Model Output Discussion 13/11/12 18Z onwards

[Nick F]

A lot of people on here this evening, must be expecting another outrageous run from the 18z (pub) run again?

[Continental Climate]

what else can be said about this chart other than stuck in a rut http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1681.png

Transitory low pressure to our west pumping mild damp air over us and high pressure to the east stopping it from going anywhere. To top it all off there is definitely a developing pv just north of greenland exactly where we dont want it, although not to much of a surprise that as chio has been saying the strat is record breakingly cold at moment.

should read stationery low pressure

[Nick F]

You are probabley right nick,but doo we tend to look for small changes like this that may change things further down the line,small changes in the reliable could be of inportance,correct me if i am wrong.

But these little transitory differences occur all the time between runs, if the upper pattern started to show signs of a change - then I may raise my eyebrow

Edited November 14, 2012 by Nick F

[Allseasons-Si]

But these little transitory differences occur all the time between runs, if the upper pattern started to show signs of a change - then I may raise my eyebrow

learning all the time

thanks for that nick,just noticed the pv there gaining,i see your point,eyebrows firmly flat then lol.

Edit:azores in the latter,ughhhhh!

Edited November 14, 2012 by allseasons-si

[swfc]

hahaha 18z brings us a great summer esq azores high?????hmmmm

[Continental Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png hmmmm even FI has let us down

[January Snowstorm]

If you look at the temp profile for Europe next week (and indeed the uppers) it tells a lot.

Even upto next Thursday Europe remains frost free, well East in places like Poland which should be in the throes of Winter by then / now.

For me our only hope of cold at the moment is from a direct Northerly which looks unlikely until far into FI land.

Let's hope GP has called this one right, and to be fair I think i'd sooner have GP on board than the whole trinity of models put together

[Snowy Easterlies]

GFS 12z and GFS 18z are chalk and chesse in FI, you have to laugh

if only it were summer is the phrase that springs to mind yet again

[I remember Atlantic 252]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2641.png hmmmm even FI has let us down

Grim, but at least dry, I hate rain, nothing worse

[Cheshire Freeze]

This...

.....is pretty reminiscent of the METO long range anomaly charts for winter. Big high stretching across the mid latitudes and low heights over Greenland

The progression is nice though......at 384 hours heights increase to the north and the PV is shredded. If only!

Edited November 14, 2012 by CreweCold

[UV-RAY]

hahaha 18z brings us a great summer esq azores high?????hmmmm

Maybe a trend!

[Aiden2012]

I don't like the 18z ATM

[andy100]

Grim, but at least dry, I hate rain, nothing worse

Thought you loved the rain?

[Snowman31]

Not that bad in deep FI?

Edited November 14, 2012 by Snowman31

[nick sussex]

The limpet trough is beginning to outstay its welcome!

But as you can see from the vast differences between this GFS run and the earlier 12hrs one wonders why we even bother to look at the lower resolution output of the GFS.

At least the models agree on the trough after that its very uncertain as to what might happen.

I think its a case of being patient and seeing how the models deal with the upstream pattern and whether the trough does eventually sink se'wards or whether it just sits there and drives us all crazy!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

At 144 the ECM aint great http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif mild southwesterlies getting pumped up from the azores!!

But wait what have we here http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif !! Oh yeah mild southerlies getting pumped up from morrocco

Yes...and? It is anticipated by many on here...and isn't a problem...enjoy

BFTP

Edited November 14, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowy Easterlies]

but somehow in deep deep FI blocking manages to get to greenland lol

[bluearmy]

I don't like the 18z ATM

You wouldn't chuck the ' final frame out of bed' but I take your point. rather have naefs and cpc on board than the 18z op!

[chionomaniac]

You lot are looking at the wrong part of the vortex! Hint - Look up.

[Allseasons-Si]

well it is the pub run,reload tomorrow,night all

[Geordiesnow]

Even upto next Thursday Europe remains frost free, well East in places like Poland which should be in the throes of Winter by then / now.

Which is pretty normal for the time of year unless you have a blocking set up then the mild/cold airmasses switch places so to speak, anyways in November, Northerlies are our best direction for cold rather than Easterlies.

Interesting the GFS slightly intensifies that low for Sunday, some squally winds on the Southern flank of that low for sure!

[Continental Climate]

This...

.....is pretty reminiscent of the METO long range anomaly charts for winter. Big high stretching across the mid latitudes and low heights over Greenland

The progression is nice though......at 384 hours heights increase to the north and the PV is shredded. If only!

I believe we are a million miles from having a shredded vortex any time in the next six weeks

[Robbie Garrett]

Now that's a proper Greenland High...... Azores feeding those northern heights at 500hPA. Fantasy Island, but in the mid term.. North Atlantic becoming blocked.

For those saying that Fantasy Island wont happen, look again at the Jetstream.

As it changes to this pattern.

As this stage for a cold spell in 2 weeks time, if on a similar scale to 2010. This run actually beats the run this time 2 years ago.

2010 18z Run

2012 18z Run..

Maybe a model improvement over the last two years? But we are actually better off this time around. The above shows this. Raging Vortex on 2010 output, complete split this year.

Edited November 14, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Cloud 10]

You wouldn't chuck the ' final frame out of bed' but I take your point. rather have naefs and cpc on board than the 18z op!

The +424 chart would be interesting.

[Allseasons-Si]

You lot are looking at the wrong part of the vortex! Hint - Look up.

yes cross polar,but can we tap into it,thank chio