Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

[phil nw.]

A new thread ready for the 12z models then.

Just a recap on the different model threads.

The winter / cold model output discussion thread (this one) - busy, fast moving, sometimes a bit of a rollercoaster, generally cold orientated, with views from a wide range of people with differing interests, biases and levels of knowledge.

In depth model discussion, analysis and summaries - slower moving, sometimes more technical, straight down the line type model analysis, info and discussion:

http://forum.netweat...-and-summaries/

Model mayhem - all the emotion from looking at the models, rants, ramps etc

http://forum.netweat...n-ramp-go-nuts/

Some interest in the next few days as the Atlantic lows come against the cold block further east.

Will we get the undercut of energy to bring some of that cold this way or will have to wait a while for a return of lower temperatures?

As ever please keep it polite and use the relevant threads-continue here.

[phil nw.]

The area of interest showed around T120-144hrs on the 00z ECM where the trough starts to disrupt as it slows just to our west.

signs of undercutting but in the end the Atlantic won-let`s see what the 12Z`s do.

[Rocheydub]

The curse of the shortwave east of Greenland...

[phil nw.]

The UK right in between the Mild to the south west and cold to the north east.

The interesting period coming now.

[Matty M]

Well it looks superior to the 6z with the Jet further south over the Atlantic, the low better orientated with bigger push of heights to our north and Russian HP ridging further west.

[Jonan92]

More energy is directed towards Greenland in this run

[phil nw.]

At T120hrs.the low is having a battle sending those fronts north east as a surface high tries to build over S. Norway.

[Matty M]

Low over Atlantic will rapidly fill in next few frames as it catches up with upper trough.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1321.png

[Rocheydub]

It's all very messy, and very different to the 6z. Nearly have FI at T96 on these 2 runs. Still possibilities here, just not that confident. Anyway, what appens from here on is into FI, so very unlikely.

[The Eagle]

Some changes on the UKMO at 120hrs

Not great but better.

[Matty M]

UKM playing catch up as usual of late.

Not rating it much at the moment.

[phil nw.]

By T138hrs the milder push just wins through.The Russian high still very much in evidence in next weeks modelling though and it wouldn`t take much adjustment in the pattern to bring the cold this way.

Still time for changes in such a finely balanced setup.

[Methuselah]

UKM playing catch up as usual of late.

Not rating it much at the moment.

'Catch up' to what, exactly?

[Matty M]

Looks good for early FI as the second low exiting US should provide enough Amplification to bring in the cold.

[MR EXTREMES]

i wonder in this chart does the other low pressure moving out of the states prop or help push the main low east or does it not work this way?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

[Matty M]

'Catch up' to what, exactly?

Compare it to its run last night, it is pushing Atlantic energy too far east.

[phil nw.]

Some changes on the UKMO at 120hrs

Not great but better.

Yes by T120hrs UKMO more bullish in pushing the trough east towards the UK so T96hrs is as far as we could see similarities with the 2 models.

[Matty M]

Not the most positive GFS for our pre Christmas surprise but there is still lots of toying with the Atlantic LP next week which will have huge knock on effects.

[Methuselah]

Compare it to its run last night, it is pushing Atlantic energy too far east.

Yeah? But 'too far east' compared to what?

[The Northern Ramper]

I think the main point of interest tonight is to compare the ECM at t96 compared to its 12z run last night at t120.

[AWD]

Your a rollercoaster all by yourself Matty!

[MR EXTREMES]

t168 here comes the azores anychance of a link up maybe?

[Liam J]

t168 here comes the azores anychance of a link up maybe?

Did somebody order a blowtorch!!

[Panayiotis]

t168 here comes the azores anychance of a link up maybe?

Nope here comes the zonal train!

[Matty M]

Missing is the potential secondary low which was progged last night which would act as a cut off.

Also problematic on the 12z is the faster movement of the Low exiting NE US around T144hrs, this leaves no window for us.

However the 12z GFS is often too progressive with its output.