Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

[Duane S.]

Also I'd go as far to say that 'sad' is rather more epitomised by the willingness of people to let their bias in weather preferences cloud their analytical capabilities (that's provided they have any in the first place!)

Posting a couple of poor op runs in FI hardly classes as 'analysis' though does it?

[Frosty.]

so lets hope thats a sign for the GFS to get back into festive mode.

I think the 18z will deliver

we are overdue a cold gfs run

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Ha, nothing like choosing a chart that the day before looks so similar to the one that you are trying to portray as grim that it makes the point that you are trying to make fall flat on its face!!!

Dec 28th 2000

ECM T+216

The only difference being is that the ECM T+216 has more amplification and therefore could be described as better.

Very very funny!

Edit - that is before we point out that you are comparing FI charts!

Point made

[bluearmy]

I'll take the dec 2000 chart with its much lower thicknesses.

[Jason T]

Evening everyone,before the 18z, Just thought i would ask a few question's that hopefully i can get some answers to. (1)What would be classed as a reliable time frame during Winter period. (2) Which Model out of the big 3 is best regarded for its reliability.(3) Do all 3 have to agree for a true outcome.(4) Where can FI begin. (5) What is the longest time scale out to look for acceptable trends T144+-T200+-T300+. (6) Do any models favour a certain type of pattern,ie Mild or Cold.

Thank you.

Jason.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ha, nothing like choosing a chart that the day before looks so similar to the one that you are trying to portray as grim that it makes the point that you are trying to make fall flat on its face!!!

Dec 28th 2000

ECM T+216

The only difference being is that the ECM T+216 has more amplification and therefore could be described as better.

Very very funny!

Edit - that is before we point out that you are comparing FI charts!

They might look similar Chiono but the two charts couldn't be any more dissimilar as to the weather 'on the ground'. This is cemented by the progression between 216-240 hrs ECM 12z.

Personally I'm looking forward to the New Year in terms of potential. I would suggest the probability of a severe spell of weather in January is quite elevated given the stratospheric signals at present.......RAMP

[SouthPennine88]

The thing is no amount of positivity or wishful thinking will change the situation. The weather isn't sentient. Take a far more realistic approach (expect nothing) and you won't end up crushed time and time again when things (almost inevitably) go wrong!

I've learned the hard way over the years!

I don't like wishful thinking and share your view, but to be honest, no comments tonight have consisted of wishful thinking.

I think those members who have put forward the idea of perhaps cooler weather returning in around a weeks time have been very clear on the fact they are hugely uncertain and by no means are the models (certainly the op's) have shown a huge commitment to cold.

All we have done so far in terms of talking about cold is picked out bits and pieces that would otherwise indicate we are in for a perhaps slightly cooler conditions in the timeframe, none of us have really said a notable cold period is arriving.

[pipsta]

If we looked back on the models from a "what verified" pov From my own imby experience over in the east (EA) the current weather seems to have gone in two week cycles of late. Every other week there has been a two or three day cold snap proceeded by a "mild ish" week and a half. Each cold spell has gotten progressively sharper. This started on december 1st with a light dusting in Norwich. Can somebody who knows how to read the models look back over the models from the last fortnight to see if this cycle I have observed is on to something because I bet my bottom dollar we will see other cold few days hit around 28th 29th December if this continues. If you put out of your mind what the models have been showing but instead look at what has verified. I think our weather is currently in a two week cycle which is increasing by a couple of days every other week and each subsequent cold spell lasting slightly longer and harder than the last. Based on this I'm saying 28th onwards for our next shot.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

He's negative because the output for cold is around a 2/10 mark at the moment. The ENS, the teleconnections and all bar 1 or 2 ECM frames at a long distance out show absolute Atlantic and LP dominated conditions.

I'm willing to bet I want an outcome similar to most In this thread, but some of the straw clutching is unreal over the last couple of days. It feels like people are searching the 'chart stack' for a cold needle.

Bar Nick, are any of the major collies contributing to this thread? That alone, tells you enough.

It says absolutely nothing, chiono is posting 10 times a day what does that tell you??

Although I'm not sure I feel the reason why GPs not around is because he is being patient to see how things pan out , people were saying winters over before the cold spell had even ended and now there is a possibility of cold coming back in 7 days, so it would be premature of him to come in this thred and face an onslaught from people panicking on a forecast he made, judge after the winter not 14 days into it, it's a joke the way people reacted in hear it was like having a conversation with a very hormonal 13 year old.

[BARRY]

The thing is no amount of positivity or wishful thinking will change the situation. The weather isn't sentient. Take a far more realistic approach (expect nothing) and you won't end up crushed time and time again when things (almost inevitably) go wrong!

I've learned the hard way over the years!

But things don't go wrong they go weather and the models are that, only models they output is right only up to 48hr anything after that is pure conjecture

[fergieweather]

Sorry mate I'm not saying anything to wind anyone up. I've summarised what the models are showing in a couple of sentences. No different to Gibby (Martin) and his diagnosis of today's models (which was an equally grim read into FI). If it makes it easier for you to think I'm on the wind up then crack on. Though guessing you haven't been on the forum as long as some people who will quite happily testify that I don't look for a reaction......I say things as I see them.

Also I'd go as far to say that 'sad' is rather more epitomised by the willingness of people to let their bias in weather preferences cloud their analytical capabilities (that's provided they have any in the first place!)

I'd better warn the folks at Ops Centre that they're also winding people up.... as they wholly concur with your (and Gibby's) analysis. Anyway: still a time to go.

[mulzy]

Disappointing (from a coldie's point of view) models this evening - no amount of spin can change that fact.

The extended 12z ECM De Bilt ensembles are significantly milder than the equivalent set from this morning.

Edited December 14, 2012 by mulzy

[Snowman.]

Binning that 12z run gets rid of my Arctic high that I have been looking for every single run.

Really hope that this doesn't continue.

[chris55]

Crewe cold,

Your points are fine mate, post what your thinking with regards to the models. My only gripe is these sort of comments,

For the life of me I cannot understand why there seems so much straw clutching RE weather for the rest of this month.

Also I'd go as far to say that 'sad' is rather more epitomised by the willingness of people to let their bias in weather preferences cloud their analytical capabilities

There is simply no need to judge what others may be looking for in the models, how they are interpreting the charts or what they think the possible outcome could be. Stick to analysing the models and don't direct your posts towards others who may see and be looking for different things than yourself.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'd better warn the folks at Ops Centre that they're also winding people up.... as they wholly concur with your (and Gibby's) analysis. Anyway: still a time to go.

Thank you Ian!

An expert (professional) who agrees with my assessment.

[Staffordshire]

Evening everyone,before the 18z, Just thought i would ask a few question's that hopefully i can get some answers to. (1)What would be classed as a reliable time frame during Winter period. (2) Which Model out of the big 3 is best regarded for its reliability.(3) Do all 3 have to agree for a true outcome.(4) Where can FI begin. (5) What is the longest time scale out to look for acceptable trends T144+-T200+-T300+. (6) Do any models favour a certain type of pattern,ie Mild or Cold.

Thank you.

Jason.

for fine details 4 days imho, patterns look further, atm id say JMA is doing well but out of the big 3, hmm id say ecm. 3, definately not, normally one chart picks up on something then after a day or so the others may well follow suit, 4, tricky one but probably 10days ish, 5, for tends any time really probably not 300+, and famously the GFS tends to throw out deep powerful lows (atlantic biased)

[Snowmad79]

I have to say, regardless of the differences in model output across the board, the longer ranged output do still show a Southerly or South Westerly type flow for the UK and probably why all the forecasters on TV this evening, for the Grenada area have made comments regarding the Xmas period along the lines of it being "mild and wet".

One forecaster even said "Hoping for a white Christmas ?, Think again, its looking wet and windy". I can understand where they get that assumption but "assumptions can be the mother of all.........)

It's too early at this point to make call in the longer range with all the chopping an changing and as we are all aware good winter synoptics can pounce on you from nowhere just as quick as they are taken away.

Let the mild or cold rampers have their say but "KEEP AND OPEN MIND". I mean, I'll laugh at dreadful output, though I will never dismiss any possibilities how ever slim they may be.

Must admit, the model output for the past week or so have been migraine material

Edited December 14, 2012 by Snowmad79

[Frosty.]

Thank you Ian!

An expert (professional) who agrees with my assessment.

yes until tomorrow when the models show different outcomes, even the experts don't know what the 00z's will be showing tomorrow.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Thank you Ian!

An expert (professional) who agrees with my assessment.

I'm not saying that you are wrong, I'm saying that you word things in a way that antagonises others. " let's see what the week after Xmas brings" to my mind weather it comes from you, the bbc , the meto , the queen , who ever , is very presumptuous after what happened recently and what recent models have been flirting with.

Things change very quickly , so do the beeb charts , and so does the meto unfortunately , but that's the weather and in the main even the pro's only follow what the charts show, albeit more charts available to them than what we see, that's not me having a dig that's me giving an honest assessment as you say.

Edited December 14, 2012 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[LomondSnowstorm]

He's negative because the output for cold is around a 2/10 mark at the moment. The ENS, the teleconnections and all bar 1 or 2 ECM frames at a long distance out show absolute Atlantic and LP dominated conditions.

I'm willing to bet I want an outcome similar to most In this thread, but some of the straw clutching is unreal over the last couple of days. It feels like people are searching the 'chart stack' for a cold needle.

Bar Nick, are any of the major collies contributing to this thread? That alone, tells you enough.

What on earth is a 'major collie/coldie'? I haven't seen any real difference in the standard of posts in the last few days than normal: some are a bit over optimistic on the cold, most though are fairly balanced and acknowledge the large probability chance that this won't work out for us. We must acknowledge though that there is a degree of uncertainty, not necessarily more than normal, for the period around Christmas and that there is at least a not statistically insignificant chance of a cold easterly flow for at least the north and east of the country. It is more than 10 days until Christmas after all, and as everyone should be very well aware anything at that range is open to a fairly large degree of error. Also, did the ECM 32 day control not favour something similar to the easterly type intrusion we've been flagging up as possible ?

Edited December 14, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[fergieweather]

PS UKMO analysis also talks of periodic rear-edge snow potential on some frontal incursions over next fortnight. Anyway: do bear in mind they have duty to produce these analyses twice a day and so it's an unenviable task responding to varied model runs when they may occur (e.g. 12z EC yesterday). Cheers, Ian

[Paul T]

oh stop getting on CrewColds back, hes only saying what the bloody GFS says.

anyhow, to be more helpful, and what this thread is all about;

To Jason T:

(1)What would be classed as a reliable time frame during Winter period.

for trends: 144hrs to 168hrs

for accuracy: 0-24hrs!

(2) Which Model out of the big 3 is best regarded for its reliability.

Very much down to individual Pref. I personnally favour the GFS. It may at times have a zonal (SWrly) bias, but it is a great trend identifier. The ECM is like the old wise man of the models; you should always listen to what its saying. Others, due to resolution, are more hit-and-miss (GEM/JMA), but now and again can come up trumps (1 in 10 perhaps). MO seems to always be niether here nor there, between the GFS and ECM.

(3) Do all 3 have to agree for a true outcome.

In general, this is a massive factor for a strong likelyhood of the synotics occuring. However (for example) on Dec 5th 2012, all said that by 14th Dec 2012, we would have a raging Easterly and be under sub zero temps. Tgis did not happen!

(4) Where can FI begin.

In general 120-144hrs

(5) What is the longest time scale out to look for acceptable trends T144+-T200+-T300+.

Its more about ensembles. the GFS runs +20 Runs with slightly differing bias, the ECM runs 50 i believe. these decide trends, not the T+whatever.

(6) Do any models favour a certain type of pattern,ie Mild or Cold.

In my view, not really. At times the GFS is overly zonal, especially +192hrs, and the ECM can be quite 'basic' in missing shortwaves and more 'micro' variations.#

Hope that makes sense, just celebrating becoming a qualified accountant by drinking wine and posting on a weather forum on a Friday night, with the missus asleep beside me. we work to hard there days! should be out on the tiles! lol

Edited December 14, 2012 by Paul T

[phil nw.]

Ok can we now get back to discussing the outputs rather than debating other members posting styles.

The 18Z out anytime soon.

[chionomaniac]

Is the 18Z running?

Right let's talk about that from now on,

Thanks.

[welshwizard]

hope you don't mind me asking this question, i am not very good at this weather models etc but from a laymans view,why bother with these Models,they change every 12 hrs and everyone gets upset ha ha, few weeks ago lots of people where saying freezing temps tons of snow then days later rain and wind and now rain and wind again but yest it was going to go cold. why try and sort what cant be sorted,maybe im wrong but could someone who knows the answer help me out as I am hopless at this weather malarkey thanks