Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[AWD]

Temperature currently 7.5c here.

A scattering of showers coming down from WNW across the Bristol Channel into Devon & Somerset currently.

Aside from if you catch one of these, it looks like a dry & periodically sunny day.

[Bristawl Si]

Can't help thinking that this winter will be a 'nearly one', in terms of cold and snow, for our part of the UK.

[Andy Bown]

I'm here AWD!

Enjoying today's weather with plenty of sunshine and every cloud is a shower moving in from the Bristol Channel giving regular rainbows

and sharp, brief showers. Some lovely cloudscapes including a few CBs.

[AWD]

I'm here AWD!

Enjoying today's weather with plenty of sunshine and every cloud is a shower moving in from the Bristol Channel giving regular rainbows

and sharp, brief showers. Some lovely cloudscapes including a few CBs.

Lol. I was thinking of re-naming the thread the "AWD thread".

Yes, some nice cloud structures aloft, associated with the showers passing through. Have been hit by two so far, neither amounting to anything special, but the last one did produce a half hearted attempt at a rainbow.

NAE suggests shower activity picking up into the evening too, before dying out later into the night, so be interesting to see if the intensity of any showers increases, as well as any other convective element added amongst them.

Edited December 17, 2012 by AWD

[Nights King]

A couple of hefty hail showers this morning but apart from that pretty damp and non descript weather again today 6.8c

[gottolovethisweather]

Lol. I was thinking of re-naming the thread the "AWD thread".

No, I'm lurking too. Please keep your posts coming as you are helping to inform us all. Hoepfully fergieweather will pop online again as some point as he has been noticeably absent in recent days, I suspect, no doubt due to his family commitments.

Edited December 17, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Chris K]

Sooo...

Whos looking forward to the thrill of chasing Spanish Plumes and slack thundery lows next year?

[AWD]

Sooo...

Whos looking forward to the thrill of chasing Spanish Plumes and slack thundery lows next year?

Hell yeah!

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=qD-UQ_AP0wI&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DqD-UQ_AP0wI&gl=GB&client=mv-vf-uk&safesearch=always

[Bumpkin]

hi all, thunder here and as dark as night!

My parents visited yesterday. they drove down the A303 past Wincanton on the way to us and I think my Mum nearly pooped herself when a crack of lightening hit the road not far in front of them.

[latitude]

Am I the only one left standing in here? lol.

The NAE is starting to show Wednesdays rain event now so it will be interesting to see how this handles the depression. T48 shows a heavy, organised band of rain, approaching from the west, getting into Cornwall by dawn:

This is associated with a large depression in the Atlantic. Tight isobars also suggest gusty winds at times;

For anyone pondering about the Stratosphere. There has been a mention of downgrades in the Strat thread this morning. This is in terms of the temperature of any warming, which has been downgraded to more realistic levels. The warming itself is still there however at day 10. Here you can see two charts for the 10hpa level;

This is it currently;

This is it at day 10;

The 30hpa level now;

And at day 10;

You can see from those charts that there is still a significant warming forecast to take place, along with promising signs of a decent wave break 2.

Where this leads to & how it will affect the PV is currently uncertain, and this is the point I will transfer you over to the experts in the Stratosphere thread as I'm not confident on any outcome of any warming currently.

For the short term then, its all -

RAIN. RAIN. RAIN. MILD. MILD. MILD.

Signals, signals, signals. Weve had all that, that means nothing to our little rock right next to the Atlantic. It seems we can have everything in place, but that dosent mean the UK will get cold. There was a stratoshphere warming event in Jan/February this year...there were some very cold nights, but no snow IMBY.

[Snow shut work]

Lovely and mild today. Winter's over. Bartletts all the way. Azores ridging North.

Able to walk around in normal office wear without a coat. Long may this continue.

It is ironic really, we needed the synopsis we have now in June/July etc and got what we need now in mid-summer. It's so wrong it makes me ill.

2 years in a row....you couldn't make it up.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Snow shut work

[AWD]

Signals, signals, signals. Weve had all that, that means nothing to our little rock right next to the Atlantic. It seems we can have everything in place, but that dosent mean the UK will get cold. There was a stratoshphere warming event in Jan/February this year...there were some very cold nights, but no snow IMBY.

?? I didn't say it would lead to cold/snow, hence the last paragraph. All I simply described is what is currently happening above our heads, and what's forecast to happen over the next couple of weeks. If you want info on how it may affect us then your best going into the Strat thread and asking far more knowledgable posters in there rather than me, as I haven't a scooby. All I know is a Stratospheric warming is coming, along with wave breaking activity. Whether this will lead to your 6" of snow you crave, I don't know sorry. It could but it just as easily could not. Like I said, I ain't a clue, best asking someone else. A stratospheric warming does not mean its going to snow, far far from it.

Anyway, the latest NAE enhances tonight's shower activity across Devon, Somerset & Dorset:

Suggestive of some rather potent downpours mixed in there. I wouldn't be surprised to see hail, thunder & lightning also present, although we will have to wait for further 12z data before going into that too much.

Nevertheless, could be some interesting convective potential for some tonight, something that's worth keeping an eye on for sure.

Edited December 17, 2012 by AWD

[ARTDEMOLE]

7.8c. Sun is out .Showers have stopped.Breeze at 4mph.Southerly.

[gottolovethisweather]

Signals, signals, signals. Weve had all that, that means nothing to our little rock right next to the Atlantic. It seems we can have everything in place, but that dosent mean the UK will get cold. There was a stratoshphere warming event in Jan/February this year...there were some very cold nights, but no snow IMBY.

or depending on how lucky we get. I appreciate the constructive posts in these forums as much as anybody, I think it only drives to further one's passion in Meteorology. Most probably, the best way to anlayse things from further afield is to never expect EPIC snowfalls, Thunderstorms, wind events etc. etc. Otherwise, all one is doing is preparing yourself/ourselves for a fall.

[cerneman]

Sunshine and sharp showers today, Just checked Calender,thought might have skipped to April.

[gottolovethisweather]

Sooo...

Whos looking forward to the thrill of chasing Spanish Plumes and slack thundery lows next year?

Yes I am, but let's at least have some winter before we get there. In fact, I love Spring more than any other season but that's for more than one reason than just the weater. I sincerely hope we get some decent humidity again next year as the dearth of decent all-nighter Thunderstorms has been driving me mad in recent years.

[AWD]

Wednesday still looks like a very wet day. Cornwall, Devon & South Dorset look like receiving the highest rainfall totals as things stand, upto 30mm widely in these areas, perhaps 40mm locally.

Somerset, Wiltshire, Hampshire, Gloucestershire & the Bristol area look like getting off a little better, perhaps 15mm - 25mm here, although still not needed of course:

Although we will probably get a better idea tomorrow morning, when the full event is within the NAE timescale.

Gusty S/SW winds at a time too;

Edited December 17, 2012 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

Lovely and mild today. Winter's over. Bartletts all the way. Azores ridging North.

Able to walk around in normal office wear without a coat. Long may this continue.

It is ironic really, we needed the synopsis we have now in June/July etc and got what we need now in mid-summer. It's so wrong it makes me ill.

2 years in a row....you couldn't make it up.

Not sure of your age and experience of our winters but many a winter has passed me by with limited snowfall and a lack of ICE days, so it is not really stunning to have 2 years in a row of rather dismal synoptics. In actual fact, there are another 74 days of chasing snow fun to be had before the 2 years are even complete.

Edited December 17, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Quite rightly though, aside from the snow, we SHOULD be more worried about the flooding probabilities in the next week or so.

Things also seem okay when they're NOT or conversely ARE HAPPENING in your back yard.

Things are very interesting right now if you are interested in the weather, all IMHO of course.

[AWD]

Not good;

[Frosty_wsm]

Things are very interesting right now if you are interested in the weather, all IMHO of course.

Things are getting interesting with the models too, is fascinating watching them unfold in the past few days, fi really is around 72h at the moment but that cold air is oh so close to the uk in the run up to xmas and at the moment nobody knows what the festive period will be like.

[AWD]

Interesting to note, the Meto currently only have an advisory out for Cornwall & the Torbay area of Devon for Wednesdays rainfall event.

Looking at the current charts, and considering its all within 48 hours now, I expect that advisory to widen and cover much more of the South West & West Country.

It's going to be a very wet day for us all.

[Evening thunder]

Lovely and mild today. Winter's over. Bartletts all the way. Azores ridging North.

Able to walk around in normal office wear without a coat. Long may this continue.

It is ironic really, we needed the synopsis we have now in June/July etc and got what we need now in mid-summer. It's so wrong it makes me ill.

2 years in a row....you couldn't make it up.

Not completely true, if we had what we're having now or the models are showing in the next few weeks we would still have a succession of lows bringing in lots of rain and probably average temps most of the time. before the last couple of years we had a couple where things happened at the right time at least in winter. Having said that I agree it can be a bit frustrating at times when that seems to happen.

Seems to be a fair bit of uncertainty with rain totals after Wednesday, with some models i.e the GFS going for another feature bringing heavy rain Wednesday night that could be problematic, but others including the Met Office/BBC forecasts at the moment going for just the one band going through on Wednesday. Not sure which will happen at the moment.

The GFS shows a particularly heavy/widespread event Friday night into Saturday on the latest run but it's most likely too far off for the detail to be correct at this stage.

[AWD]

Band of showers currently across much of the South West heading SE towards the south coast.

Nothing more than heavyish rain showers though.

[cerneman]

Interesting to note, the Meto currently only have an advisory out for Cornwall & the Torbay area of Devon for Wednesdays rainfall event.

Looking at the current charts, and considering its all within 48 hours now, I expect that advisory to widen and cover much more of the South West & West Country.

It's going to be a very wet day for us all.

Met office warning extended to include most of Dorset,