Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

[Isolated Frost]

Houston...

[Continental Climate]

Could there be a link up about to happen that will bring us an easterly http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120212/ECH1-168.GIF?02-0!! Now that would be lovely!!

People did say NE height rises were more likely and on the strength of this run i would say they are correct, looks to be plenty of cold to tap into if that is the case

[Stuie]

Oh the ECM has changed it tune from the earlier run. The cold sets back in.

[MR EXTREMES]

GFS

UKMO

GEM

perspective from me is heights still build on the ukmo perhapes deeper cold will be delayed by a day or two id be inclinded to say winter is apon us.

all charts looking wintry absolutely nothing mild and after all my downbeat comments i can finally say im glad im a coldie fantastic charts and christmas is close white christmas would be a dream come true very much possible now compaired to last week.

[Continental Climate]

looking chilly over Hudsons http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120212/ECH0-168.GIF?02-0!! Good bye ice free water up there until next may!! Vortex setting up over canada

[TEITS]

Just want to echo what I said this morning.

Do not look for a Greenland HP because that isn't going to happen. The core of the HP has always been most likely around the Iceland/SE Greenland area as the ECM suggests. What we are looking for after is the LP pushing SE, linkl up between this HP over Iceland and the one over Siberia resulting in an E,ly.

[Iceberg]

Stunning ECM @168, the higher res graphics shows the front as it moves down embedded in -5 850's with sub 528 thickness, add in a dose of evpo cooling and thats a very snowy chart.

[Matty M]

Decent ECM running trundling out.

Hopefully we can get a strong block out of this to our northeast before the PV invades Greenland again.

We want some lows to spawn near Spain too to prop things up.

[AWD]

A bit of snowfall possible here;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

[ukpaul]

Can we say that GFS has lead the way with that Greeny? ECM showing something similar to GFS's idea

The only model that has a proper Greenland High of those that run to that point is BOM, GFS has an attempt which gives up halfway through, ECM even less so (and at 192h that helps us to colder uppers).

[weatherguy]

Just want to echo what I said this morning.

Do not look for a Greenland HP because that isn't going to happen. The core of the HP has always been most likely around the Iceland/SE Greenland area as the ECM suggests. What we are looking for after is the LP pushing SE, linkl up between this HP over Iceland and the one over Siberia resulting in an E,ly.

Am I right in thinking that the PV's position over Canada is what would prevent a sustainable greeny high setting up?

[Continental Climate]

Just want to echo what I said this morning.

Do not look for a Greenland HP because that isn't going to happen. The core of the HP has always been most likely around the Iceland/SE Greenland area as the ECM suggests. What we are looking for after is the LP pushing SE, linkl up between this HP over Iceland and the one over Siberia resulting in an E,ly.

Something not too dissimilar to this then TEITS http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120212/ECH1-192.GIF?02-0!! That'll do!!

[ICETAB]

Just want to echo what I said this morning.

Do not look for a Greenland HP because that isn't going to happen. The core of the HP has always been most likely around the Iceland/SE Greenland area as the ECM suggests. What we are looking for after is the LP pushing SE, linkl up between this HP over Iceland and the one over Siberia resulting in an E,ly.

From an IMBY point of view I hope that is not the outcome, or at least not to start with. The NW is much more likely to get snow from a greenland high.

I like the look of the wind direction on the GFS. Perfect for showers flowing through the cheshire gap

[The Eagle]

Good chart

[TEITS]

Am I right in thinking that the PV's position over Canada is what would prevent a sustainable greeny high setting up?

Intially no we won't see a GH. However if the E,ly does occur then in my opinion from mid month onwards we could see the block over Scandi transferring W towards Greenland as the PV backs further W.

I don't wish to ramp but we could be on the cusp of something very special developing here!!

[Continental Climate]

Perfect!! http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?02-0!! Now all we need to do is get these charts to T72 and bingo!!

Edited December 2, 2012 by Continental Climate

[Isolated Frost]

216- perfect link-up in the GIN corridor- european trough in place with some low dam values, advocating a strong flow moving cold 850s in at a rapid pace.. near perfection

[Snowy Liverpool]

A much weaker, almost nonexistent shortwave to the west of Norway on the ECM. I have a feeling that will be the key for a link up with the siberian high.

[swfc]

Great eye candy from ecm at 216 hours!!!!!!!.Another variation from only this morning but still looking cool to cold.Fi still 92 hours for me

[Matty M]

Perfect!! http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?02-0!! Now all we need to do is get these charts to T72 and bingo!!

I would also like the 850hPa temps to be 2 or 3c colder please!

Great synoptic from the ECM.

[weatherguy]

Intially no we won't see a GH. However if the E,ly does occur then in my opinion from mid month onwards we could see the block over Scandi transferring W towards Greenland as the PV backs further W.

I don't wish to ramp but we could be on the cusp of something very special developing here!!

Good to see I'm picking stuff up over the couple of years I've been on this site! Thanks

[Jonan92]

Greenland High starting to set at 240h?

[TEITS]

From an IMBY point of view I hope that is not the outcome, or at least not to start with. The NW is much more likely to get snow from a greenland high.

I like the look of the wind direction on the GFS. Perfect for showers flowing through the cheshire gap

I would prefer a GH because its less drama than an E,ly via blocking to our NE/E. However I can only interpret the model output as I see it and in my opinion the E,ly is far more likely than a GH. If all goes to plan the GH follows later on!

Textbook E,ly how this develops from the ECM.

[Methuselah]

I'm afraid that's complete tosh Kold.

I presume you wouldn't see a cold spell coming from this chart either then

http://www.wetterzen...00119470118.gif

Yesterday, I used a chart from December 1962, to make the very same point!

[mountain shadow]

From an IMBY point of view I hope that is not the outcome, or at least not to start with. The NW is much more likely to get snow from a greenland high.

I like the look of the wind direction on the GFS. Perfect for showers flowing through the cheshire gap

The ridge to Greenland would merge with the Scandi high giving an easterly.

In time the PV is expected to shift over to Siberia away from Canada allowing the Scandi high to retrogress to Greenland for a northerly. Shades of 2010.