiding those height rises Iceland then Scandinavia. I know this is still a long way off but there continues to be quite a strong signal for blocking to our N.W./N or N.E

.

Regards,

Tom.

[johnholmes]

a nice set of charts there Tom for cold lovers, perhaps a touch early but it does seem to be the way heights may build beyond 10-14 days from now

[Cheese Rice]

Why don't ones just look for trends, still high blocking in fi, still a disrupted vortex , and still lots of potential , lets get the right Synoptics first before we look for detail.

Exactly, the overall pattern in the n hemisphere is very positive for any long term cold prospects. I'm not saying we are going to see cold per say but the synoptics can deliver cold in the long run. I do detest the model thread sometimes as its full of a glass half empty winter is over approach.

[snowblues]

The run up towards winter seems to be rolling along very well.The N/H at least is moving in the right direction,no bottled raging merry-go-round vortex.A well broken N/H,even showing in the next 5 days ,the only concern is the low heights in the med.not sure if that will be a hinderance for any easterly out break to take place

[Eskimo]

The run up towards winter seems to be rolling along very well.The N/H at least is moving in the right direction,no bottled raging merry-go-round vortex.A well broken N/H,even showing in the next 5 days ,the only concern is the low heights in the med.not sure if that will be a hinderance for any easterly out break to take place

From someone who's still learning, shouldn't the low in the med be part of the driving force behind drawing the easterly closer to us?

[Tom Montalbano]

a nice set of charts there Tom for cold lovers, perhaps a touch early but it does seem to be the way heights may build beyond 10-14 days from now

Hi John. Here are the CPC blocking charts for days 5-9. Very similar to that NAEFS chart for 22nd Nov, with upper trough to our W gradually filling out at day 9 and heights rising from mid-Atlantic to Iceland and a hint of the core of those Euro heights edging north too.

Lets see how the 12z ECM handles that time scale, not long to wait.

Edited November 14, 2012 by TomSE20

[Alex]

The run up towards winter seems to be rolling along very well.The N/H at least is moving in the right direction,no bottled raging merry-go-round vortex.A well broken N/H,even showing in the next 5 days ,the only concern is the low heights in the med.not sure if that will be a hinderance for any easterly out break to take place

Why would low heights in the med be a hindrance? If anything it helps as ridges set up elsewhere, if they set up to our south - then that generally means Bartlett territory or the jet slap bang running west to east through the UK bringing mild wet weather.

[stratty]

From someone who's still learning, shouldn't the low in the med be part of the driving force behind drawing the easterly closer to us?

yes and also help support the high above it

[minus 9]

i think there is agood chance that pressure will build to the north within the next 10 days or so. where who knows. it has been showing in the latter time frames of the models for a while now. a quick question when you get the temps at two meters off the gfs are they temps from sea level or do they take into account the differing altitudes across europe?.

[bluearmy]

just to clarify, we need low heights to our south if we are to advect a cold easterly. infact, in pretty well all decent cold set ups,we requite low hights to our south.

[snowblues]

Why would low heights in the med be a hindrance? If anything it helps as ridges set up elsewhere, if they set up to our south - then that generally means Bartlett territory or the jet slap bang running west to east through the UK bringing mild wet weather.

Sorry for mis leading anybody i ment to have low pressure in the med to prop up any easterly,if and when one may occur.

[johnholmes]

Hi John. Here are the CPC blocking charts for days 5-9. Very similar to that NAEFS chart for 22nd Nov, with upper trough to our W gradually filling out at day 9 and heights rising from mid-Atlantic to Iceland and a hint of the core of those Euro heights edging north too.

Lets see how the 12z ECM handles that time scale, not long to wait.

yes that will be a good guide to how realistic they are

[Snowy Easterlies]

this could be a slow burner but thats fine its better if a cold blast came at the end of the month, sun will be very weak then and the cold can build over the confinement, so if the charts showed a high slap bang over us giving us frosty weather, which then retrogressed to our north that would be great even if we had to wait till early december for a cold blast whats wrong with that ?

FI is fine for me plenty of blocking and it will be chilly proper autumn early winter weather, the synoptics we have now i detest the most

Edited November 14, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Cloud 10]

Potential for something wintry for northern England and southern Scotland on monday as an active

frontal system spreads in from the south-west bumping into some cold air.

Cold start on monday morning for northern areas.

Heavy precipitation moving in.

The UKMO has the small low a touch further south on its 12z,lets see what the ECM

makes of it.

LOL,the ECM is having none of it!

Edited November 14, 2012 by Cloud 10

[AWD]

Regarding long term potential;

Note here the cold air deepening in the latter third of the month compared to mid month over Scandinavia & Eastern Europe, also spreading slightly further westwards.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

GFS Ensembles showing a steady downward trend from Mid month onwards, although nothing too cold showing as of yet.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=251&ext=1&y=51&run=12&runpara=0

The 50hpa ( & higher incidentally ) mean Temperature is currently running at record cold levels, this is ensuring a battle between the Stratosphere & Troposphere, which is one battle that needs to be stopped with a warm up in the Stratosphere to support wave breaking activity.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/50mb9065.gif

Here, above normal temps forecast for the latter half of November across the Azores & Eastern Seaboard, suggestive of heights over the Greenland area perhaps;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/NAEFS/poeabn_h264.00.global.gif

Edited November 14, 2012 by AWD

[bradymk]

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20121113.z500.gif

Latest Weekly charts are good for start of December still with high pressure over S Greenland, W of Iceland and in Scandinavia and lower heights to our south. I think it is going to require a few days of waiting as I still think that the period where a change may occur is still in deep FI of the models or even not in the range of the main models yet. The models are showing a cool down at the end of the month looking likely but as a few others have said, it might take a few goes before we get our first real cold of the winter. Hoping for some increase in wave activity and some warming in the stratosphere before I get too optimistic. It is all very exciting nevertheless.

[Zenarcher]

Interesting to see the ECM still disagreeing even within the 120 hours time range on the low pressure system crossing the Atlantic. It has it much more further North and is very similar to it's previous runs over the last 24 hours. GFS on the other hand has it more South and much weaker but also has been very consistent as well. The UKMO yesterday sided with the ECM but today has moved over with the GFS. Will be interesting to see which one is correct.

[Continental Climate]

At 144 the ECM aint great http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif mild southwesterlies getting pumped up from the azores!!

But wait what have we here http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif !! Oh yeah mild southerlies getting pumped up from morrocco

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?14-0

Painstaking at the moment. Its like pullling Hens teeth...

Remember because of model errors rates around being either to progressive or regressive then Day 10 on yesterdays run, COULD be day 11 on todays runs....

Give it another 48/72 hours & we will edge into UKMO territory...

until then- enjoy the warmth....

Edited November 14, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Adam lufc]

Ecm shows the dafidils an early opportunity. Very non descript Synoptics. Pretty drab boring weather really with no cold in sight.

[bluearmy]

Rarely seen such a messy ECM chart as the day 10. All the ingredients are there for an fi eye candy offering but it manages to produce something quite underwhelming!

[Snowy Easterlies]

At 144 the ECM aint great http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif mild southwesterlies getting pumped up from the azores!!

But wait what have we here http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif !! Oh yeah mild southerlies getting pumped up from morrocco

that is true and this can happen, but as no one wants to see that, people tend to dismiss this evolution, there are many different synoptics we could have from blocking like a scandi high, it doesn't always have to be a easterly or northerly, we can hope cast all we like but the weather will do what it wants

by 240 that big scandi high is still there, we could easily end up with a high slap bang over us as i said, then hope it retrogresses

because on this run heights stay low to our northwest