Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

[Ian Brown]

The 06z is going the wrong way, shortwave has popped up over Norway and the core of heights is over the UK with, I would think, little chance of the necessary curveback to get the right orientation of HP.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Does anyone believe I was actually having a dig at GP? I can assure you that isn't how I meant it, I respect the guy and his work just as much as anyone but apologies if anyone saw it that way. Perhaps that 'red in the face' line was a poor choice of wording.

No...so stop worrying about it.

BFTP

[TEITS]

The shortwave is now taking a sightseeing tour to the ne.

Not the right cut back in the jet towards the UK, if its not going to head se further west then rather than just sit to the ne its better for it to just head away to the ne, this might allow the ridge to the ne to head in but a bit further south.

Here we are again discussing a Norwegian shortwave, some things never change!

Im thinking of renaming the T we see on the Wetter charts and adding a couple of letters!

I don't like to be biased in my interpretation of the model outputs but if we compare the GFS over the last few days then it has certainly moved more towards the UKMO. Although im still siding with the ECM in the handling of the SW.

[lorenzo]

This sentence from Ian highlights just how divided output will appear, and also it will allow folk to extract what they want from the runs either way - with a good case for either within the ensembles. Going to make for interesting discussion!

Thereafter a blocked pattern is expected to develop, but there are large differences between MOGREPS and EC with the detail of the block, with EC ensemble having a strong signal for an E’ly, whilst MOGREPS has a S’ly. NCEP ensemble appears to be roughly split 50/50 E’ly and S’ly.

Fingers crossed the EC Ensemble has this one in the bag to appease the 'majority' on here !

[EML Network]

Latest from Ops Centre:

" 4. Trend for Days 10-15 : Best estimate is to remain colder than average with frost more widespread than normal and some wintry ppn likely, especially in the N and E. Highest probs of milder, but wetter interludes are towards the W/SW.

5. Discussion : There are major differences between EC and MOGREPS through this period. Initially these differences are not too great, with both ensemble suites having a signal for a brief milder interlude early next week, especially across northern Britain. Thereafter a blocked pattern is expected to develop, but there are large differences between MOGREPS and EC with the detail of the block, with EC ensemble having a strong signal for an E’ly, whilst MOGREPS has a S’ly. NCEP ensemble appears to be roughly split 50/50 E’ly and S’ly. The EC solution has been favoured at the moment, with slightly more support, but with the caveat of occasional frontal incursions into at least in W’ern parts of the UK."

Wow, that's as good a description as any for a possible battleground scenario , favoring the East perhaps ?

[snowking]

£$£&$%&^**@^@£^!?£ SHORTWAVES!!!!!!

We're back to chasing towards the low res of the GFS from the 6z ops

WRT Met Office discussion posted by Ian, yes it is good to see they're favouring a blend solution with a stronger emphasis on the ECM.....IF the ECM is right. This could just as easily flip back at the 12z's no we are nowhere near set in stone with this one folks.

Hope for the better with the 12z's

SK

[Weathizard]

Ah well, another run, another shortwave drama, everything seems to get pushed back again yesterday it was at 156 now its not there at all, uppers aren't great.

Its taking its toll on me now to be honest, it seems a similar story to what we have experienced in years in the past, chasing phantom easterlys

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I'm sorry to say but I feel the models have picked up a trend, which as always is the case to push the cold back into La la land , sorry but that's how I see it , I hope I'm wrong , but Iv been hear to many times . I really hope I'm wrong, but my prediction is that we will not see any easterly next wk at all and everything will be for the wk after again just like this wk . Flipping stresses me out All this because with everything in our favour , we still manage to miss out, if its not one hurdle it's another .

[Bristawl Si]

This sentence from Ian highlights just how divided output will appear, and also it will allow folk to extract what they want from the runs either way - with a good case for either within the ensembles. Going to make for interesting discussion!

Thereafter a blocked pattern is expected to develop, but there are large differences between MOGREPS and EC with the detail of the block, with EC ensemble having a strong signal for an E’ly, whilst MOGREPS has a S’ly. NCEP ensemble appears to be roughly split 50/50 E’ly and S’ly.

Fingers crossed the EC Ensemble has this one in the bag to appease the 'majority' on here !

Probably a south-easterly on the cards then.

[Weathizard]

192-216 here comes the Atlantic firing up, still I know its out of a reliable but we need either that Norweigan sw to sod off or sink and fast otherwise we are in real trouble

[Nick F]

It's obvious from looking at the morning's operationals and the GFS + ECM ENS that NWP is struggling with the potential big pattern shift as we enter the medium range. So, again, not worth getting hung up over surface features on each GFS run post t+120.

The signal from the ECM ENS spread is for a block up towards Svalbard and trough over Europe - however, the Atlantic trough is troublesome in the medium range in that it's just far enough east to cause some uncertainties over how far west the cold will back. So at the surface the ENS spread is torn between a southerly, a southeasterly or an easterly.

However, I still believe the Atlantic trough will relent, with the energy having to be forced beneath the block to our north/NE and we get an easterly eventually.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Nick F

[nick sussex]

The 06z is going the wrong way, shortwave has popped up over Norway and the core of heights is over the UK with, I would think, little chance of the necessary curveback to get the right orientation of HP.

Yes a poor jet track and we see the results. It will still be cold at the surface but thats really not going to cut it in here!

There might be another opportunity later if the upstream pattern amplifies. I see the shortwave has continued its journey through Europe, apparently its been commisioned by the BBC, the shortwave travel show with stops in Norway, Sweden, Russia .....!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Max daytime temps over next few days down here of 4c....in cities and towns. Probably 2 c daytime maxima in places. That in my books is cold. It seems folk are chasing wanting Siberian weather to confirm cold. Well folks it has been and is COLD now. I've read in this thread that the GFS 00z was awful.....I find that bizarre.

BFTP

[TEITS]

Its taking its toll on me now to be honest, it seems a similar story to what we have experienced in years in the past, chasing phantom easterlys

I used to be like that but these days I tend to have a more laid back attitude. I have also learn't never to get excited unless an E,ly with bitter cold is modelled at least until +72. If tonights ECM starts to follow the GFS output then I will be gettting more concerned.

[Wilxy]

What time do the GFS ensembles come out?

[snowking]

The one positive we can still take longer term is the obvious shift in the PV from NE Canada across to SIberia

IF the output shown at present towards day 10 is correct (i.e we are right on the edge of a W v E battle) then as the PV moves away from Greenland, if we can remain on the northern side of the jet, theres potential for HP to move across from Scandinavia into Greenland, and leave us with some kind of Ely solution

The potential for such a solution is modelled here:

But we do need a shift west in the pattern by a few hundred miles to see this potential fulfilled

SK

[Stuart]

What time do the GFS ensembles come out?

about 12pm

[weather eater]

That’s the poorest run we have seen for quite some time, it’s not just poor it’s very poor, however I have complete trust in the experts that this is just down to poor modelling, and I will be very surprised if we don’t see some much better output this evening. It’s easy to say we have been here before and its gone the way of the pear, but we have also been seen the opposite, models having a wobble and then coming good, the ECM did that in 2010.

Edited December 4, 2012 by weather eater

[Methuselah]

Whatever particular 'solution' each model-run throws up, one thing has remained constant, throughout: the longer-term signal for a massive and intense Siberian High...And this signal (effectively for a BFTE after mid-month) is, IMHO, what we should be concentrating on??

So, in the mean time, who cares whether a 'shortwave', that's only virtual anyway, appears to end-up in an 'other than ideal' location, 12 days further down-the-line?

[bluearmy]

too many varied solutions and trends this morning. i am interested that MOGRPEPS seems to be seeing more of a sceuro block as that would be my take on the trend this morning. however, the coastal dutch ecm ens are not quite as cold this morning and i would expect a more se flow for this region to take temps on the coast even lower than yesterdays 12z suite. the spreads on ecm and nefs are confusing. the anomolys still look good. love to get off the fence but i'm afraid i'm staying up here for the time being. it has to be said that the possible options for late next week vary from cold and foggy under mid lat block all the way around from se flow and battleground snowfall from the sw to ne flow around massive block to our north/northwest. cant see a zonal non cold solution possible

[nick sussex]

Maybe this will be a mini series rather than a one off drama!

It at least doesn't look like turning mild and as Snowking posted if the PV moves back towards Siberia it will force the ridge west out of Russia.

Also keep a check on the upstream pattern, if you get some amplification there you could still end up with the easterly as theres still enough forcing from the ne to help disrupt any troughing.

The GFS 06hrs hints at this, I'm neither disappointed or elated by this output, I'm in a holding pattern, things could take a turn for the worse though so be warned Mr Grumpy might be back later!

[Methuselah]

Maybe this will be a mini series rather than a one off drama!

It at least doesn't look like turning mild and as Snowking posted if the PV moves back towards Siberia it will force the ridge west out of Russia.

Also keep a check on the upstream pattern, if you get some amplification there you could still end up with the easterly as theres still enough forcing from the ne to help disrupt any troughing.

The GFS 06hrs hints at this, I'm neither disappointed or elated by this output, I'm in a holding pattern, things could take a turn for the worse though so be warned Mr Grumpy might be back later!

War And Peace?

[Iceaxecrampon]

Yes - a poor 06Z in the long term - short term looking promising for the band of ppn heading South snow down to low levels away from coasts.

Thought it was quiet and you know it's bad output as the Output Discussion is not at the top of the leaderboard....

Everyone on here? http://forum.netweat...moaning-thread/

Cumbria ensembles GEFS mean still holding steady for cold through to the 19th well chilly on the 6th.

Ignore the later control run hopefully.

06Z FI for the bin?

Ian

Edited December 4, 2012 by Iceaxecrampon

[snowking]

With just a few small changes the control run looks better at +144

The differences being the pattern has backed west about 100 miles or so, and because the second shortwave from Iceland is a little slower, the siberian HP manages to ridge through the weak trough solution through scandinavia into central europe that was suggested by the op, cutting off the low to the south

This highlights the very small margins we are playing with here. It still most likely won't be brilliant, but a step towards something better purely from the timing of one of those shortwaves....butterfly effect...

SK

Edited December 4, 2012 by snowking

[Timmytour]

One crumb of comfort to take from the GFS 6z.... Once runs start getting this good/bad the next one usually flips!