Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Nights King]

Ian Fergussonâ€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Hopeful no real issues tomoro AM however: some dusting of snow settling on grass verges in places but 20-30% chance 1-3cm uplands

Damn I wish I had the morning off work so I could see this maybe

Just seen latest tv graphics and they indicate ppn moving through between 6 and 9 so i might catch a glimpse

Edited December 4, 2012 by mullender83

[fergieweather]

Yup, interesting set-up tomorrow AM. More on this, with very latest thinking from UKMO, in this eve's Points West

[Nights King]

Yup, interesting set-up tomorrow AM. More on this, with very latest thinking from UKMO, in this eve's Points West

Shall look forward to it.

Any idea of thursday night into friday early hours? we just looking at possible back edge snow now?

[lfcdude]

Yup, interesting set-up tomorrow AM. More on this, with very latest thinking from UKMO, in this eve's Points West

When you said you cant get the weather out of your head last week on the forecast... i believe you! The amount your on here

[bellanite]

Have to be in Gloucester at 7.30 tomorrow could be a little interesting but makes a change from flood dodging though! Soo hoping to see some of the white stuff seems like a long long time!!! currently 2.4 and falling rapidly with a dew point of -0.5 :-)

[A.J]

Yup, interesting set-up tomorrow AM. More on this, with very latest thinking from UKMO, in this eve's Points West

You tease.....anything to increase Auntie Beeb's TV ratings, and It'll work!

Seriously though, intriguing, I had a hunch even the publically accessible hi-res output was downplaying the snow signal, and that this mornings GFS run was a more accurate representation....hope I'm right for a change

[Iceberg]

Latest nae and to some extent the gfs is interesting in developing a small feature that runs down thru glost. Wilts and into Dorset.

Precip totals upto 7-8mm.

Nae shows it turning to snow after about 1-2hrs however higher elevation should help, dps drop a lot with thepassage of the system down to -1.

IMHO there is a by good chance of see some snow in these areas principle between 10-12.

A lower chance , but an outside realistic one of 2-3 hrs of moderate snow for a lucky few if the cold are undercuts quickly enough to provide the enhanced precip, if this happens 5-7cm could be possible.

Very much worth having netw radar for good luck tommorow if you live in ht right areas.

Sorry on phone so no pictures

[lfcdude]

Latest nae and to some extent the gfs is interesting in developing a small feature that runs down thru glost. Wilts and into Dorset.

Precip totals upto 7-8mm.

Nae shows it turning to snow after about 1-2hrs however higher elevation should help, dps drop a lot with thepassage of the system down to -1.

IMHO there is a by good chance of see some snow in these areas principle between 10-12.

A lower chance , but an outside realistic one of 2-3 hrs of moderate snow for a lucky few if the cold are undercuts quickly enough to provide the enhanced precip, if this happens 5-7cm could be possible.

Very much worth having netw radar for good luck tommorow if you live in ht right areas.

Sorry on phone so no pictures

Wiltshire! Might see a dusting then... Thursday looks like just rain

[jessandjon]

Still waiting for a good dump of snow here in Torpoint that isn't just 2 mm deep :-( maybe this year I will be surprised!!!

[AWD]

Not expecting much in Bristol but will try to head up to Gloucestershire if I can see what I can see there.

MOD thread seems a little happier this evening too.

[iowpompeylee]

Praying for a miracle on the Isle of Wight.but who knows usually when they don't forecast it we get a flurry or two.

[Nights King]

Not expecting much in Bristol but will try to head up to Gloucestershire if I can see what I can see there.

MOD thread seems a little happier this evening too.

lets see what our very own Ian F says on points west in 15 mins

[AWD]

lets see what our very own Ian F says on points west in 15 mins

Give a brief summary here if you wouldn't mind. I'm at work with no TV access.

[Iceberg]

It will be nice to see what he says the previous nae and ukv had only 1-2mm at most across the region, it's only the latest nae and poss ukv that enhances the feature.

The 18z will be crucial to see if its a new trend or a blip

[chris55]

Tantalising forecast from The big I.F on points West (winking smiley)

Tonight into the morning holds a bit of interest for us snow fans, but the comment about the rest of December was one to watch!!

[BristolBaggie]

Yup, interesting set-up tomorrow AM. More on this, with very latest thinking from UKMO, in this eve's Points West

Hi Ian you were such a tease at the end of your broadcast regarding December prospects. When are you going to spill the beans on your thoughts?

[Nights King]

Give a brief summary here if you wouldn't mind. I'm at work with no TV access.

Wintry mix of rain sleet and wet snow anywhere in our region more more likely glouc, somerset, bristol wiltshire areas with chance of settling snow on higher ground.

Very complicated mix though so a nowcast event me thinks from 5/6am ish.

No mention of thursday yet however.

[AWD]

Tantalising forecast from The big I.F on points West (winking smiley)

Tonight into the morning holds a bit of interest for us snow fans, but the comment about the rest of December was one to watch!!

Hopefully he isn't talking about tonight's T240 ECM chart then. Causing a lot of emotional posts in the MOD thread.

What did he say about tomorrow?

Wintry mix of rain sleet and wet snow anywhere in our region more more likely glouc, somerset, bristol wiltshire areas with chance of settling snow on higher ground.

Very complicated mix though so a nowcast event me thinks from 5/6am ish.

No mention of thursday yet however.

Thanks Mullender.

Good to see there is something interesting tomorrow then, even if some of us miss out.

Good luck on your hill.

[chris55]

Give a brief summary here if you wouldn't mind. I'm at work with no TV access.

Potential for a bit of sleet/snow into tomorrow, mainly with a bit of elevation. 30% chance of 1-3 cms on higher ground. A nice crisp and sunny day to follow with a cold night thereafter.

Also mentioned "interesting" rest of December.....more on tomorrows Points West.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Oi this thread is south AND south west

On South Today they showed sleet/snow possible for Berkshire/Wiltshire/N. Hampshire but rain everywhere else, not that I was expecting any here of course

Today was sunny & 8C after dropping to 5C last night & chilly already this evening at 5.2C

[AWD]

This is the best chart I could get from the 12z NAE.

A couple of cm's possible for Gloucs, Forest of Dean & North Wiltshire according to that.

This is the best chart I could get from the 12z NAE.

A couple of cm's possible for Gloucs, Forest of Dean & North Wiltshire according to that.

[-uksnow-]

Oi this thread is south AND south west

On South Today they showed sleet/snow possible for Berkshire/Wiltshire/N. Hampshire but rain everywhere else, not that I was expecting any here of course

Today was sunny & 8C after dropping to 5C last night & chilly already this evening at 5.2C

Amazing that you say this, because i am literally about 12 miles North of you and its -0.8 degrees...!

[Bristawl Si]

This is the best chart I could get from the 12z NAE.

A couple of cm's possible for Gloucs, Forest of Dean & North Wiltshire according to that.

This is the best chart I could get from the 12z NAE.

A couple of cm's possible for Gloucs, Forest of Dean & North Wiltshire according to that.

Only just catching up this eve, as the wee-man is here for the night.

Still a small chance of snow tom morn then or v slight?

Further down the line looks like things are firming up for an easterly later next week

[Iceberg]

This is the best chart I could get from the 12z NAE.

A couple of cm's possible for Gloucs, Forest of Dean & North Wiltshire according to that.

This is the best chart I could get from the 12z NAE.

A couple of cm's possible for Gloucs, Forest of Dean & North Wiltshire according to that.

The total precip for those charts tells a nice story though and hints at the potential.

It really is worth saying that the past few NAE runs have only had 1-2mm max for our area and this nae is very different.

DPs are favourable and at least they are progged as negative for most of the event.

[khodds]

Can someone pls remind me about dewpoints? Do they have to be 0c to allow for snowfall?