Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

[Jason H]

On one run on the low resolution part of the model. Scuppered? I think not.

[Met4Cast]

No real winter on offer for the SE until at least Next Monday with a possible snow event.

http://modeles.meteo...fs-2-180.png?18

Just can't get excited about this 18z run.

Guessing you missed Wednesdays chart then?

18z not too bad, its certainly has potential we just need the whole pattern further South-East and it'll be game on. I hope we continue to see the ECM give us charts like this evenings!

[weather eater]

No great FI on this run, but yet again we have great continuity between runs even as far out as 192 hrs, I make that nine in a row from the GFS.

Here’s how the 18z stands against the 12z at 120hrs, 168hrs and 192hrs, the 12z are on the left and 18z on the right. Reading the comments on the thread as the run came out, you could have been fooled into thinking that the 18z was emerging as a substantial upgrade on the 12z, but you can see that in fact this was not really the case, now obviously little changes can make a big difference on our tiny island, but even so I would contend that no major upgrade took place up to 192hrs.

Or any relevant downgrade I must add especially after just reading several nonsense posts, continuity out to 192hrs is very rare so it’s absolutely pointless worrying about what comes after.

Edited December 2, 2012 by weather eater

[ukpaul]

Guessing you missed Wednesdays chart then?

18z not too bad, its certainly has potential we just need the whole pattern further South-East and it'll be game on. I hope we continue to see the ECM give us charts like this evenings!

Like I said, people need to look closer, the europe view just doesn't cut it. There's even a higher definition one on the 0.5 and this is what it shows.

Here's the URL for the whole run to save people future wailing and gnashing of teeth.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/precipitations-hd/3h.htm

Edited December 2, 2012 by ukpaul

[Nick F]

As I said earlier there are two hurdles to overcome, the ECM/GFS at least get over the first one.

From experience of past set ups its the low digging far enough se into the continent with ridge backing west over the top thats always the hardest to jump.

This is the problem that we had recently when some of us thought an easterly was possible, the low exiting east/SE did not sink far south enough to allow the floodgates to open up from the east. 18z GFS plays the same game, though at least we're in chance for a cold and wintry northerly beforehand.

Like I said today, all these lows heading down from Greenland will be modelled differently with each run. Only this evening have the models come to an agreement over the track of Thursday's low crossing the UK. Following Thursday's low, another low comes down from the NW for the weekend, which will then be the possible trigger for a northerly.

Let's hope there are no more shortwaves dropping down from the NW after that to scupper pressure rises to the north. As we will be growing old and grey waiting for the easterly to arrive! Trouble is, anymore of those shortwaves over Sern greenland won't be picked up this far off.

[fergieweather]

Now seen all the snow progs from EC, MOGREPS-15 & UK4 (extended) for Thursday. Looks bothersome for parts of northern UK; nothing too worrying in south (patchy trace signal in all models with exception of parts of Wales and insignificant amounts within a broad rain event elsewhere, e.g. to around 1cm over some uplands such as to Cotswolds, Exmoor etc). Weekend v v tricky.

[john mac]

Cheers Ian, lOts of different solutions being put on the table by the models at the moment.

[Mr Frost]

I know this is not model related but i would like to say thank you for your fantastic updates regarding the current snowfall here in Scotland. About 2cm currently on the ground and still going strong. I am 15 miles south east of Glasgow so earlier comments of accumulations look spot on!

Now seen all the snow progs from EC, MOGREPS-15 & UK4 (extended) for Thursday. Looks bothersome for parts of northern UK; nothing too worrying in south (patchy trace signal in all models with exception of parts of Wales and insignificant amounts within a broad rain event elsewhere, e.g. to around 1cm over some uplands such as to Cotswolds, Exmoor etc). Weekend v v tricky.

[Dampdorset82]

Now seen all the snow progs from EC, MOGREPS-15 & UK4 (extended) for Thursday. Looks bothersome for parts of northern UK; nothing too worrying in south (patchy trace signal in all models with exception of parts of Wales and insignificant amounts within a broad rain event elsewhere, e.g. to around 1cm over some uplands such as to Cotswolds, Exmoor etc). Weekend v v tricky.

Tricky in the sense that the models are unreliable or due to an event of some kind?

[ITSY]

Now seen all the snow progs from EC, MOGREPS-15 & UK4 (extended) for Thursday. Looks bothersome for parts of northern UK; nothing too worrying in south (patchy trace signal in all models with exception of parts of Wales and insignificant amounts within a broad rain event elsewhere, e.g. to around 1cm over some uplands such as to Cotswolds, Exmoor etc). Weekend v v tricky.

Hi Ian, wondering what you could tell me about potential Snow in Leeds for Thursday? I have parents coming up to visit me and don't want them to get stuck in anything too bothersome!

[swfc]

Hmm the low at 144 hrs looks a lot weaker and a bit stretched.not sure where this going again but very interesting!!!Plus the huge block to the north east is further west and building

Edited December 3, 2012 by swfc

[Snowy Liverpool]

Hmm the low at 144 hrs looks a lot weaker and a bit stretched.not sure where this going again but very interesting!!!Plus the huge block to the north east is further west and building

Looking very similar to the ECM.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes much better run, a nice Easterly showing bringing colder -8 uppers to the East coast and Midlands.

[swfc]

Looking very similar to the ECM.

Indeed.Still looks like flattening out tho and know real push nne to connect up to that huge hp.Guess its wait and wait some more.One thing for sure is it looks at the moment a long way back for the atlantic getting threw!!!

[weather_it_will]

Heights building over Greenland pushes the low down from the UK to Southern Europe, and then we get a nice easterly flow.

[swfc]

Amazing that the pv still manages to hold its self together!!!So much confusion in the atmosphere is obv making model output very difficult.Only conclusion to me is the atlantic is locked off but beyond 96hrs is pure guess work .Iwould be quite ironic now if ecm moves away from its clean run introducing an easterly just on the basis that gfs kind of joins in!!!!

Edited December 3, 2012 by swfc

[The PIT]

Deep FI easterlies showing in both ECM and GFS. Fairly good agreement for once. However 00oz ECM is only just coming out so it could well remove the idea. In the reliable time frame becoming rather cold with snow for Scottish hills and highest ground of northern England.

[swfc]

Ecm goes a diff route again ?168 sees the change.216 and ecm says boom!!!!!

Edited December 3, 2012 by swfc

[SLEETY]

ECM looking a stunner to my eyes...WOW!

[weather is fun]

Looks like were doing just the same as last week chasing the cold deep in fi. Think this is going to be another let down winter again. The models arent great for a deep cold outbreak. Think we will be seeing more upgrades from the models regarding even less chance of cold outbreak for us.

[Duane S.]

UKMO and GFS broadly similar up to day 5 (haven't viewed ECM yet)

MO 00z (5 day)>>>

GFS 00z (5 day)>>>

but then UKMO takes the system laterally from W to E Iceland??

MO 00z (6 day)>>>

GFS 00z (6 day)>>>

Not ideal at first glance but I wonder if that may lead to an even strong easterly 4 days on from that? Looking the UKMO that NE block has grown and is primed and ready to ridge west still. Signs of trough disruption and this could help draw WAA from day 7 onwards up through Greenland et voila we have a 65 degree N link up and good low heights below to pull in the the continental air. What could possibly go wrong! :-)

[shotski]

Ecm goes a diff route again ?168 sees the change

Massive difference at t-168, Sinks a deep low into the atlantic and heights not as strong to our northwest.

4 or 5 days out look to be FI at the moment but the trend is the same

[swfc]

Massive difference at t-168, Sinks a deep low into the atlantic and heights not as strong to our northwest.

4 or 5 days out look to be FI at the moment but the trend is the same

look at the 216 chart

[shotski]

look at the 216 chart

was just about to say, that low in the atlantic probs up the high and it starts to build. Interesting

[Duane S.]

More experienced members will know what I am talking about here and there is little science behind it. But often when we start seeing cold outcomes reached on the models via different routes, this is a very good sign.