Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

[nick sussex]

Looks like another horror show from the GFS, unless theres some dramatic twist.

It all started going pear shaped as the GFS took the shortwave on a fishing expedition to Greenland then this has a knock on effect on the angle of the approaching low as this phases with the trawler shortwave!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Ok , sorry folks for the nitpicking , moving on . . .

[cold snap]

Looks like another horror show from the GFS, unless theres some dramatic twist.

It all started going pear shaped as the GFS took the shortwave on a fishing expedition to Greenland then this has a knock on effect on the angle of the approaching low as this phases with the trawler shortwave!

This is going as I expected not messing around from gfs this time

Get the low pressures in and get them from a to b as if the block doesn't even exist

[on the coast]

Amazing to look a chart at 138 with the jet going south and we are no where near any cold.

[Panayiotis]

hope you don't mind me asking this question, i am not very good at this weather models etc but from a laymans view,why bother with these Models,they change every 12 hrs and everyone gets upset ha ha, few weeks ago lots of people where saying freezing temps tons of snow then days later rain and wind and now rain and wind again but yest it was going to go cold. why try and sort what cant be sorted,maybe im wrong but could someone who knows the answer help me out as I am hopless at this weather malarkey thanks

That's the weather for you! We look at the models to try and estimate when the next cold/warm spell will occur and look at the trends, yes the cold spell this week wasn't a snowy one but the trend overall was for it to get colder and the models were right about this.

[Jason T]

Blimey be able to mow the lawn in those temps.

[J10]

I think we should club together to pay for all expenses paid trip for the Siberian High to move to Greenland, Otherwise this feature could waste a few weeks.

Not saying it will, but it certainly has he potential to and It has done so before.

[nick sussex]

As much as I'm rather underwhelmed by tonights model output IMO the GFS 18hrs has gone off the rails with its view of the shortwave.

No other model backs its attempt to do that and this has a large knock on effect on the pattern, even if it pulls out something interesting I could care less, its cat litter and has been all week with large continuity issues upstream and now its latest descent into the twilight zone.

[If Wishes made Weather]

At 150hrs the Azores high seems to be nosing less far north allowing the low pressure area off Newfoundland to remain in a more southerly area - the 12z had this shooting off up to Greenland.

[fergieweather]

oh stop getting on CrewColds back, hes only saying what the bloody GFS says.

anyhow, to be more helpful, and what this thread is all about;

To Jason T:

the ECM can be quite 'basic' in missing shortwaves and more 'micro' variations.#

Whoo..... I so WISH I could show you the full, amazingly 'micro-variation' replete suite of EC products!!! You'd retract that view instantly!!! :-)

[Panayiotis]

Back to weather discussion as you can at 150hrs in the 12z the low was further North and west however in the 18z the low has moved south therefore we get much better amplification in the jet, the third low I circled is the one i'm interested in!

Edited December 14, 2012 by panayiotis

[Paul T]

hope you don't mind me asking this question, i am not very good at this weather models etc but from a laymans view,why bother with these Models,they change every 12 hrs and everyone gets upset ha ha, few weeks ago lots of people where saying freezing temps tons of snow then days later rain and wind and now rain and wind again but yest it was going to go cold. why try and sort what cant be sorted,maybe im wrong but could someone who knows the answer help me out as I am hopless at this weather malarkey thanks

I think the key here is that you say 'why try and sort what cant be sorted'.

Now, we dont try to sort things, we discuss the potential.

The weather models are depicting potential events that could occur in the future; is poker or roulette not a fantastically popular game?!

From my perspective, its a great way to talk and discuss likely outcomes.

Not even the most sophisticated models can predict the next 7 days. I personnally want it to stay that way, ironic isnt it?!

[MKN]

Blimey be able to mow the lawn in those temps.

Imo if its not gonna be cold & snowy, Then v mild is next best at least I can save a few quid on the heating bill instead.

[cold snap]

The weather is moving from west to east and over gulf waters normal uk flow , no surprises

The 18z is a exact idea of the above statement

C'mon gfs give us a break throw a decent shortwave in , terrible so far

Edited December 14, 2012 by cold snap

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Imo if its not gonna be cold & snowy, Then v mild is next best at least I can save a few quid on the heating bill instead.

If its not cold and snowy lets have it dry, 18Z azores high moves our way, relief from those flooded areas

[Duane S.]

Back to weather discussion as you can at 150hrs in the 12z the low was further North and west however in the 18z the low has moved south therefore we get much better amplification in the jet, the third low I circled is the one i'm interested in!

Agreed, much better IMO at +168

[Glacier Point]

It says absolutely nothing, chiono is posting 10 times a day what does that tell you??

Although I'm not sure I feel the reason why GPs not around is because he is being patient to see how things pan out , people were saying winters over before the cold spell had even ended and now there is a possibility of cold coming back in 7 days, so it would be premature of him to come in this thred and face an onslaught from people panicking on a forecast he made, judge after the winter not 14 days into it, it's a joke the way people reacted in hear it was like having a conversation with a very hormonal 13 year old.

.. still around, and yes, patience a virtue, or at least allows for some cool, level headed analysis.

The final half / third of the month was always in my book least likely to have a broader scale interest (tropospherically) as we enter a low angular momentum base state for the time being as the initial wave flux generated in late October and November ebbed away. I'll try and post up some time some analysis on last weeks shanaligans - and a possible link to solar activity spurt at the end of November.

Interestingly, angular momentum likely to just nudge back up (but not excessively so) in the next few days which lends support for the ECM op type scenario of modest height rises centred around Iceland - so the potential for some colder incursions to the northern half of the UK as per UKMET extended and if we get enough ampliifcation some link up with the Russian High but odds definately favour a more cyclonic type pattern.

The broad scale indices over the polar field remain negative, so over the longer term, we still have the dice slightly loaded into cold's favour overall.

Edited December 14, 2012 by Glacier Point

[welshwizard]

I think the key here is that you say 'why try and sort what cant be sorted'.

Now, we dont try to sort things, we discuss the potential.

The weather models are depicting potential events that could occur in the future; is poker or roulette not a fantastically popular game?!

From my perspective, its a great way to talk and discuss likely outcomes.

Not even the most sophisticated models can predict the next 7 days. I personnally want it to stay that way, ironic isnt it?!

thanks for the reply, im glad I cant read and understand as much as you guys as it would fry my head, well done all see you in the spring ha ha.

[John Badrick]

One word DEFAULT!!!!UK default is rain, wind and 10 degrees. We must hit default in between proper winter weather. We are in default at the moment but it won't last.

[cold snap]

I've seen enough one way traffic I'm afraid nothing remotely cold

Edited December 14, 2012 by cold snap

[Snowman31]

Hi GP, when do you think we will start seeing a pattern change, hopefully for colder conditions? early jan? mid jan?

[swfc]

Pretty run of the mill uk west to east flow with the Azores high pushing north.it is what it is however diabolical.if anyone can give me a positive on that run ill be astounded!!

[TEITS]

Few models that I don't think have been posted.

BOM

JMA

No disrespect but after reading Fergie's post I really couldn't careless what the Met O are saying. The combination of all todays output and the disagreement shown means nobody has the foggiest how this will pan out.

[Panayiotis]

In this chart we have winds coming from North Africa, ill be sun batheing on Barry Island if that comes off! http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121214/18/192/h500slp.png

[Liam J]

Some of the worst looking winter charts imaginable being churned out on the last few GFS runs, christ I hope they get dropped very soon! Late 90's revival atm.....