Model Output Discussion: 12Z (20/11/12) And On...

[WorsleySnow]

481 users on this thread?? is something afoot ??

about afoot of snow?!?

[Ice BIast]

De Bilt ensembles:

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

As expected the ECM a little milder outlier for Debilt in the mid term- so expect the pattern to be a smidge further south on the 00z-

Expect the downhill ski run of the ensembles to go from a green run to a black run at day 9 & beyond-

S

[mcweather]

481 users on this thread?? is something afoot ??

yes the depth of the snow lol

[weather eater]

This is a better tool than looking at the operational outputs in FI.

For those who have been following GP's posts thats more inline with the expected pattern than tonights ECM operational output.

Theres still a good chance of some colder uppers into the UK with some snow before retrogression so if things fall right you get the best of both worlds.

For longevity you do need to see that type of pattern, historically all the best cold spells have a fluidity to the blocking with Greenland high, some flattening of the ridge with an easterly on the southern flank then back to Greenland.

Absolutely, that’s what GP, john and Chiono have all been emphasising, its one of the reasons I’m very optimistic for this spell while at the same time not getting excited or downhearted by individual model runs. I seriously doubt any of them have the correct handle on the blocking post maybe 120hrs, and while I get as excited about the prospects of heavy snowfall as anybody else, I can’t see much point in conjecturing about it at this stage, I’ll leave that for those that enjoy that sort of thing.

.

Edited November 21, 2012 by weather eater

[NickR]

http://www.knmi.nl/e...M_06260_NWT.png

As expected the ECM a little milder outlier for Debilt in the mid term- so expect the pattern to be a smidge further south on the 00z-

Expect the downhill ski run of the ensembles to go from a green run to a black run at day 9 & beyond-

S

Though worth noting that the operational for those crucial, mouthwatering 216 and 240 is very much a cold outlier. Is there something about that progression that is unlikely?

[Downburst]

First post in this thread so please be gentle! The NCEP chart posted above by Daniel doesn't appear to show a sinker and this goes into early December. Think as has previously been suggested by John et al these are probably better tools to use at this range?

How dare you say such a thing. I'm in shock. You need to take the ECM (sneaky look at the JMA) then project the JMA evolution on how the EMC should look in your humble opinion, look for any option on the already multi option FI output and pronounce at great length. Never be childish and happy, never! . How dare you!

[snow drift]

Lucky pants have played a blinder tonight! Can't wear them for another week tho! Oh hang on, yet to turn them inside out yet!!!!!!!!

Anyway, nice chart from an output that the METO look at and consider.

[nick sussex]

Absolutely, that’s what GP, john and Chiono have all been emphasising, its one of the reasons I’m very optimistic for this spell while at the same time not getting excited or downhearted by individual model runs. I seriously doubt any of them have the correct handle on the blocking post maybe 120hrs, and while I get as excited about the prospects of heavy snowfall as anybody else, I can’t see much point in conjecturing about it at this stage, I’ll leave that for those that enjoy that sort of thing.

.

NOAA mention yet again the poor run to run continuity amongst the operational output which is why they've gone with the ECM ensemble mean in the 6 to 10 day outlook.

Interestingly they also mention a persistent negative NAO , additionally they're a bit wary of the ensemble solutions in the extended outlook as the big differences between members maybe giving a false ensemble mean view of the pattern flattening out upstream.

Edited November 21, 2012 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

All I can say is we had these awesome runs from the models in the build up to the epic 2010 freeze so why can't it happen again if this is indeed the general pattern trend we are heading towards, winds do look like being between Northerly and Easterly during next week and synoptically the pattern looks like locking in with the atlantic becoming blocked by high pressure, it's goodbye mild soon and no sign it will be back for weeks..in the shorter term, more torrential rain and flooding chaos in the next day or so and then more very disturbed weather during the weekend with more flooding likely.

[Snowstorm1]

Watch out UK! The winters gonna hit ya like a shotgun blast to the face!! Be ready for a long hard ride Brits!!!

Can a moderator please check if this is officially him because if it is what a nice addition to the netweather team

Edited November 21, 2012 by Snowstorm1

[bluearmy]

NOAA mention yet again the poor run to run continuity amongst the operational output which is why they've gone with the ECM ensemble mean in the 6 to 10 day outlook.

Interestingly they also mention a persistent negative NAO , additionally they're a bit wary of the ensemble solutions in the extended outlook as the big differences between members maybe giving a false ensemble mean view of the pattern flattening out upstream.

Which is why it maybe best to go with the anomolys post day 10

Wonder what the strat forecast has in store tmrw am after that ecm op ??

[The PIT]

WOW can't believe the upgrade in the last 24 hours, the ecm charts tonight look so similar to some we had in december 2010, imagine another 100 year event just 2 years after the last one, it would be totally EPIC, it's impossible not to ramp things up with charts like this, I would like us to tap into those purples over norway

Nice chart isn't it. Hopefully not a repeat of the failed beast from the east that disappeared overnight just before it got into the reliable time frame after teasing us for a week. 2010 style almost.

[Summer Sun]

Watch out UK! The winters gonna hit ya like a shotgun blast to the face!! Be ready for a long hard ride Brits!!!

Is this the real BigJoeB or not can the mods find out? nice addition to the forum if it is

Edited November 21, 2012 by Gavin.

[weather eater]

NOAA mention yet again the poor run to run continuity amongst the operational output which is why they've gone with the ECM ensemble mean in the 6 to 10 day outlook.

Interestingly they also mention a persistent negative NAO , additionally they're a bit wary of the ensemble solutions in the extended outlook as the big differences between members maybe giving a false ensemble mean view of the pattern flattening out upstream.

That’s interesting, I’m really not one hyperbole but you have to wonder what’s going on, this is either going to be short lived average affair or its going to blow 2010 out of the water.

[Frosty.]

Nice chart isn't it. Hopefully not a repeat of the failed beast from the east that disappeared overnight just before it got into the reliable time frame after teasing us for a week. 2010 style almost.

Yes it's awesome, I see no reason now why we won't get a significant cold spell developing through next week and onwards if the current trend continues to firm up.

[Fred Sykes]

The GFS and ECM look great tonight for cold lovers, but I was reading on another weather forum that we are in for a mild wet and windy January (according to a so called expert, Bill Farkin?)

[jimbo36]

Hope i'm proved wrong but i feel any real cold will stay to our north and east next week but a real snow fest in Central Finland from Tuesday next week, feeding westward. A brief taste of winter maybe next Wednesday but then the low moves back westward into the North Sea disrupting the flow and keeps any snow and extreme cold away from most of the UK.

Wednesday

Friday

I seem to have lost my map along the way, UK is in bottom left corner lol

Edited November 21, 2012 by jimbo36

[Paul]

No it's not the real Joe B, but thanks to the person impersonating him for having the decency to post on two accounts using the same ip address within a couple of minutes of eachother, can kill two birds with one stone now

[gottolovethisweather]

No it's not the real Joe B, but thanks to the person impersonating him for having the decency to post on two accounts using the same ip address within a couple of minutes of eachother, can kill two birds with one stone now

Thankyou Paul.

[Frosty.]

, but I was reading on another weather forum that we are in for a mild wet and windy January (according to a so called expert, Bill Farkin?)

I would take that with a large pinch of rock salt

EPIC models today they have got better and better since the 00z, and they were pretty good at 0z, the trend looks locked in for a much colder spell arriving during next week with snow becoming more widespread with time.

[cold snap]

Okay back on topic eyes down here comes the pub run

What to look for tonight

Good upper air

Direct easterly feed

And to watch that high we don't want it to sink

[peterf]

The GFS and ECM look great tonight for cold lovers, but I was reading on another weather forum that we are in for a mild wet and windy January (according to a so called expert, Bill Farkin?)

nuff said lol.

[coldwinter]

ECM extended ens: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Look chilly

Ryan.

[kold weather]

Ensembles aren't quite as cold with regards to that cold shot at 216-240hrs, but we get a longer lasting set-up, and the longer this goes on, the more Europe will cool and the easier it'll be to start getting the real cold we are looking for.

Remember, whilst low 850hpa temps are great, if you can establish a strong cold pool at the surface, it gives you much more of a fighting chance even at very marginal 850hpa temps.

Still got some fun in terms of severe weather to come yet.