Model Output Discussion 23/11/2012 18Z onwards

[Jonan92]

GFS definitely gone nuts

[Nick F]

Interesting how both GFS and ECM deepen the 500mb cold pool/lower heights over Scandinavia and eventually SW across the N Sea towards eastern UK by next w/e. Suggests some cold air propagating downwards through the troposphere. The deepening 500mb cold pool would certainly help generate increasing instability over the N Sea and increasing risk of convective wintry showers in that N/NE flow.

[Eskimo]

-

Agreed, the synoptics are so exciting, even I am left speechless sometimes.

[TEITS]

Even though the GFS is probably wrong I wouldn't be concerned about LP systems coming in from the Atlantic. The underlying trend is to keep HP to our N and any LP systems could bring a risk of snow. Now yes it might turn briefly less cold but the overall trend in the model output in F.I suggests the colder temps will return rather swiftly.

Just add there is a big difference between zonality returning bringing milder temps and the PV reforming over Greenland compared to what we are currently seeing in the model output.

Even during some of the classic winters the Atlantic managed to break through but this only increased snowfalls!

[kate1]

Learning all the time - thank you everyone, especially when my questions are stupid - and it's looking pretty promising!

[Liam J]

After all the guidance given out in this thread from respected members wrt to op runs and how bad the GFS is etc we now have folk getting excited over charts post T300.... Oh dear....

In the short term some minor upgrades from the 18z and with a few more tweaks it could be excellent. Awaits the 00z runs.....

[Jason H]

Does make me laugh on here sometimes. THis afternoon it was all about how everything supported the UKMO and how everything would fall in line with it (which I considered a precipitous conclusion to draw!). Now it's all about UKMO falling in line with ECM/GFS! Fickle is the word... and it doesn't just describe the models! ;-)

Only some people though. Why bother mentioning it? My take on the models are wet for the next 2-3 days, a drier interlude mid week. Turning colder at the end of the week, with frost and and wintry showers in the North and East.

[TEITS]

Learning all the time - thank you everyone, especially when my questions are stupid - and it's looking pretty promising!

Always ask and never feel as though your questions are stupid. We are all here to help and share our passion.

Back on topic and i've only just seen the ECM ensembles.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

You really cannot ask for anymore especially at this time of year as these would be impressive in mid winter.

[bluearmy]

the 18z fi evolution is not so far away from the extended anomolys and certainly more plausible than recent gfs low res. there is another greeny mean height rise on the 12z naefs and i note that whilst we are all looking at our side of the NH early dec, we may have missed another aleutian ridge setting up. Given that the vortex is already split, why not another arctic high to end week 2??

[snowstorm445]

After all the guidance given out in this thread from respected members wrt to op runs and how bad the GFS is etc we now have folk getting excited over charts post T300.... Oh dear....

In the short term some minor upgrades from the 18z and with a few more tweaks it could be excellent. Awaits the 00z runs.....

I think most people know its not going to happen. But they really are truly beautiful charts if your a member of the cold camp.

[Snowman.]

Woah!!!

Northerly down to Africa

How drunk is this computer!

[weather eater]

Forgetting the details of the FI output, the broad trend is to keep the heights, pretty much in-line with the long term guidance. Short term I’d like to see a little more clarity in that crucial period between 72hrs and 144hrs the GFS solutions all look a horrible mess.

[Bristawl Si]

What you on about BB? I've never said anything negative there but just giving an opinion out!

Apologies - out of order from me.

I think the latest model runs scream reloads thru' 1st half of December.

[phil nw.]

Learning all the time - thank you everyone, especially when my questions are stupid - and it's looking pretty promising!

Yes stick with it Kate.A lot of good posters in here now.

It does get a bit excitable in here at times like this but we don`t mind as long as the posters relate to the model runs.

[TEITS]

Latest Fax at +96 puts a smile on my face.

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax96s.gif

Looks like by next weekend max temps will struggle to reach above 3C even in the S with min temps dropping below freezing. Difficult at this stage to predict precitation because we still don't know if the flow will be N/NE/E,ly!!

My punt is a NE,ly and the UKMO at +144 has got this right.

Edited November 24, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[ronan]

What you on about BB? I've never said anything negative there but just giving an opinion out!

The GFS/ECM has been more consistent on sending the trough into Scandinavia, the UKMO has been consistent on keeping it further south thus the easterly winds occur but with two against one model, then you would imagine the trough into Scandi is the more likely option which I said many times is not a bad thing(aslong the uppers don't get mixed out too much which they don't on the 18Z).

I'm sorry but i have to agree with Bristol on this one! Its always negatives that you pick out from the models and very rarely if at all do you have any positives! Sorry for jumping on this one but every time a model comes out you can nearly guarantee that you will have a negative about it. I do respect your effort but in all honesty the charts are looking great at the minute. (sorry mods if off topic but i have been thinking this the past few days)

[Iceaxecrampon]

Hold the phone!

Is this another ridge I see forming? (I know its nearly 2 weeks but still)

Yes - tasty charts are up to the 8th of December - it was the 30th of Nov then the 2nd Dec how far will reality be? - seem to be chasing "zero hour" further and further on each run.

Ian

[Panayiotis]

Yes - tasty charts are up to the 8th of December - it was the 30th of Nov then the 2nd Dec how far will reality be? - seem to be chasing "zero hour" further and further on each run.

Ian

It still is the 30th of Nov... Edited November 24, 2012 by panayiotis

[chris55]

Always ask and never feel as though your questions are stupid. We are all here to help and share our passion.

Back on topic and i've only just seen the ECM ensembles.

http://www.knmi.nl/e...E_06260_NWT.png

You really cannot ask for anymore especially at this time of year as these would be impressive in mid winter.

Coldest De blit ensembles so far, looking good.

[nick sussex]

Latest Fax at +96 puts a smile on my face.

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax96s.gif

Looks like by next weekend max temps will struggle to reach above 3C even in the S with min temps dropping below freezing. Difficult at this stage to predict precitation because we still don't know if the flow will be N/NE/E,ly!!

My punt is a NE,ly and the UKMO at +144 has got this right.

The 120hrs is out:

Sticks to the raw output, all I can say to that is

[TEITS]

No surprise to see the Met O have gone with the UKMO on the latest +120 fax chart. No surprise really considering the ECM ensemble mean.

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

Obviously it doesn't mean its right and I have known times when these have been wrong and the GFS/ECM correct. However considering the synoptics being predicted then history tells us to back the UKMO.

Beat me to it Nick.

Edited November 24, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Panayiotis]

Yes - tasty charts are up to the 8th of December - it was the 30th of Nov then the 2nd Dec how far will reality be? - seem to be chasing "zero hour" further and further on each run.

Ian

It still is the 30th of Nov..

[weather eater]

Yes - tasty charts are up to the 8th of December - it was the 30th of Nov then the 2nd Dec how far will reality be? - seem to be chasing "zero hour" further and further on each run.

Ian

I think up where you are, you will be being feeling a distinct change in temperature around Wednesday into Thursday, and it’s still autumn.

[cooling climate]

Latest Fax at +96 puts a smile on my face.

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax96s.gif

Looks like by next weekend max temps will struggle to reach above 3C even in the S with min temps dropping below freezing. Difficult at this stage to predict precitation because we still don't know if the flow will be N/NE/E,ly!!

My punt is a NE,ly and the UKMO at +144 has got this right.

That is where I would put my money as well. The UKMO has been rock solid for the last two or

three days now and the t144 chart with a strong block developing to the north with a east, north

easterly airflow is the way to go. Would not be at all surprised to see the MO charts trending

even colder over the coming days with the other two falling into line.

The t96 and t120 follow the UKMO model exactly by the looks of things to me.

[thegreat316]

Liking p13!