Model Output Discussion 13/11/12 18Z onwards

[Chess01]

Look at the NH view, that's all I'll say

All i can see is a second scandi high forming around south russia . Theres no blocking over greenland and the euro high just looks like its coming south west wards

[Liam J]

Well the chocolate fire guard 18z run seems to have been given some credit tonight?

Wow, not many people would give a 90% probability 8 days ahead for a Scandi block, hats off to you Steve if your right.... The blocking signal is still being entertained somewhere over mid-northern latitudes, but, I still think we have many more swings before we have some firm agreement on this one... Be nice to start winter with our first blast of cold air.

[Chess01]

But as pointed out its 360. Hours away so bound to change

[SMU]

Ah - ok... but are you so sure that the trend for blocking will be east to west rather than a ridge coming out of the US or perhaps even sourced from the Azores? There does indeed seem to be consistency now for this blocking episode to occur but at this time of year I think a 1% rating of a retrogressing Scandy high is a very brave call. The form horse for me would be a rise in pressure from the west. I am wrestling to get the concept of increasing angular momentum into my head properly, but if I understand it correctly the increased forcing of energy towards the poles ought to help force the pattern forward a bit, and hence I cant quite see how a scandy high will retrogress given GP's post yesterday which pointed to an increase in momentum that went off the top of the graph. A scandy high might well win the race to form first, but I cant see it retrogressing as you are suggesting.

That I definitely dont agree with.

HI sorry that post of mine wasnt clear-

I will try & make it some fun - as the bookie tomorrow-

its 1% for a Day 8 GH--

& 90% for the scandi block-

However I would rate the chance of a retrograde to GH from scandi at around 65-70% as it stands, but thats running before we can walk ... I would like to get to the stability point where the scandi block & location is nailed-

very similar to 2010- nail the scandi block & see whats 'forced' after-

No mention of the ECM tonight-

First run of the year with the -10C scaling-

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

All i can see is a second scandi high forming around south russia . Theres no blocking over greenland and the euro high just looks like its coming south west wards

The point I'm trying to make....based on this evening's output (it may well change) no rampant PV is advertised. A deep seated PV, high pressure over Europe and a long southwesterly fetch would pretty much be worst case scenario.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=1&mode=0

For those viewers who dont understand or know what a retrograde means- follow the 12z control run above from 12z ( HURRY)

all the way back to greenland from an initial scandi block.

S

[Barry12]

http://www.meteociel...&carte=1&mode=0

For those viewers who dont understand or know what a retrograde means- follow the 12z control run above from 12z ( HURRY)

all the way back to greenland from an initial scandi block.

S

I typed it in google but the suggestion was a different sort of retrograde

but I see what you mean, looks cool

Edited November 16, 2012 by Barry95

[chionomaniac]

http://www.meteociel...&carte=1&mode=0

For those viewers who dont understand or know what a retrograde means- follow the 12z control run above from 12z ( HURRY)

all the way back to greenland from an initial scandi block.

S

I would call that a failed retrograde, Steve. Hardly the best example. I think RP had a great example a few weeks back.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As an addition, I'd go with reasonable confidence of LP sinking to over Europe to our S/SE with Block to our east interacting with ridge in Atlantic with E to NE flow. However, deep in FI a la 18z I will go on to say the block will lose its grip/control over the UK......Scandi blocks don't hold their ground as well as a GHP I believe. Whether we see blocking moving/retrograding to Iceland linking to Greenland, if that occurs I think it will be sheered away from us. (I have a general mild Dec outlook with high pressure to southern quadrant having influence, that hasn't changed despite some potential positive indicators)....will try and put some bones on it in seasonal outlook next week.

BFTP

Edited November 16, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

Checking out berlin and warsaw does show getting colder scenario. Its not as if this as suddenly appeared. Steve may well be right about the scandi high at day 8 or 9 but he'll need the undercut to stop it beng a sceuro block.

[SMU]

I would call that a failed retrograde, Steve. Hardly the best example. I think RP had a great example a few weeks back.

its not the best - agreed but it was a good time to post it-

looking at the ensemble mean on the 18z at 150 im sure we will have some more choice shortly!!

S

[Richie V]

Well, the way I see the 18Z, = a total mess

I mean, come on guys.... SERIOUSLY the differences between 18Z and todays 12Z are quite astonishing. FI = 96 hrs tonight. In fact, As I said last winter (and some of you will remember) do NOT be surprised to see crazy dartboard lows featuring in the output from the start of next week.

For those of you that were quick to say i was of my rocker mabe this will refresh your memory!

Lucky it failed eh?

Edited November 16, 2012 by Richie V

[chionomaniac]

its not the best - agreed but it was a good time to post it-

looking at the ensemble mean on the 18z at 150 im sure we will have some more choice shortly!!

S

I bloomin' well hope so. I am fed up looking at potential FI possibilities these last few weeks.

[SMU]

Well ive scoured the ensembles -

Another 24 / 36 hours the GFS will work it out.....

PTB 9 seems the only correct one for me because its the ONLY undercutting ensemble....

S

[weather eater]

Yes the same old routine from the GFS in its lower resolution output.

They really should do the kind thing and put it out of its misery. Bin the lower resolution and work on improving the model overall and taking it out to a maximum 240hrs like the ECM.

It might be less entertaining but surely would be much more productive.

Couldn’t agree more, during the summer I didn’t look once at the GFS, it’s only in the last couple of weeks I’ve given it any attention and I’m beginning to wonder why I bother.

The 18z yet another evolution but it’s the blocking trend that counts for me. Picking FI details from GFS runs is like trying to navigate though a minefield with a white stick, I’ll leave that to the experts. One thing I would say that was mentioned earlier, is that we have now had quite a few runs with a displaced Azores high, Chiono mentioned it earlier and he’s right it’s shown its hand a few times now, I also wouldn’t bet against it.

[lorenzo]

Not essentially a model chart, but with some lateral thinking it could be.

[weather eater]

Well, the way I see the 18Z, = a total mess

I mean, come on guys.... SERIOUSLY the differences between 18Z and todays 12Z are quite astonishing. FI = 96 hrs tonight. In fact, As I said last winter (and some of you will remember) do NOT be surprised to see crazy dartboard lows featuring in the output from the start of next week.

For those of you that were quick to say i was of my rocker mabe this will refresh your memory!

Lucky it failed eh?

That’s the GFS for you it almost always over cooks LP systems.

[bobbydog]

there are many different types of posters on here, from those who wish to learn, to those who know. in between are those who 'know'.

the ones who will see the progression to cold as 'nailed on' and the ones who can only see 'mild for the foreseeable'

in my view, the models show us what might happen. it's not a court room with lawyers for the defence and prosecution. no-one can decide how the weather will turn out, no matter what the models say.

the models will give us an idea of the future weather but only nature will provide us with the verdict...

[phil nw.]

Looking at the ECM spreads and mean outputs for day 8 i would say some Atlantic heights look the more likely option

There looks like too much energy to hold a High that far north and a number of the gef`s show the uk trough moving east at that range with chance of a Scandi. trough a little further on.,

http://www.meteociel...&mode=6&ech=192

Maybe your instincts tell you different Steve but for the sake of objectivty we shouldn`t overlook the data from the various models.

[TEITS]

I was wondering if some members could help. I've had to reboot my laptop and lost virtually all of my bookmarks. Im missing the link to the ECM ensembles and I also remember a site that had the ECM precip charts.

Going to need all my bookmarks because its pretty clear something is brewing towards the end of the month.

[coldwinter]

I was wondering if some members could help. I've had to reboot my laptop and lost virtually all of my bookmarks. Im missing the link to the ECM ensembles and I also remember a site that had the ECM precip charts.

Going to need all my bookmarks because its pretty clear something is brewing towards the end of the month.

Are these the ECM ones you wanted?

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

Ryan.

[TEITS]

Are these the ECM ones you wanted?

http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

Ryan.

Yes those are the ensemble graphs I was after. Thanks ever so much.

Cheers Steve.

Edited November 16, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[SMU]

I was wondering if some members could help. I've had to reboot my laptop and lost virtually all of my bookmarks. Im missing the link to the ECM ensembles and I also remember a site that had the ECM precip charts.

Going to need all my bookmarks because its pretty clear something is brewing towards the end of the month.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

S

[cyclonic happiness]

I think all the signs are looking very positive for cold at the end of the month.

The models are doing the same sorts of wobbling that they always do when easterly / north easterlies are likely.

The only difference this Year seems to be the general lack of enthusiasm that used to be so much fun.

So, let's get excited about -8 850's and the snow that's showing up in FI.

The models are exciting! :-D

[Barry12]

I think all the signs are looking very positive for cold at the end of the month.

The models are doing the same sorts of wobbling that they always do when easterly / north easterlies are likely.

The only difference this Year seems to be the general lack of enthusiasm that used to be so much fun.

So, let's get excited about -8 850's and the snow that's showing up in FI.

The models are exciting! :-D

If the models start showing this in the reliable time frame, I'm sure there will be a lot of excitement. No point in getting excited when it's in FI and will change on the next run.