South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 12th 2012>

[Coast]

Flood risk increases as heavy rain returns

After a relatively quiet and cold first half of December, the weather is going to turn much more unsettled from Wednesday onwards – bringing heavy rain and an increased risk of flooding. As always, the cause of this change is down to the position and speed of the jet stream. During the next five days, it is going to largely sit to the south of the UK, which means that low pressure systems will be steered towards us.

It’s not just the jet stream’s position that will play a part in our weather fortunes in the coming week, but also its speed. At times, it will reach around 200mph, which will increase the frequency at which areas of low pressure arrive on our shores. Autumn and winter is a time of year when much of the UK experiences greatest amounts of rainfall, so this in itself is not unusual. However, this year, the problem is that that it has been very wet. We’ve had the wettest April and June on record, followed by the wettest summer in a century, with downpours continuing into the autumn.

The abundance of rainfall has led to the ground in many areas becoming sodden with water. It simply doesn’t have the capacity to soak up more, if any, water at all. So rather than water going into the ground, it stays above it, causing surface water or river flooding. You only have to take a look at the Channel 4 News flood story archive to see how widespread and frequent flooding has been during the last six months.

Rainfall during next five days

The first area of low pressure will bring heavy rain and brisk winds to many places during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. While there is a little uncertainty in exactly where the greatest amounts of rain will be, England, Wales and south east Scotland look most prone. Latest predictions from the weather computer models have 30-50mm falling widely in these areas over the next five days, with some places seeing as much as 70mm.

With so much rain expected to fall, it is worth keeping an eye on the latest flood warnings from the Environment Agency and Scottish Environment Protection Agency.

Is Christmas still looking green rather than white?

There is still a trend for Christmas day to be unsettled with brisk winds, rain or showers and average temperatures, which means away from mountain tops in Scotland, snow is looking unlikely. However, some of the weather computer models have shown hints of colder air

arriving later on Christmas day, but it’s not a strong signal and can’t be trusted just yet.

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/flood-risk-increases-heavy-rain-returns/2664

[Ben_Cambs]

A wet end to the day coming up tomorrow and into Thursday as portrayed by the FAX charts:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

GFS 12 PPN accumilation up to lunchtime Thursday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs4814.gif

Most rainfall further south and west in the region. As a comparison the NAE 12z:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/12/18/basis12/ukuk/rsum/12122012_1812.gif

Again going for substiantially more rainfall than GFS. Judging by recent performances, I'd expect GFS to be closer to the mark out of the two. Possibly more rain on Saturday.

Towards the weekend the models diverge, with the possibility of a continental influence to our weather by the weekend as per the GFS 12z (even some snowfall on Sunday from the GFS 12z on this run) , however equally the Atlantic may break through as per UKMO 12z.

Also, happy birthday Jason!

[gottolovethisweather]

Once the next few days of potential flooding are over, the run up to Christmas is still loooking most interesting IMO. I won't promise snow at such a range but the synoptics could be promising a nice frosty one for example, come the big day. Even a scandi high is being progged around that time according to the GFS 12z and all this after yesterday's rather tasty run. The downside being that the model suites are still somewhat confused and Christmas Day itself is well into the realms of FI. What happens over the next few days and how far the fronts progress over into the continent and the consequent synoptics thereafter will determine how things evolve over the festive period. Unsettled for now but no guarantee that that will be the case in seven to ten days time.

Edited December 18, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

Once the next few days of potential flooding are over, the run up to Christmas is still loooking most interesting IMO.

In a broad sense I'll go along with that GTLTW. Temps are certainly set to drop according to GFS free atmosphere:

[Ben_Cambs]

Once the next few days of potential flooding are over, the run up to Christmas is still loooking most interesting IMO. I won't promise snow at such a range but the synoptics could be promising a nice frosty one for example, come the big day. Even a scandi high is being progged around that time according to the GFS 12z and yesterday's run waas also a rather tasty one. The downside being that the model suites are still somewhat confused and Christmas Day itself is well into the realms of FI. What happens over the next few days and how far the fronts progress over into the continent and the consequent synoptics thereafter will determine how things evolve over the festive period. Unsettled for now but no guarantee that that will be the case over the next seven to ten days.

GFS 12z would be perfect weather for Christmas Day!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS 12z would be perfect weather for Christmas Day!

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn16817.png

Exactly. Time will tell of course but the last two 12z runs have been interesting and when you look at things from a Northern Hemipshere perspective, there are a lot of upper air complications, which could in turn, change the forecast considerably, in time for Christmas. Of course, equally we could under dry and frosty conditions, maybe some wintry stuff or conversely yet further deluges.

Edited December 18, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

gfs at 120

any shift west would change the whole outlook around christmas

fax chart tonight and certainly tomorrow night worth looking at

[Dan the Man]

All to play for looking at that latest output.

[shotski]

gfs at 120

any shift west would change the whole outlook around christmas

fax chart tonight and certainly tomorrow night worth looking at

Hi JP

And the trend over the last few days has been to move everything a tad further west run by run so you never know ?

To be honest t-120 seems to be FI at the moment so I'm happy with GFS and ECM at this stage

anything else is just pure speculation

[Pixel]

Hi JP

And the trend over the last few days has been to move everything a tad further west run by run so you never know ?

To be honest t-120 seems to be FI at the moment so I'm happy with GFS and ECM at this stage

anything else is just pure speculation

...and each model comes up with something new every 6 hours ! It's way hot in the model thread for anything to settle tho

Here's to wishing the white stuff makes it to us on Christmas day - that would be fab... (edit: not just cos I put a bet on ages ago) but it's been a long wait since 1999

(-:

[lottiekent]

Never seen a white Christmas Day here in all of my 35 years...several white Boxing Day's yes, but not Christmas Day. I think I'm overdue

Edit: forgot to mention it is chillier than I was expecting here this evening, currently down to 3.8c

Edited December 18, 2012 by lottiekent

[Snowangel-MK]

Top ten: Snowiest Christmas days

Snow at Christmas is recorded in two ways – the number of stations that reported snow falling, and the number of stations that recorded snow on the ground at 9 am.

The two charts show the snowiest Christmases for both measures since 1959.

http://metofficenews...christmas-days/

[Jason T]

This should keep you on your toes then. If it pans out like this, there is an area inland and around the IOW that will see substantial accumulations from this:

OOOOH i Like Coast,,Just wonder if we could achieve this.... THE SNOWY WINTER OF 1947: This event began late, as up until mid-January, although there had been cold spells, the weather was not particularly extreme. Includes the coldest February (by CET = minus 1.9degC) in that series, and you had to go back to 1895 for a comparable value (minus 1.. This is now thought to be the snowiest winter of the 20th century (and perhaps the snowiest since 1814), with some snow falling somewhere across the country between 22nd January and 17th March & although some lowland areas in southern England & more generally in the west had little lying snow, for much of the country, there was continuous SNOW cover from the last third of January until roughly mid-March & the greater part of the UK had some form of snow cover continuously from 27th January to the 13th March. Level snow depths exceeded 2ft (circa 60cm) and there was much drifting. Much dislocation (railways particularly badly affected - a vital part of the infrastructure at this time)

Edited December 18, 2012 by Jason T

[Jason T]

Many Thanks peeps for the Birthday Wishes. Crazy really being this close to Christmas it normally gets over looked as obviously the older you get the less you expect. Had a blinding surprise when i got in, Everyone surprised me from a burst out of the dinning room door. Cra pp ed myself lol. Perfect end to the day.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Jason T

[lottiekent]

Many Thanks peeps for the Birthday Wishes. Crazy really being this close to Christmas it normally gets over looked as obviously the older you get the less you expect. Had a blinding surprise when i got in, Everyone surprised me from a burst out of the dinning room door. Cra pp ed myself lol. Perfect end to the day.

Happy Birthday!!

[shotski]

Many Thanks peeps for the Birthday Wishes. Crazy really being this close to Christmas it normally gets over looked as obviously the older you get the less you expect. Had a blinding surprise when i got in, Everyone surprised me from a burst out of the dinning room door. Cra pp ed myself lol. Perfect end to the day.

Yeh, Happy Birthday Jason

39 again Lets see what the weather gods can come up with ?

[john pike]

Happy birthday jason

[Summer of 76]

Happy Birthday too, not long to mine and understand how it gets lost at Xmas.

[Bluebreezer54]

Happy Birthday Jason. Know what you mean about having a birthday near Christmas !

[snowbob]

Happy birthday Jason

Know what you mean mate just celebrated my birthday on sun

Amidst Xmas songs and such

[Jason T]

Thanks all once again. Should not have gone in the Model thread its like like a load of ants running about after you have lifted a lump of wood. Have not a clue where to go.

[john pike]

fax charts

gonna do south east and south west tonight

tomorrow

south east dry am heavy rain due afernoon

southerly flow

not windy temps around 8 degrees

south west

moderate rain from mid morning

winds south westerly 8-10 degrees

south east

moderate rain

winds south-south westerly

could turn breezy early morning

south west

moderate rain

then early in the morning heavy rain passing through

light south westerly wind

thursday

south east

heavy rain on an of throughout the day

light south westerly wind

10 degrees

south west

heavy rain clearing in the morning

showers on and off throughout the day although not too heavy

light westerly wind

not cold 12 degrees

thursday night

south east

hopefully dry and light westerly winds

4-5 degrees

south west

hope fully staying dry overnight

light westerly winds

4-5 degrees

friday

south east

looks dry

light southerly flow

south west

hopefully stays dry

light westerly flow

there is low pressure close by so could change this forecast should it move north

saturday

starts dry in the south east

heavy rain on the way for the afternoon

light southerly flow

not cold

south west

rain in the morning being brought in by a stiff westerly wind

potentailfor this rain to be persistant throughout the day

sunday

heavy rain in the south east

clearing late afternoon

light southerly flow

thunder poss

south west

heavy rain am

clearing in the afternoon

becoming breezy on a sw flow

[john pike]

right back to south east only

fax for sunday 23rd

we are under 546 dam air so will feel quite warm

cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two

note the high pressure to our north east

it is in touching distance of the east of the uk

a 1032 high is gonna take some stopping

1 more frame and we will either be in the block or

the low pressure to our nw will take over

this is what you call a tug of war

tomorrows fax will be fascinating

[Mesoscale]

I have a feeling the atlantic will win out yet again unfortunatley.

[john pike]

I have a feeling the atlantic will win out yet again unfortunatley.

think i will wait for tomorrow night

the fax is quite different to the other models