Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[Harsh Climate]

O no whats that bumping into our scandi high between iceland and scandinavia, looks like a spoiler!

Edited December 5, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[MKN]

It's looking awesome!

The centre of the high needs to be north of Scotland ideally any shift further south and there would be no easterly.

[nick sussex]

With that deep low moving east out of the USA and the upstream pattern theres no way for mild air to even dream of darkening our door for a very long time.

In terms of where the high is placed a different theme from the 00hrs because of the residual energy left to the north which doesn't allow the Russian ridge to orientate more favourably.

The main thing is that we've survived another run with no shortwave drama, the detail afterwards is likely to change frequently, the only detail thats important for now is the shortwave.

[ITSY]

for those in the SE, this is a better run. for those away from that corner, the HP is too close to the UK for my liking and the siberian high is too far north to link up...we'll see if it makes a difference. either way, super trends remain!!!

EDIT: HP slowly retrogresses NW and the secondary low over europe intensifies the Easterly, heights continue to rise over scandi and the siberian hp makes inroads - all within a couple more frames.

Edited December 5, 2012 by ITSY

[Snowy Easterlies]

easterly going to ibiza

[Harsh Climate]

for those in the SE, this is a better run. for those away from that corner, the HP is too close to the UK for my liking and the siberian high is too far north to link up...we'll see if it makes a difference. either way, super trends remain!!!

In my experience, these types of set-ups are renowned for going pete tong at the last moment, the biggest killer being the Scandinavian high just edging too far south leaving us dry while mainland europe get clobbered with blizzards!

Not saying it will happen this time but there is always that worry, would be nicer if we could get a greeny high to develop as that would be infanitly the safer option!

Edited December 5, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Wilxy]

At least the trend is still there, and it pushes the high even further west but also slightly south

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just a quick word about this run.

DO NOT focus on the orientation or positioning of the HP because this will change even within the +72 timeframe. Whether we have a E/ENE/ESE,ly all has implications on the distributions of showers and the upper temps will change also. I never look at this kind of detail until 24/48hrs out.

All I want to see at the moment is the models continuing with the same output and for the UKMO to finally come on board which slowly its beginning to do so.

Agreed we look at the trend again , roll on Monday , details will change but the theme is cold easterly winds, just hope short waves don't ruin things again.

[Snowy Liverpool]

Well at least the high is moving west. I'm guessing Greenland belongs to High pressure after that PV moves away.

[Fred Sykes]

It's looking awesome!

Oh Matron!!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's going to have another go at linking I think. As Nick said, it's completely blocked either way.

[ITSY]

In my experience, these types of set-ups are renowned for going pete tong at the last moment, the biggest killer being the Scandinavian high just edging too far south leaving us dry while mainland europe get clobbered with blizzards!

Not saying it will happen this time but there is always that worry, would be nicer if we could get a greeny high to develop as that would be infanitly the safer option!

looks like GFS agrees with you!

[TEITS]

Might be wrong but you just wait until +192 on this run when a stronger E,ly flow will kick in!!

[latitude]

I fail to see any easterly on the 06z. A NE flow of some sort thats about it. By 168 it looks messy. The trend is still there though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Might be wrong but you just wait until +192 on this run when a stronger E,ly flow will kick in!!

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-174.png?6

There's gona be a bit of snow around 192 on this run. Fear is though that LP pushing up around Germany eventually invites the Atlantic in from the SW as it pushes west!

Edited December 5, 2012 by CreweCold

[Weathizard]

From an IMBY perspective this is still a very good run. For everyone the good this is its very blocked, very cold and there is a high chance of snow. But still a long way to go.

[Neilsouth]

GFS does love developing pesky shortwaves, it's as if there's a little goblin like creature working on the gfs models going " SHORTWAVE MY PRECIOUS "

[ITSY]

I fail to see any easterly on the 06z. A NE flow of some sort thats about it. By 168 it looks messy. The trend is still there though.

here you are then:

if you are excited by snow and don't like that chart, then you need to look again!!

for the eastern contingent: streamers and showers galore!

no point in pinning hopes on such detail at this range, but its the development of what leads to this within the reliable that is crucial. and that is what is excellent so far; the building blocks are in place IN the reliable

Edited December 5, 2012 by ITSY

[TEITS]

There's gona be a bit of snow around 192 on this run. Fear is though that LP pushing up around Germany eventually invites the Atlantic in from the SW as it pushes west!

The Atlantic moving in is probably the very last thing I would expect!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

As I thought a stronger E,ly flow at +192.

Edited December 5, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Methuselah]

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20121205;time=06;ext=180;file=h850t850eu;sess=99ab4b184ee975ea10c512d3a63f753d;

But that shortwave could prove rather interesting?

[Southern Storm]

Might be wrong but you just wait until +192 on this run when a stronger E,ly flow will kick in!!

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-174.png?6

yes I would agree with this, and look at them cold uppers way out east! Come to daddy

Like you said though a lot can change but eventually that cold is gonna work its way west.

Edit .... that was before the Pv spawned that low north of scandi.

Edited December 5, 2012 by thunderman24

[Nick F]

Looks like a classic textbook easterly evolving, following all the empirical rules that no doubt Pro Mets are taught.

Take the beginnings of the Jan '87 easterly, as an example, the way it evolved it not too disimilar to what we are seeing from the models atm. Low drops SE near Norway towards Denmark/Germany along the 500mb flow, then height rises to the north of the sinking low:

T+96 of today's 06z GFS run, ok the low's deeper and less deep cold over E Europe/W Russia, but not a million miles away synoptically:

Edited December 5, 2012 by Nick F

[Cheshire Freeze]

The Atlantic moving in is probably the very last thing I would expect!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

Yep, you're right, high far enough west to prevent this

[Harsh Climate]

looks like GFS agrees with you!

It ends up alright in the end . But that small hicup at 144h shows you just what could go wrong.

[Snowy Liverpool]

Screw it I've been wating a month for this bloody easterly to happen I'm willing to take the hit for 4-5 days if it means the PV goes away and frees Greenland up as shown on the 06z.