Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO looks marginally better with the trough angle, but really not good enough either. I mean it's not awful, negatively tilted trough with a bit of disruption at +144, but hard to call it a great chart either.

Edited December 15, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Snowmad79]

My amateur take on the GFS 00z run.

There appears to be a solid trend now on the GFS for positive height anomalies over Europe and the Jet to flow east on a more northerly track. The Jet does loose some of its punch but there is still enough of a kick in it to feed LP in Atlantic which in turns helps to pull up warmer air NE through Europe positively tilting the the jet allowing a ridge of sorts to build into Europe.

Out to 192, and it's looking more Zonal with LP able to pass to our east with Hp remaining close to the south!. This is another run illustrative of how the decimation or displacement of PV doesn't always lead to favorable winter weather for the BI.

That said, the GFS does offer a small window of oppertunity in the form of a Mid Atlantic ridge extending up to Greenland but then flattens this out courtesy of a strengthening Jet.

(For newer members: To see the trend with regards to the northerly track of the Jet, Look at the run and scroll through 6hr - 60hrs. The jet is flowing at quite a southerly track heading through France and Spain into the med. Then scroll 120 - 192hr and the Jet is now flowing across the UK.) Not good imo.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5&carte=1

Edited December 15, 2012 by Snowmad79

[The Eagle]

Very good 00z GEM. Happy with that. I expect ECM will be similar.

Edited December 15, 2012 by The Eagle

[The Eagle]

ECM at 120 very different to UKMO and even more so GFS. Time to run on this yet.

[TEITS]

Pretty dreadful model runs this morning with the exception of GEM.

All seem to suggest a spell of mild SW,lys prior to xmas as we see a rise in pressure over Spain as Steve mentioned last night.

[cooling climate]

Sorry mate I'm not saying anything to wind anyone up. I've summarised what the models are showing in a couple of sentences. No different to Gibby (Martin) and his diagnosis of today's models (which was an equally grim read into FI). If it makes it easier for you to think I'm on the wind up then crack on. Though guessing you haven't been on the forum as long as some people who will quite happily testify that I don't look for a reaction......I say things as I see them.

Also I'd go as far to say that 'sad' is rather more epitomised by the willingness of people to let their bias in weather preferences cloud their analytical capabilities (that's provided they have any in the first place!)

Have to agree with what you say the charts, ens etc all pointing to a more zonal

set up and atlantic driven weather apart from the odd run and ens member.

This has been unanamously backed up by the models this morning. No signs of a

smashed vortex from what I can see in fact totally the oposite,so I would be

very wary of any such forcasts for the future.

This may be the model discussion chasing cold thread but it helps to have a bit

of realism in here as well. Well done.

[snow drift]

Nick said look west in our hunt for cold. "No I can't see any coming our way"

[bobbydog]

"

Exceptionally large areas of low pressure will also become problematic at times throughout this winter, bringing many parts of the country to a standstill from some very heavy falls of snow. Heavy snowfall and below-average temperatures are likely to result in lying snow on the ground for some quite lengthy periods of time across many parts of the country throughout this winter too (December to February). "

how ironic is that first sentence.......? heh heh

guess who.......

Edited December 15, 2012 by bobbydog

[mountain shadow]

Well, we can forget about an easterly this year and welcome in the Euro high.

The only crumb of comfort is that the pattern is mobile and both ECM and GFS hint at a northerly toppler for Christmas Day.

[Matty M]

Yep pre-christmas easterly chances now near 0

Very poor runs this morning. ughh

[Frosty.]

The latest models show an unsettled outlook with spells of wet and windy weather seperated by brighter, showery conditions, temps around average but with some mild days, pressure rising across europe and the jet tilting more sw/ne for a while but around christmas week there are good signs of colder weather on both the gfs and ecm, especially the gfs with a chance of a northerly, mainly for the north of the uk with a chance of a white christmas for scotland at least, even a possible reload a few days later and the jet does show signs of becoming more southerly tracking from around christmas week so it will be interesting to see if the milder phase can be replaced with a cooler/colder pattern by then, fingers crossed. Let's also remember the strat warming which should have a big impact on our weather during january, so hopefully good blocking potential by then with potent cold spells to look forward to in jan and feb.

Edited December 15, 2012 by Frosty039

[russell k]

The latest models show an unsettled outlook with spells of wet and windy weather seperated by brighter, showery conditions, temps around average but with some mild days, pressure rising across europe and the jet tilting more sw/ne for a while but around christmas week there are good signs of colder weather on both the gfs and ecm, especially the gfs with a chance of a northerly, mainly for the north of the uk with a chance of a white christmas for scotland at least, even a possible reload a few days later and the jet does show signs of becoming more southerly tracking from around christmas week so it will be interesting to see if the milder phase can be replaced with a cooler/colder pattern by then, fingers crossed. Let's also remember the strat warming which should have a big impact on our weather during january, so hopefully good blocking potential by then with potent cold spells to look forward to in jan and feb.

Looking at the latest output, after a great start with lots of snow, skiing in the alps xmas time looks terrible, with freezing levels above 3000m (west) back in the UK some small chances of a Northerly toppler in Fi

[snow drift]

The latest models show an unsettled outlook with spells of wet and windy weather seperated by brighter, showery conditions, temps around average but with some mild days, pressure rising across europe and the jet tilting more sw/ne for a while but around christmas week there are good signs of colder weather on both the gfs and ecm, especially the gfs with a chance of a northerly, mainly for the north of the uk with a chance of a white christmas for scotland at least, even a possible reload a few days later and the jet does show signs of becoming more southerly tracking from around christmas week so it will be interesting to see if the milder phase can be replaced with a cooler/colder pattern by then, fingers crossed. Let's also remember the strat warming which should have a big impact on our weather during january, so hopefully good blocking potential by then with potent cold spells to look forward to in jan and feb.

Christmas eve and the big day. Lets hope it changes. You could be forgiven for thinking they are the 2mTemps!!

Edited December 15, 2012 by snow drift

[Frosty.]

Looking at the latest output, after a great start with lots of snow, skiing in the alps xmas time looks terrible, with freezing levels above 3000m (west) back in the UK some small chances of a Northerly toppler in Fi

Yes I agree, it's looking a bit like a year ago but I think the milder phase won't last long and there are already signs of a colder trend by christmas week for the uk so let's work through the inevitable milder spell and look forward to what lies beyond it. I have high hopes for potent cold to look a more realistic prospect through the new year period. There is still a chance that the gfs and ecm op runs are over biased to a mild outlook, and it could be toned down.

Christmas eve and the big day. Lets hope it changes.

Yes I fully agree.

[nick sussex]

Well it looks like the Xmas Miracle boat has finally sunk this morning, after taking on water after last night being hit by the zonal torpedo unfortunately the SOS wasn't responded to today.

I think its been a few weeks model watching that we'd all like to forget with the easterly tease imploding and then hopes for something festive hittings the buffers.

The jet has been edged north over the last few runs and once that trend starts its hard to stop. Apart from the GEM which shows the briefest of interests its desperate looking stuff this morning.

[Frosty.]

Well it looks like the Xmas Miracle boat has finally sunk this morning, after taking on water after last night being hit by the zonal torpedo unfortunately the SOS wasn't responded to today.

I think its been a few weeks model watching that we'd all like to forget with the easterly tease imploding and then hopes for something festive hittings the buffers.

The jet has been edged north over the last few runs and once that trend starts its hard to stop. Apart from the GEM which shows the briefest of interests its desperate looking stuff this morning.

It's not all doom and gloom, yes we have a milder phase to work through but there is light at the end of the tunnel, nothing like as awful as last winter in my opinion, just need some patience and we will get our rewards.

Edited December 15, 2012 by Frosty039

[nick sussex]

It's not all doom and gloom, yes we have a milder phase to work through but there is light at the end of the tunnel, nothing like as awful as last winter in my opinion, just need some patience and we will get our rewards.

It's good that you can be optimistic in the face of such dismal output. This set up isn't unusual for the UK but its really a long haul from here back to cold.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cmon all you big guns, gp,jh,chio,bftp,teits etc. Its friday eve im opening a nice bot o red and praying for some undercutting showing soon. Taking everything into account how do you guys feel(with all your experience) these next 2 wks or so will evolve to what the models are showing? Think of yourselfs in the smoky met room in the 70s/80s about to go live with nothing but intuition and skill. Bit of fun to liven the mood!

I'd be opening the Remy Martin right now and glugging it. I believe the hunt for deep or prolonged cold must be put on back burner for time being, Christmas generally Green with the current theme generally maintained. There will be cold incursions as well as mild but no decent cold spell likely. I'm still looking at Scandi developing a trough come end of month and possibly some cold to start the New Year but not to remain in situ and indeed it may be limited to the N and NE. BFTP

[Frosty.]

It's good that you can be optimistic in the face of such dismal output. This set up isn't unusual for the UK but its really a long haul from here back to cold.

It's a few dismal op runs that's all, most of us knew it would turn milder after the easterly blast failed so dismally, thats what it's like living in the uk which is one of the reasons you moved close to the mountains in france, hope u have a white christmas.

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensemble maps still have a few decentish solutions that have survived the zonal onslaught!

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[nick sussex]

It's a few dismal op runs that's all, most of us knew it would turn milder after the easterly blast failed so dismally, thats what it's like living in the uk which is one of the reasons you moved close to the mountains in france, hope u have a white christmas.

Yes well thats if the Pyrenees survive the barbecue weather! If its going to be mild at least let it stay dry, its looking okay I think one front moving through next week could give some decent snow on higher elevations and then it looks dry and warm.

I think its best to lower expectations and hope for the best.

[bluearmy]

The ECM ensemble maps still have a few decentish solutions that have survived the zonal onslaught!

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

was going to post that to pretend that we are looking at anything other than a mobile fortnight would be tantamount to 'covering our eyes'.

However, a look at ecm op day 7 reveals that we havent yet passed the 'tipping point' where the atlantic gets the upperhand against the blocking in a timescale where it can be considered 'reliable'. Infact, looking through those ens postage stamps, i'd say its very much stil 50/50, despite the appetite of the gefs to bring a zonal flow for its entire run. We shuld have this resolved by tomorrows 12z run where ecm will have this at T120 when it rarely gets the background pattern wrong.

[Ian Brown]

Well it looks like the Xmas Miracle boat has finally sunk this morning, after taking on water after last night being hit by the zonal torpedo unfortunately the SOS wasn't responded to today.

I think its been a few weeks model watching that we'd all like to forget with the easterly tease imploding and then hopes for something festive hittings the buffers.

The jet has been edged north over the last few runs and once that trend starts its hard to stop. Apart from the GEM which shows the briefest of interests its desperate looking stuff this morning.

Yes, the Atlantic has administered the coup de grace this morning with too much energy spilling East and North East, all models show heights rising over Europe and the possibility of these heights phasing with the declining Russian High which is only going to mean SWlies for us. I would say a zonal Xmas looks highly likely, just a case of where we are with the flow at day 10 as to how mild it will be.

[Mark Parsons]

It's not all doom and gloom, yes we have a milder phase to work through but there is light at the end of the tunnel, nothing like as awful as last winter in my opinion, just need some patience and we will get our rewards.

Its not like we have raging SW'lys from the Azores and a jet way up North is it! Well not yet anyway!!

We are akin to these milder set ups, but come on we have to be realistic with the wider picture surely? Although we are in the mild muck which we can get locked into is'nt the full picture, what is happening away from our shores are positive signals that this mild muck can't last.

[Steve Edgefield]

I have to concur with Steve M this morning after looking at this morning's models - the height rises over France & Spain are of growing concern, with the potential to send balmy weather our way over Xmas. If it isn't going to be cold, I would like it to be average at least. What I really don't like is a blowtorch Xmas - just isn't right!