Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 12th Dec

[TEITS]

Im surprised nobody has commented on what happens around +120 on the 06Z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

Not far off what I was suggesting last night on some of the GEFS ensembles.

Does seem to be a trend to back that LP further W. However for the block to come into play we need energy going SE. This is very much an outsider but I wouldn't totally dismiss an E,ly developing out of nowhere at +144 over the next few days.

[Shunter]

It may well be turning unsettled but it's not going to be paticulary mild across the majority of the UK and in strong winds it will feel pretty chilly one suspects.

It could be worse :-)

And look to the East in those charts.....cold is pushing west again !

[MKN]

Im surprised nobody has commented on what happens around +120 on the 06Z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

Not far off what I was suggesting last night on some of the GEFS ensembles.

Does seem to be a trend to back that LP further W. However for the block to come into play we need energy going SE. This is very much an outsider but I wouldn't totally dismiss an E,ly developing out of nowhere at +144 over the next few days.

We had the same opportunity this week so don't think we can hold out much hope for that

[Cal]

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-186.png?6

Intersting development in the latter part of the hi-res 06 GFS is there some energy finally heading s/e?

[Matty M]

Im surprised nobody has commented on what happens around +120 on the 06Z.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1321.png

Not far off what I was suggesting last night on some of the GEFS ensembles.

Does seem to be a trend to back that LP further W. However for the block to come into play we need energy going SE. This is very much an outsider but I wouldn't totally dismiss an E,ly developing out of nowhere at +144 over the next few days.

I admire your optimism and do see it but it must be a 1% shot.

However the overall model output is poor and the ECM EPS dire.

[TEITS]

Well its happening!!

[ICETAB]

Im surprised nobody has commented on what happens around +120 on the 06Z.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1321.png

Not far off what I was suggesting last night on some of the GEFS ensembles.

Does seem to be a trend to back that LP further W. However for the block to come into play we need energy going SE. This is very much an outsider but I wouldn't totally dismiss an E,ly developing out of nowhere at +144 over the next few days.

Im surprised nobody has commented on what happens around +120 on the 06Z.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1321.png

Not far off what I was suggesting last night on some of the GEFS ensembles.

Does seem to be a trend to back that LP further W. However for the block to come into play we need energy going SE. This is very much an outsider but I wouldn't totally dismiss an E,ly developing out of nowhere at +144 over the next few days.

I've just been looking at the same thing. It wouldn't take much of a change to get an Eastley from T120 on the GFS. ECM looks similar although not as good.

[Pixel]

Well its happening!!

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-216.png?6

yay !! lets play another round of chase the easterly - really enjoyed it last time

[Hodgheg]

Here we go again then!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Well its happening!!

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-216.png?6

Oh no not more tears and tantrums LOL

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Im surprised nobody has commented on what happens around +120 on the 06Z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

Not far off what I was suggesting last night on some of the GEFS ensembles.

Does seem to be a trend to back that LP further W. However for the block to come into play we need energy going SE. This is very much an outsider but I wouldn't totally dismiss an E,ly developing out of nowhere at +144 over the next few days.

I agree I noticed the low push southeast allowing an opportunity of an undercut, the next system comes running over then but I feel there's some room for development in the timeframe you mentioned.

[TEITS]

Might of been a brief E,ly but at least its a different output compared to some of the rubbish we have seen lately.

Rather disappointed with how view the output so black and white. What we see on the 06Z has been hinted at a few times especially on last nights 18Z. Remember E,lys can disappear very quickly but they can also appear just as quickly!!

This is why I was surprised nobody commented on the +120 charts because you only had to use a bit of instinct to see this was possible.

[MKN]

Well its happening!!

We need to see heights develop around the Iceland area for anything meaningful otherwise the Atlantic would do as the 06z shows and just bowl it out the way.

[TEITS]

We need to see heights develop around the Iceland area for anything meaningful otherwise the Atlantic would do as the 06z shows and just bowl it out the way.

Like I said a few days ago if we are to see a change in the model output towards a cold spell that its only likely to be a short affair. A few days of cold E,lys with potential snow showers is better than a kick in the teeth.

[Katiewombat]

[font=helvet

ica, arial, sans-serif]I totally agree with you Katie.....Christmas Day is at +270 hrs, since when has anyone accepted that as gospel..??

No one, well not in the winters that I have watched this thread. Well unless it shows what you desired weather type is.

I honestly expect the models to do a complete u turn and thats not IF but WHEN. Just watching out the window

tells you that deep cold like this is not just going to go on vacation for weeks and months.

Will be reading with interest. Incidentally I speak from a can't read the models POV

Katie

Edited December 13, 2012 by Katie Court

[minus 9]

Not another phantom easterly.......... On the gfs o6. The undercut could happen. But then it probably wont.

[bluearmy]

My 'long shot' vortex journey still remains a possibility 24 hours later. also, i would caution strongly against close inpection of gfs op output post T192. the interactions are complex at that point in time and the sudden resolution change is unlikely to cope too well with it. would be interesting to see if the control looks the same at T192 as that runs at a slightly higher res through fi than the op. will it sustain the 'blocking' to our north better than the op does ???

[chris55]

The 6z is the perfect example of how all the posts writing off the rest of December are just silly. I'm not saying this is what will unfold just that the weather is not as straight forward as some GFS runs out to 384 might look!!

ECM ens also have a scatter of members dipping around this time, have not looked at the postage stamps but maybe they are along the same lines?

Edited December 13, 2012 by chris55

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z has sprung a surprise for coldies, albeit in FI but at least it's worth talking about, the cold block to the northeast finds a way of visiting the uk again with a risk of snow and a return of widespread frosts, it doesn't last long as the atlantic becomes very active again but also during the christmas period shows some interest with a southerly tracking jet and some polar maritime incursions at times. It's runs like the 6z which will spark some interest for coldies and a pleasant change from the mild 00z run.

The most interesting feature of the 6z is an almost carbon copy repeat of tomorrows weather next week, an upper ridge extends southwest from the cold block and a low moving in from the southwest, strengthening SSEly winds and heavy rain moving north and east with snow for northern hills and mountains, deja-vu.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The GFS ensembles were showing a cold spell between 21st and xmas earlier in the week, then it disappeared, it COULD be that GFS is back on with a cold spell around xmas time?? - it give us something to talk about anyway

Edited December 13, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Matty M]

Are there any statistics on the 6z and 18z being more amplified than the 0z and 12z?

[Shunter]

The GFS ensembles were showing a cold spell between 21st and xmas earlier in the week, then it disappeared, it COULD be that GFS is back on with a cold spell around xmas time?? - it give us something to talk about anyway

Lets see if it gives us any ensemble support in an hour !

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting run the 06z, chucks the kitchen sink at us. Also it has Dec 46 sort of profile...

BFTP

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Lets see if it gives us any ensemble support in an hour !

Probably will be a outlier

[TEITS]

Another way of viewing the 06Z is this.

Obviously the 06Z is quiet different opposed to other model runs. Now lets assume the opposite was showing and that all previous model output was showing a cold spell and then along came todays 06Z with a completely different output. Everyone would be in panic mode and the posts on this thread would say "Has the 06Z picked up a new trend", or "its going to be interesting viewing the 12Zs".

Never assume all cold spells downgrade and all mild spells verify because that is a flawed argument. These models don't have a mild or cold bias. so lets judge the output on its own merits. I shall be curious to view the ensembles.