Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Lets all be positive,,,,,Just think how lucky we are to be avoiding cold frosty mornings,scrapping ice off windscreens,late night lamp post watching, kids out building snowman, weather forecasters saying "no end insight to deep freeze" Blue sky crisp frosty days, We are so lucky, [ depressed myself now]

. I feel depressed now would like it to b like that lol

[Great Plum]

Just because the 12z shows zonal doesn't mean that will happen. The previous few runs have shown a ridge of high pressure in the mid Atlantic from New Year's Day... Lets hope that trend continues!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z GFS always mild biased and progressive, that FI seems to suggest spring arriving, just after autumn ends,

hope models start to develop high pressure cheer, high pressure over UK even mild, seems as rare as snow these days

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECMWF done just that, very cold end to run, very little snow but very cold new years eve and 01 Jan

[snowray]

ECMWF done just that, very cold end to run, very little snow but very cold new years eve and 01 Jan

ECMWF done just that, very cold end to run, very little snow but very cold new years eve and 01 Jan

Yes a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel...Could we have some upgrades for a change please models?

After all the near misses we have seen in the last month or so I hope we can get a slightly more interesting January than the dross of recent years.

I always say take your snow when you can, might not get another decent set up for ages some years, people say: ahh but winter has just started.

But how many mild muck Januarys have we had of late, loads!

Edited December 22, 2012 by snowray

[sundog]

But how many mild muck Januarys have we had of late, loads!

Thats one thing that i am worried about ,the fact that most jans of the last 20 odd yrs have been crap. Every year i look forward to jan in the hope of a big cold spell and most years of late they just end in disappointment. The first half of jan 2010 was great of course ,i would love to get something similar this jan.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yeah, Jan does seem to be the mildest, least snowiest month, with Feb being snowier but springlike towards the end

[cerneman]

Thats one thing that i am worried about ,the fact that most jans of the last 20 odd yrs have been crap. Every year i look forward to jan in the hope of a big cold spell and most years of late they just end in disappointment. The first half of jan 2010 was great of course ,i would love to get something similar this jan.

Getting old now, but my experience of earlier years was that from very end December through Jan Feb the prime time for cold, The big winters of past seem fall into that pattern, The 2010 cold seemed to me very early, Suppose it what we have experienced in our life times,,,,,,,

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

IMBY Feb 09 delivered. Some great sledging was had on the hills of Leicestershire. I would happily settle for a repeat of that this year. Will the stratosphere deliver a SSW to provide a chance?

[Aaron]

People need to lower their expectations - you cannot realistically expect a severe cold spell every winter. If we get the odd fleeting northerly in January and February that lasts for 3 days, well, that's what we should expect in any given winter. If this winter ends up similar to last with a single cold spell in February, it will already be better than many recent winters and winters of the past.

If you can't do that, then you should consider booking a 3 month holiday to Scandinavia, or move to the Cairn Gorm summit, otherwise you'll end up angry and bitter every winter, for no good reason.

Of course, this is a thread for moaning about the models.. so I'll leave it there.

Edited December 22, 2012 by Aaron

[cerneman]

People need to lower their expectations - you cannot realistically expect a severe cold spell every winter. If we get the odd fleeting northerly in January and February that lasts for 3 days, well, that's what we should expect in any given winter. If this winter ends up similar to last with a single cold spell in February, it will already be better than many recent winters and winters of the past.

If you can't do that, then you should consider booking a 3 month holiday to Scandinavia, or move to the Cairn Gorm summit, otherwise you'll end up angry and bitter every winter, for no good reason.

Of course, this is a thread for moaning about the models.. so I'll leave it there.

Fully agree, That is why the exceptional winters of past are remembered, And even the big ones were not winter long events, I just look on cold spells being break from our norm Edited December 22, 2012 by cerneman

[snowingtequila]

Big ones may not have been winter long but frozen and snowy for January, February and start of March is a pretty long time. Particularly as in the big ones this wasn't the first cold spell

[Bartlett Low]

A lot of poor forecasts on this site this winter.

It amuses me somewhat that people plough so much time into predicting the largely unpredictable.

Before you have a go, this is my uk forecast for this (or any) winter.

Mildish, with colder periods, mainly (but not limited to) the North and East.

There you go. It's an easy game when you look at the big picture.

[cerneman]

Big ones may not have been winter long but frozen and snowy for January, February and start of March is a pretty long time. Particularly as in the big ones this wasn't the first cold spell

Longest cold spell I remember 62/63 , Boxing day through to 6 March, 47 winter started end Jan think that finished March,[ not born for that one] 62/63 winter 50 years ago Edited December 22, 2012 by cerneman

[SouthPennine88]

Talk about January seeing it's very low amount of severe cold especially in the second half, that would be very true.

January 2012:Milder than average

January 2011: Slightly cooler than average but no severe cold

2009: trended slightly cooler all the way through with some notable bursts in the North but non eventful in the South

2008: Mild

2007: Mostly mild, brief cold Midlands Northwards 21/22nd

2006: Average but nothing to note

2005: nothing

2004: bit like 2009

2003: nothing

2002: nothing

February however has always seen a more traditional colder theme (especially during Milder than average Winters, Feb is usually the exception)

2012: Colder first half

2009: Cold first half

2008: Little cold spell especially North 1/2nd

2007: A bit of a decent spell for some around mid month

2006: End of Feb/March

2005: End of Feb/March

2004: End of Feb

To be honest we are due a cold January really, although I wouldn't be surprised if we get the most coldest weather this Winter in feb.

In terms of the models, we probably aren't in for anything in the first few days/week of January but continued interest of cold as we progress through.

Anything, please, other than this horrible model watching at the moment! Rain,Rain,Rain ...

[SouthPennine88]

Yeah, Jan does seem to be the mildest, least snowiest month, with Feb being snowier but springlike towards the end

I would say Cold Winters usually like to bring in the Spring like weather earlier (especially when the colder weather occurs in November/December/January, but it all depends on when the cold actually arrives ... as I say in my last post, a fair few typical 1990's/2000's Winters did like colder weather at the end of Feb/Mid Feb (2007 ... 2006 and 2005 in particular, 2004, 2002).

It does actually involve a bit of natural occurrence to be honest, for example, if we have early notable cold, Spring likes to arrive early (Feb/March), but if we have early mildish weather, Spring likes to arrive in late (March April).

[Bristawl Si]

I certainly would not be surprised to see a complete turnaround come 2nd week of January.

Some of the winters that i've experienced where it's been v wet in november and/or december have been followed by the complete opposite for January/February.

Nothing scientific about this.

[SnowObsessor90]

So winters over, there's absolutely no hope AT ALL. Well that's what you'd believe reading posts on here. I won't any more in fear of getting into trouble but I think you get the general gist.

[SouthPennine88]

So winters over, there's absolutely no hope AT ALL. Well that's what you'd believe reading posts on here. I won't any more in fear of getting into trouble but I think you get the general gist.

The last few posts certainly haven't said it's over.

I for one perhaps would be a little surprised if we go on and receive a huge pattern change to cold in January (the second week of January is being talked about a lot), but then again I'd say it's almost impossible for us not to get something during the rest of this Winter, whether it be February 2009, February/March 2005 or January 1983. (Or 1946/47. You know I had to say that)

At the moment though, nothing to note today except just rain rain and rain and mild mild mild, although perhaps better fortunes for New year on the ECM (but I won't be in this country for that time)

People always go on and talk about FI being pointless and some people sometimes dis regard it, but to be honest if the vast majority of models point to the same conditions in FI, you can't really argue against it.

Edited December 22, 2012 by SouthPennine88

[MP-R]

I can quite safely say that winter will finally arrive in the second week of January, as I fly back to Spain on the 7th. This is when the jet will go south!

[SnowObsessor90]

The last few posts certainly haven't said it's over.

You know what I mean . Now I can't say I'm not one to have a good moan or I don't have fears about this winter possibly being another 'nearly one' but the extremes some people go to especially in that particular thread are just beyond ridiculous. I suppose it's my own punishment for even bothering to look in there nevermind the models themselves

Edited December 23, 2012 by Anonymous21

[mackerel sky]

Ho ho ho. Merry Christmas from the GFS 18z tonight. For Christmas I want a boat.

Remember to look at all the ensembles folks! Oh I just did, piffle.

The weather is fickle after all on our shores. It might change.

I quote Greg Lake

They said there'll be snow at Christmas

They said there'll be peace on Earth

But instead it just kept on raining

I'd welcome a just frost just to harden up all those dog turds that need picking up. It was a bad experience today in the rain. Dog poo juice. Not good.

Happy Christmas everyone on Netweather!

[mackerel sky]

This was the massive dissapointment of early January 2008 where a block had been built up and built up on here. I recall said day, which was rather cold with only a light flurry. Then it went in the flick of a switch. Westerlies dominated thereafter. That was the only sniff.

http://www.wetterzen...00120080103.gif

Edited December 23, 2012 by mackerel sky

[MP-R]

Ooo I remember that - one of the great failed easterlies! Two cold days, one snow flurry then cold rain thereafter. Amazing considering a measly 1025mb Azores High still managed to beat a 1055mb Russian high!

[JP1972]

I hope this latest strat warming is as good as the last one.

I reckon my thongs will dry in minutes rather than hours on the old washing line.

Now, let's look at the CPS charts and 6z for November 2013 ....