Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 12th Dec

[cold snap]

Strange ,well maybe not so strange as soon as we lost pressure over Russia we got some sort of toppler now I know it's out in the realms of fantasy

Good riddance Russian high we have had enough

Edited December 12, 2012 by cold snap

[Panayiotis]

My optimism rating has now rocketed from 5 to the dizzy heights of 5.125/10 !

Before we throw in the towel for the Xmas period we should remember that at least the PV might be on the move, it could still all end in tears but at least this might kick some life into the pattern.

Mine is 5.684734657574847585595857565! lol Edited December 12, 2012 by panayiotis

[TEITS]

Strange ,well maybe not so strange as soon as we lost pressure over Russia we got some sort of toppler now I know it's out in the realms of fantasy

Good riddance Russian high we have enough

I must admit im notorious for wanting to see an E,ly via blocking over Scandi/Siberia but even im beginning to think I would prefer to see a GH. When you think back to the model output during Dec 2009/2010 we might have had a few ups and downs but nowhere near the trauma of recent days. Actually thinking about it Dec 2009 was consistently modelled from F.I and apart from a dodgy 24hr spell the rest of the output was consistent.

[karyo]

Strange ,well maybe not so strange as soon as we lost pressure over Russia we got some sort of toppler now I know it's out in the realms of fantasy

Good riddance Russian high we have had enough

Yes, the Russian high is doing us no favours!

We need it to disappear as soon as possible!

Karyo

[nick sussex]

Yes I'd like to echo Cold Snaps sentiments, good riddance to bad rubbish! re the Russian high its tried and failed once again and as expected just looked good on the charts but delivered zero.

We can just hope the PV decides not to set up over Greenland, we might get lucky and it sets up to the east, or splits.

But at this point I think its worth taking the chance.

[Nick F]

Well, you know when we could be under the Atlantic westerlies for the long haul when even the 18z op can't muster anything remotely interesting cold-wise until the very end of the run.

[cold snap]

We all know Greenland high is the daddy ,the Russia high don't come close

To be perfectly honest I wish I could throw darts at the Russia high , I think if it was a living object it would be getting some stick of me

Edited December 12, 2012 by cold snap

[Buzz]

Christmas day on the beach in heavy rain then, not too unlike the Aussies but with added rain, instead of sun.

http://modeles.meteo...fs-9-300.png?18

It can of course all change as that is the nature of FI. RIP Winter 2012

Straw clutching will continue......

Given the extremely variable nature of the output of late, are you sure that it's wise to declare "Winter 2012 is over" based on one run from one model that is showing a predicted output that is still nearly two weeks in the future?

[OldMetMan]

Strange ,well maybe not so strange as soon as we lost pressure over Russia we got some sort of toppler now I know it's out in the realms of fantasy

Good riddance Russian high we have had enough

Yet at the beginning of February this year, it delivered the goods, from more or less the same location. You never know!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Given the extremely variable nature of the output of late, are you sure that it's wise to declare "Winter 2012 is over" based on one run from one model that is showing a predicted output that is still nearly two weeks in the future?

I personally thought winter 2012 ended on the 29th February 2012 but I guess some people define things differently. Anyway, I wouldn't even say we're out of it for the entirety of the month, even with the relatively poor pattern we could still see some temporary cold intrusions for at least northern parts. The vortex shift is the key for the final few days of the month really: if we see energy coming into Greenland it will scupper our chances but if not we could start to see a Scandi trough type setup with heights rising to the west. All speculative at the moment of course but then, with 18 days left of December, nothing is certain.

[Ian Brown]

Yet at the beginning of February this year, it delivered the goods, from more or less the same location. You never know!

For Western areas it didn't OMM.

[Martin R]

18Z has been to the pub ..OR is it the time for Paul to send out invites for xmas BBQ at his place ?

[sundog]

We all know Greenland high is the daddy ,the Russia high don't come close

To be perfectly honest I wish I could throw darts at the Russia high , I think if it was a living object it would be getting some stick of me

Its mad though how last week the Russian high was a hero and this week its become the villan lol. I agree with your sentiment though.

[OldMetMan]

For Western areas it didn't OMM.

True, it didn't actually provide much weather other than the cold, but it shows it can extend to our shores even from that position - sometimes!

[TEITS]

Yet at the beginning of February this year, it delivered the goods, from more or less the same location. You never know!

Problem is we have seen so many failed E,lys in recent times that it makes you think it isn't a coincidence and that something unknown is preventing this. The classic E,lys that I remember in the 1980s, 1991 seem a distant memory now.

Just spotted some interesting in the ensembles at +120!!

Shall explain in 10mins.

[SnowObsessor90]

Strange ,well maybe not so strange as soon as we lost pressure over Russia we got some sort of toppler now I know it's out in the realms of fantasy

I'm at the point now where I'd gladly take that sort of set up. We managed get snow out of it IMBY last December even with the overall pattern being otherwise unfavourable.

[Panayiotis]

Just spotted some interesting in the ensembles at +120!!

Shall explain in 10mins.

Ooo i cant wait!(Hopefully its good news) Edited December 12, 2012 by panayiotis

[jethro]

The models are the real villains of the piece. A lot of money for absolute crap. In fact the people that run these things should offer a public apology. I'd rather they just reflect reality and churn at dull dreary winter westerly's than the outlandish nonsense they've thrown up thus far. It's getting my hopes up that cheese me off. The Russian High does what it does , its the models that that promises on its behalf. God I hate them and the idiots that run them; they should all be given their marching orders.

They do reflect reality in as much as they're pretty good 2 - 3 days out. Any further than say 5 days away and they're really just playing with options of what may happen, based on the information ascertained from the collected data. The problems arise when people take them as absolute gospel and expect them to accurately pinpoint weather 2 - 3 weeks away. What's needed is an understanding and acceptance that they don't produce the weather, that anything more than a few days away can and will change, and that we live on a tiny island in the middle of vast oceans of water and a maritime climate. Getting real, intense cold to these shores has always been hit and miss, it will always be hit and miss, sometimes we get lucky, sometimes we don't - no amount of computer models or apologies will change that.

[Matty M]

For us desperado's... a route to cold as i alluded to earlier.

If we can get enough amplification around T120hrs with that deep low southwest of Iceland advecting WA we could get a stroke to develop a high just to our north before the jet rolls through again (apologies for poor description!).

[TEITS]

Very odd because at +120 quiet a few ensembles are showing a change as I shall explain.

Seems a number of ensembles are keen to send this LP SE at this timeframe.

At the same time the LP in the Atlantic is being held W compared to recent runs. The end result is this chart at +168.

Member 19 shows this!

So it isn't just distant F.I that has changed on the 18Z but the period between +120 onwards. Now I realise this is the 18Z and im using the ensembles but its food for thought into tomorrow.

[Panayiotis]

For us desperado's... a route to cold as i alluded to earlier.

If we can get enough amplification around T120hrs with that deep low southwest of Iceland advecting WA we could get a stroke to develop a high just to our north before the jet rolls through again (apologies for poor description!).

This is exactly what Ive been trying to say in the last couple of days, few tweaks here and there and we could be game. So far its a waiting game.Excuse the pun!

[OldMetMan]

Problem is we have seen so many failed E,lys in recent times that it makes you think it isn't a coincidence and that something unknown is preventing this. The classic E,lys that I remember in the 1980s, 1991 seem a distant memory now.

Just spotted some interesting in the ensembles at +120!!

Shall explain in 10mins.

I agree, they are conspicuous by their absence. Got to be a reason - something to do with lack of certain types of upper air blocking.

[Mark Neal.]

Very odd because at +120 quiet a few ensembles are showing a change as I shall explain.

Seems a number of ensembles are keen to send this LP SE at this timeframe.

At the same time the LP in the Atlantic is being held W compared to recent runs. The end result is this chart at +168.

Member 19 shows this!

So it isn't just distant F.I that has changed on the 18Z but the period between +120 onwards. Now I realise this is the 18Z and im using the ensembles but its food for thought into tomorrow.

Well spotted. Definately something to keep an eye on in future runs. Looks like turning less cold ( better than the term mild for coldies) for the week before Xmas. Thereafter though there is a lot more scope for change. With a potential and ever likely SSW to come, January is something we should be starting to look for I believe in seeing the rewards further down the line.

[TEITS]

Member 12 wants to give us a channel LP bringing a blizzard.

Overall the ensembles do show a mild, zonal outlook but I have also seen the potential for brief cold snaps in the run up to xmas as illustrated by some of the ensembles I have posted. If I was honest everything but the kitchen sink is shown by +192!

[Matty M]

Schematic of outside hope for quick cold.

Anything to avoid studying the Kohler Curve, Blackbodies or the clausius-clapeyron relation!!

Edited December 12, 2012 by Matty M