Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

[Michael Winston]

War And Peace?

Life and Fate?

Regards

Mike

[snowking]

Yes - a poor 06Z in the long term - short term looking promising for the band of ppn heading South snow down to low levels away from coasts.

Thought it was quiet and you know it's bad output as the Output Discussion is not at the top of the leaderboard....

Everyone on here? http://forum.netweat...moaning-thread/

Cumbria ensembles GEFS mean still holding steady for cold through to the 19th well chilly on the 6th.

Ignore the later control run hopefully.

06Z FI for the bin?

Ian

Those are still the 0z ensembles my friend

6z should be out in the next 30 mins or so

SK

[snowking]

Mean at +192:

Still actually not much of a shift from the 6z

Looking through the individual runs, the Ely flow is still the favoured solution...at least for now

SK

[stainesbloke]

The roller coaster ride continues, I think I'm a bit worn out lol Can't make much sense from the charts at the moment, I respect those who can see the trends and are sticking to their guns. It looks like Europe will be getting chilly very soon which is a big boost to our cold potential. Have a feeling it's going to take a while to get here though. Looking at signs in Nature (waxwings, berries, squirrels gorging themselves) am quite hopeful of a decent Winter arriving soon!

[Weathizard]

4 days into winter and we have people saying 'oh well boring winter', you have to laugh really, everyone is frustrated, but we have to handle our emotions rather than dismissing winter FOUR days in to winter, I still think despite what the models are saying it will shift west, we only need a few hundred miles and we'll be back well in the game. And I think we'll begin to see the models trend back west this evening.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Those are still the 0z ensembles my friend

6z should be out in the next 30 mins or so

SK

Ooops - apologies - ahead of myself Specsavers and all that.....

Ian

[Iceaxecrampon]

The roller coaster ride continues, I think I'm a bit worn out lol Can't make much sense from the charts at the moment, I respect those who can see the trends and are sticking to their guns. It looks like Europe will be getting chilly very soon which is a big boost to our cold potential. Have a feeling it's going to take a while to get here though. Looking at signs in Nature (waxwings, berries, squirrels gorging themselves) am quite hopeful of a decent Winter arriving soon!

Agreed and it's good to witness - but a better forecast is when the missus has the CH Therm turned up to 25C...

Ian

[Barry12]

Like is said all the time, it's one run, the trend for a blocked cold outlook is still there and we believe in GP, we believe in Chiono, we believe in Steve murr!

Edited December 4, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil

[IanM]

And this is exactly why we have a 'Winter Moaning Thread' So that the model thread can avoid being overwhelmed by comments on a single downbeat post.

Please use the other threads provided, it makes it so much easier to keep this one on track.

Thanks for your help

[Paul]

Moaning thread available here, please use it if you want to moan rather than clogging up the model discussion

[bobbydog]

lets just say, hypothetically, the 06z does happen.

i'm sure many will be disappointed. we might not see the hoped for white christmas.

however.... we could be greatly compensated.

right above this-

is this-

canadian warming anyone?.....

Edited December 4, 2012 by bobbydog

[Met4Cast]

Ignore the GFS 06z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png

If you can find me a chart as messy as this that as ever verified then I'll take the above statement back, but honestly, at T54 we should not be seeing that many shortwaves littered all over the place, it's insane!

[tonbridgemole]

Love this chart......sometimes you got the ice cream and some days you didn't!!

[Glacier Point]

Mean at +192:

Still actually not much of a shift from the 6z

Looking through the individual runs, the Ely flow is still the favoured solution...at least for now

SK

Agree.

06z GEFS, following on from 00z are a dog's breakfast synoptically, showing wide scatter after day 8. We still get a half decent mean anomaly out of it which secures low heights between the Azores and Iberia (notable conflict with 18z and 6z GFS op) and strong +ve heights in the North Atlantic towards Svalbard (both areas are where our easterlies go wrong usually so an encouraging sign there).

Fair to say that the GFS doesn't have a clue beyond day 7, maybe earlier given synoptic developments. In such cases, stick with your means.

PV still being modelled to shift its position and decamp from Canada. The cut off lobe over Siberia seems to be causing a lot of instability on global NWP right now. Note also, a consistent trend for retrogression towards Greenland of our mean anomalous ridge - hard to believe if you're looking at operational GFS - but there and consistently there.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Glacier Point

[DTHFCJ]

Because guys we will be saying the same stuff come January ' oh it's only January 8 weeks left yet!' It needs to be happening now. Not always in a few weeks etc...

Dont often post in here but read the thread(s) every day,from what i gather there could be something special on the horizon..there are some members on here with excellent input others who are trying and others who are learning..reading posts from experienced members should fill you Adam with plenty of hope,it does me..

[Catacol]

Note also, a consistent trend for retrogression towards Greenland of our mean anomalous ridge - hard to believe if you're looking at operational GFS - but there and consistently there.

... which is all we need to back the pattern west and draw cold air out of Europe and/or Scandy. I can understand the frustration of some coldies on here, because it was only a few days ago that the ECM op had a sharp easterly for this coming weekend... but it often seems to be the case that models follow an evoluton much too quickly. This seems to be the case very much at present - the mean anomaly charts are being proven correct, but a real feed from a cold quarter is remaining elusive.

However let's not forget that it is early in winter terms yet, and now that snow cover is extending over mainland Europe we can properly look forward to cold potential. To be honest had we found the perfect synoptics last week it wouldnt really have been cold enough for anything remarkable - probably rain for most - so the time for the patterns to click is now. Also now that snow cover has extended back west we have a stronger driver for retrogresson; I forget the paper that was discussed in another thread earlier in the autumn, but there is a correlation between snow cover and upstream pressure build. The more it snows in Europe the greater the chance of the cold making its way here.

[Catacol]

06z ensembles out. Pressure build a little further south than ideal, but the overall trend as GP stated above is for the pressure to back west.

[lorenzo]

Just to highlight the variety on offer within the ensembles, have a look at the difference between these 2 perturbations.

Best example I can find of concentrating on the means. Something in these ensembles for everyone ..

[pyrotech]

Because guys we will be saying the same stuff come January ' oh it's only January 8 weeks left yet!' It needs to be happening now. Not always in a few weeks etc...

You definitely woke up with the glass half empty this morning.

Plenty of signals for a cold outlook even beyond where the models go, but okay the real potential on surface pressure and 850s stays in Fi. Lets not even talk about percipitation charts further than 24 -36 hrs out when looking for snow.

There is nothing unusual about that, the models run and comeout with different outcomes and every year the toys are thrown out of the pram, then 48 hours later everyone is watching the midnight lamppost. What is more important is the blocking and symptoms driving the Northern hemisphere right now and likely too for next 8 weeks. Trends are important in the models, the main trend is longterm cooler than average.

We are still waiting for the lady to sing, she is on the stage and it seems a long pause, but when she starts her vocals you will sit up and listen.

The cold air has arrived in UK, okay marginally not cold enough in South for Snow, but further North its changed dramatically, that from very mild weather just 10 days ago that caused severe flooding. The models showed the trend to cold and for Europe it shows deep cold trend right thru fi., its on our door step and just a short jump from our shores. Honestly these are the best drivers i have seen for many years for a possable very interesting winter, does that mean we will get a memorable winter, NO, it means the chances have increased thou. I am not going to put up charts for showing what the models are showing in Fi as they really are not worth the time beyond 144 hrs as too much inconsistancy with if and whats. Does it not tell us something when one run shows cold and one much less cold?

Yes it says two important things 1. follow same model same time daily for comparrison, 2. The best computers in the world can not see an exact way forwards beyond 144hrs.

Can i add that often this kind of scenario can lead to the biggest surprise, with battle scenario between the warm moist air and Cold dryer air

Daxy Monssaw

[Frosty.]

I've read in this thread that the GFS 00z was awful.....I find that bizarre.

BFTP

Agreed, Gfs 00z was fine, a bit more of a SEly tilt but very cold uppers drawn across the uk, especially the northern half but the end of the run was horrible as it was setting up another warm christmas!

[Neilsouth]

Anyone else notice that nobody can back up why the models are perfoming so badly?, yet the response is to look for Signals and Trends? We've also got Matt Hugo still harping on about how the ECM 32dayer looks great, yet that isn't showing as well as we'd like.

FI begins at 48hr in 2012

Edited December 4, 2012 by Victor Meldrew

[Summer Sun]

Although longer term prospects remain uncertain at the moment the next 24 hours will see a band of snow moving down from the eastern side of Scotland right down to Humberside with 5cm to 10cm possible in some parts by Wednesday morning

Moves into Scotland

By 18:00 it extends into Northumberland

By 00:00 the snow is covering north east England right down to Humberside

Now the latest from the Beeb suggests it will turn to rain as it moves further south but this could be one to watch

Edited December 4, 2012 by Gavin.

[Weathizard]

The Ens aren't as bad as I expected some proper cold members in there after the split at around 7-9 december, much happier to have seen the ens, they aren't fantastic by any means but they show this is far from sewn up

[pyrotech]

Anyone else notice that nobody can back up why the models are perfoming so badly?, yet the response is to look for Signals and Trends? We've also got Matt Hugo still harping on about how the ECM 32dayer looks great, yet that isn't showing as well as we'd like.

FI begins at 48hr in 2012

Well if someone knew the magic cure for the models they would reprogram them, its Numerical, but surely you realise how complicated this science is.

The models have probably found something close to the outcome, but which chart off which run do you want to take.

You can take all the drivers you want and still add some less signifigant part of the puzzle and get different actual outcome.

Most changes by the models have still shown very cold temperatures over Europe, both 850s and surface, so models have seen the drivers and the cold is there and rather strongly, take a look back at Europe 10 days ago and compare. We are a very small Island ( call it in my back yard , bigger scale) just because we do not get cold and mega snow does not mean the drivers did not work out, it means we just missed out, were unlucky or perhaps for some lucky.

You seem to forget the big warm bath that surrounds us, Forecasting involves Meteorology, Oceanography and climatology for uk, you can remove Oceanography to a large extent for a large Landmass like mainland Europe.

[Frosty.]

Anyone else notice that nobody can back up why the models are perfoming so badly?, yet the response is to look for Signals and Trends? We've also got Matt Hugo still harping on about how the ECM 32dayer looks great, yet that isn't showing as well as we'd like.

FI begins at 48hr in 2012

Yes I do not belieeeeeve it!

The mood has been dampened down a bit because we don't have cross model agreement for a raging easterly blast next week, but what we do have is the building blocks in place with a huge cold block to the east and persistent northern blocking, all we need is the highs and lows to behave themselves and we will have a freeze, if not, we will just be unlucky but this is the uk, a small island and not much of a target to aim at correctly, unlike the huge mass of mainland europe, russia and north america where freezes are taken for granted, ah the uk is not really positioned well for siberian beasts from the east.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Frosty039