Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012

[SMU]

here we go guys 138 we have atlantic link up towards Greenland-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012120112/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

WATCH IT BUILD

[Iceberg]

Cold 12z gfs coming up, similar pattern with the gh but better pv break off position at t138.

[Panayiotis]

here we go guys 138 we have atlantic link up towards Greenland-

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-138.png?12

WATCH IT BUILD

Yes the two lows to the west of the high pressure should ridge it upwards into Greenland,which should force the low over Iceland to dive SE hopefully giving us a N/NE, the GFS has been hinting this for quite some days. Edited December 1, 2012 by panayiotis

[lorenzo]

GFS and UKMO both pretty clean with the Aleutian and Siberian ridges prior to the cold lobe of Vortex reforming.

[weather eater]

I wonder are we starting to see some of the continuity that the GFS showed leading up to the 2010 spell, 150hrs now and looking pretty similar to the last three runs.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012120112/UN144-21.GIF?01-17

AWSOME UKMO

Easterly building to the East, slider low, pressure building towards Greenland-

S

[Iceberg]

It should have a much strong colder northeasterly when the deep low has moved down far enough.

Has to be said that meto is less keen on such a strong pv low development in the initial stages and that development is needed to get the cold air here at that time frame

[lorenzo]

Northerly / Easterly... the models are unloading the cold now.. you would think someone somewhere knew it was December 01st !

[nick sussex]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?01-17

AWSOME UKMO

Easterly building to the East, slider low, pressure building towards Greenland-

S

Yes and it has a much weaker system to the north, looks like the cold air could hang around as fronts approach.

With some westwards correction it could get even more interesting, what do you think?

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

GFS 12z seems to have a nice little low running up the western side of Greenlland around 168h. Way into FI but nice to see modelled non the less....

[chris55]

This would feel a bit chilly, big windchill there,

[Panayiotis]

GFS 12z seems to have a nice little low running up the western side of Greenlland around 168h. Way into FI but nice to see modelled non the less....

Although FI as you say,the GFS has hinted this low for some days now..

[Jayces]

So here we go again, something exciting building up for next week but will little features appearing nearer the time spoil the party?

[chionomaniac]

Watch out in the low res output

[EML Network]

Am I looking at the same charts as everyone else ??

All I can see is more North Westerly's

EDIT - with the usual wish bone effect, useless unless your in Scotland or along the East coast , although granted it's another cold run

Edited December 1, 2012 by EML Network

[lorenzo]

GEM ticking along nicely too. Wonder if it will be as quick as the GFS with respect to the UKMO @ 144...

[chris55]

Anyone order a Scandi high?

[Panayiotis]

Hey hey, wait a 1052mb high over Scandi!?

[Harsh Climate]

Not bad

[IDO]

I wonder where my Easterly went. Welcome back:

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

May snow if this came true!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121201/12/384/uksnowrisk.png

Four great FI runs. Things are beginning to look promising.

Edited December 1, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012120112/gfsnh-0-384.png?12

Widespread snow with drifting, blizzards, sub zero temps, Frozen lakes, sledging & NW melt down.

Awsome

See you all later!

S

[chris55]

If Calsberg did model runs for the lead up to xmas.....

[Panayiotis]

Cannot believe my eyes out at 384hrs and winds coming from the same direction as the 06z 384hrs! I remember reading here a couple of days ago that the models should start pickng up on the background signals, and appears they have done so!..

Edited December 1, 2012 by panayiotis

[cyclonic happiness]

Meh!

I'll believe that when I see it, but I suppose there's only so many times the models can screw you over before one actually accidently verifies in FI.

In the mean time, the status-quo for the past couple of runs is looking good, with still a good chance of snow for alot of us from tuesday onwards

[scottishandy]

Where's that bit of PV going? Purely speculatively of course.