Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Atlantic looks dead by 120h on 18z.GFS.

[SMU]

looking at the 18z out to 120- the heights feel right over the NH- the transition looks smooth, vertical advection up the western side of greenland-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012120218/gfsnh-0-132.png?18

will this be the cobra run-

s

[cold snap]

Great stuff by the GFS 18hrs run so far with no support for the UKMO.

Also more oval shape to the low than the football of the 12hrs run, looks very good for the ne and wonderful for the Scottish ski industry.

Without wanting to jinx things this looks like a peach of a run coming

Now gfs behave yourself And send that low south east and fast

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Great stuff by the GFS 18hrs run so far with no support for the UKMO.

Also more oval shape to the low than the football of the 12hrs run, looks very good for the ne and wonderful for the Scottish ski industry.

Yes no support fro that 12zukmo thankfully Nick.

Looks a good run now this..

[Weathizard]

Similar out to 102 to the 12z but I like the heights going in to Greenland more + look at that beautiful 1048HP

Scandi heights and Greenland heights trying to build in at the same time, when you look at these charts you realise we are suddenly in a different phase of winters, not the old 00's muck. (2009 exc)

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Edited December 2, 2012 by Weathizard

[Iceaxecrampon]

18Z

NW bombardment?

Thursday

Then Saturday

Ian

[Weathizard]

Can anyone of the more experienced forecasters remember the last time we had a vortex in as much of a 'state' as this one? I'm only a youngun but I don't think I've seen anything like this before in my time model watching?

[cold snap]

Don't worry reason why no posts think there could be a web traffic issue , post icon wasn't working

Edited December 2, 2012 by cold snap

[nick sussex]

Great start to the GFS 18hrs run but the pattern could do with a being a little further se, that shortwave from hell stops the ridge to the ne from getting over the top.

Not a surprise really given past history, not bad but could be better, only gets a 7/10 from me in the higher resolution.

[london-snow]

Great 18z thus far although we need to see that short wave kicked south and east as soon as possible and at 150+ its seems to take a liking to the uk and wants to stay and have some dinner. Sorry but the kitchen needs to be closed on this one my friend try the french foreign legion they will sort you out..

Edited December 2, 2012 by london-snow

[Weathizard]

Striking difference from the GFS compared to the ECM at 168? GFS goes for practically no vortex, ECM goes for just over western Greenland? + Looks like the pesky Scandinavian shortwave is developing and refuses to sink, JUST leave will you!....

Higher resolution started off pretty decent but I don't like the changes at all at 192. Still with this amount of annoying shortwave activity this is going to be more drama I'd imagine, as if we need it.

Edited December 2, 2012 by Weathizard

[SnowObsessor90]

Would this be a toppler or am I looking at it wrong?

[cold snap]

Tell you what gfs wants to mess around with this low just clear it south east and flood gates will open

[PolarWarsaw]

Ahh-so of the many things that could go wrong, it's our old friend the SW that looks to have the potential to scupper the cold fun!

[weather_it_will]

No real winter on offer for the SE until at least Next Monday with a possible snow event.

Just can't get excited about this 18z run.

[nick sussex]

Tell you what gfs wants to mess around with this low just clear it south east and flood gates will open

Frustrating but once the shortwave hangs around near Svalbard until we're old and grey the high sinks and with no link up with the ridge to the ne it deflates faster than one of my dodgy souffles!

But anyway I wouldn't worry about the lower resolution. Look on the positive side we at least jumped the first hurdle with no major injuries.

[fergieweather]

Thursday's front has snow on its leading edge and backward edge.

Our thoughts exactly

[london-snow]

Ahh-so of the many things that could go wrong, it's our old friend the SW that looks to have the potential to scupper the cold fun!

No real winter on offer for the SE until at least Next Monday with a possible snow event.

http://modeles.meteo...fs-2-180.png?18

Just can't get excited about this 18z run.

For the love of god low never goes south east now the high pressure comes back into play

Tedious

Oh for heavens sake get a grip its the pub run. We have seen copious amounts of runs take that sw south east over the past few days & put us into the freezer eventually. It is also in low res and therefore likely to differ from run to run but the trend has and is there to get us into the freezer.

Overall a very good weekend of model watching and a very good weekend if you are after cold weather in the short, medium, and long term range with the real cold having a real opportunity of visiting the uk into week 2.

[Bristawl Si]

Our thoughts exactly

So leave the fantasy of model predictions 1 week+ out and home in on Thursday's potential - take the hint.

[Harsh Climate]

Again things go wrong over 'svalbard', in future runs we must see pressure rise there and no pesky shortwaves!

Edited December 2, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[SnowObsessor90]

Thanks to the 18z I'll be going to bed in a more anxious mood now. Hopefully the 00zs end up looking anywhere near as deflating.

Edited December 2, 2012 by Anonymous21

[nick sussex]

As I said earlier there are two hurdles to overcome, the ECM/GFS at least get over the first one.

From experience of past set ups its the low digging far enough se into the continent with ridge backing west over the top thats always the hardest to jump.

There are many ways to an easterly but in this instance we're not dealing with a shortwave undercutting a ridge which is sitting with its core over Scandi.

Here we have this huge high extending from the ne and this isn't so straightforward.However I really would urge newer members though to not let the lower resolution GFS output spoil their evening.

Theres a reason its called lower resolution, look at the plus points which are earlier in the run.

Not to drone out an overused term but you cant build a house with dodgy foundations, there is a decent foundation and thats the way I'd look at it this evening.

The rest of the structure will hopefully go up tomorrow.

[Snowy Easterlies]

so with all this talk of good of good signals, the PV etc everytihing can all be ruined by a measly shortwave

[ukpaul]

The GFS 0.5 is always useful to see what is really programmed snow-wise for the area it shows (not the far north of England and Scotland) and there really isn't much there on the last couple of runs for anyone outside of high ground in the pennines and Wales.

A stonking amount of rain again for the North West and North Wales which would likely cause problems.

[Weathizard]

As I said earlier there are two hurdles to overcome, the ECM/GFS at least get over the first one.

From experience of past set ups its the low digging far enough se into the continent with ridge backing west over the top thats always the hardest to jump.

There are many ways to an easterly but in this instance we're not dealing with a shortwave undercutting a ridge which is sitting with its core over Scandi.

Here we have this huge high extending from the ne and this isn't so straightforward.However I really would urge newer members though to not let the lower resolution GFS output spoil their evening.

Theres a reason its called lower resolution, look at the plus points which are earlier in the run.

Not to drone out an overused term but you cant build a house with dodgy foundations, there is a decent foundation and thats the way I'd look at it this evening.

The rest of the structure will hopefully go up tomorrow.

Surely though Nick, the structure won't go up tomorrow, from experience scenarios like this tend to not be resolved until t72-96, I just cannot see this being resolved any time soon, not negative because lets be honest there is nothing to be negative about but given the amount of sw dramas we seem to have every winter! Knowing our luck it'll probably all go pete tong tomorrow!

so with all this talk of good of good signals, the PV etc everytihing can all be ruined by a measly shortwave

Such is the place we live, we are never to far from any of the things that can get in our way, don't be too down on it anyway, as nick said, at least we got past the first hurdle and there will be more significant changes to whats being projected