Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[liltbrockie]

The LP is further south over Iceland at T69 and heights are stronger over Greenland ... looking good

[Wilxy]

Oh and the alantic low is further west aswel looking good so far.

[Harsh Climate]

Th

The low in the atlantic is also much further west, expect our scandi high on this run to be even further west!

Edited December 5, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Nick F]

00z ECM H500 ensemble mean t+168-240 looks encouraging for an easterly, block developing Scandi/Norwegain Sea:

IMO the disruption of the Atlantic trough is key to get the cogs turning to get this easterly in place.

There may still be some wobbles to come, but a Scandi High bringing colder air from the east is looking to be the form horse, how cold it will get and how much snow there will be are less certain though.

But looking out my window this morning at the snow, plenty more pleasant wintry surprises hopefully on the way this month

[ITSY]

at +90 the 06Z is an upgrade if anything!

[Methuselah]

A net-weather prayer please all: may the LP drop south without any pesky shortwaves, God...thank you Lord!

Edited December 5, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[Southern Storm]

Looks very fast to me but this is becoming a trend to see the GH pulled west at an earlier timeframe allowing the low to slip south east,

Just need this to be repeated by the 12z and most importantly backed up by the ukmo.

[ITSY]

only worry is that the link up between the Siberian and Icelandic HPs doesn't seem to be as fast...everything else is quicker though which is quite odd.

[lorenzo]

http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html

EPIC!!!!!!!

Control run please.

S

Steve, given your intense tracking of these over the years, if you were to give this a chance at verification what would it be? 50% 80%.

Saw Nick F posting about one that vanished off the charts at 72 hours and left things deflated, without the experience of these fickle things you and others like Ian and Nick(s) have how do you rate this evolution.

At a punt that Scandi block is looking better by the day so I think chances are high..

CC you inspired me. Steve Murr reading ensembles..

[Jonan92]

The low is further south and the Scandi High is further west

[TEITS]

What I find rather amusing is Sunday is likely to provide the mildest max temps of around 5C, colder in Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

When I joined this forum many years ago we would of considered that a cold spell!

[GoonerGregg77]

If this goes T*t's up now, I reckon we should all hold hands together and take some sleeping pills, and go gently!

This is model PORN!

Please, please, please verify! I don't think we could take another backtrack!

[Wilxy]

Heights slightly higher over greenland good sign and alantic lows further west.

[nick sussex]

A very good GFS run so far, just one small criticism from me! we'd want that residual energy left near Scandi to dissipate a little quicker.

Upstream nice to report no support for the UKMO.

Edited December 5, 2012 by nick sussex

[ITSY]

Easterly on Monday..only folks disappointed *could* at this range be those in N/NW Scotland, but that is not the area that usually does best out of these anyway. For the bulk of us, ANOTHER upgrade by 120!

[Southern Storm]

Upper temps are better on this run and the orientation oh the Scandinavian high looks nicer to my untrained eye.

[Snowy Liverpool]

There's a shift sownwest in jthe weak high, but the siberian high is a bit further North, might explain why the link up is taking longer. Oh well, the further west the better, as long as the low moves south with no strong shortwaves behind it the block will form.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Steve, given your intense tracking of these over the years, if you were to give this a chance at verification what would it be? 50% 80%.

Saw Nick F posting about one that vanished off the charts at 72 hours and left things deflated, without the experience of these fickle things you and others like Ian and Nick(s) have how do you rate this evolution.

At a punt that Scandi block is looking better by the day so I think chances are high..

CC you inspired me. Steve Murr reading ensembles..

Easterlys are notoriously fickle beasts. I find the HP is rarely ever anchored favourably so that any slight alteration in jet energy over the top can either sink the high faster than a lead balloon or push it too far east.....hence the past model heartbreak. I tend to not let myself get too excited over easterlys in the 168hrs timeframe as they rarely come off as progged at that juncture!

The best easterlys tend to come about where there is a pattern for retrograde which pulls the high ever west and prevents it from going south! Heights jutting towards Greenland are never a bad thing.

Edited December 5, 2012 by CreweCold

[Jonan92]

Scandi High further north, we can easily see what the consecuences of this change are in the 850hpa NH map

00z run

06z run

[Wilxy]

Better ridge towards greenland on this run so far.

[Methuselah]

Could be a stonkeroony, come Tuesday?

[tonbridgemole]

Oh Yes Please!!

[Jonan92]

It's looking awesome!

[TEITS]

Just a quick word about this run.

DO NOT focus on the orientation or positioning of the HP because this will change even within the +72 timeframe. Whether we have a E/ENE/ESE,ly all has implications on the distributions of showers and the upper temps will change also. I never look at this kind of detail until 24/48hrs out.

All I want to see at the moment is the models continuing with the same output and for the UKMO to finally come on board which slowly its beginning to do so.

[Snowy Liverpool]

Lol in true GFS fashion we get the weakest looking shortwave ever just cutting across a massive high pressure as if it isn't even there...