Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[AWD]

Cloudy, dull & mild today.

Temperature currently 9.5c

[cerneman]

Just reading latest comments on model discussion thread, Think will Quietly slip out and buy snow shovel, Wrapped in brown paper bag of course,Don't want draw attention to myself

[Coast]

Just reading latest comments on model discussion thread, Think will Quietly slip out and buy snow shovel, Wrapped in brown paper bag of course,Don't want draw attention to myself

Too late - you're busted!!!

[cerneman]

Too late - you're busted!!!

Not my fault Gov, they made me do it

[Coast]

Quietly get yourself a selection of these too then:

Edited January 3, 2013 by Coast

[davecornwall]

Once again cloudy, mild and gloomy and about 11 degrees. Rubbish weather!

[cerneman]

Skiing down the hill past cerne giant could be great fun,

[Dorsetbred]

Just reading latest comments on model discussion thread, Think will Quietly slip out and buy snow shovel, Wrapped in brown paper bag of course,Don't want draw attention to myself

Too late you've done it you mentioned the "MOD" thread in here, whatever next

Tesco's are almost giving them away but be quick before they get the longer range outlook and up the prices again

Edited January 3, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

Once again cloudy, mild and gloomy and about 11 degrees. Rubbish weather!

Seems fairly generic 10.9C down here and (hang on) yep it's cloudy, wont say rubbish as it's now (at last ) dry, no drizzle

[cerneman]

Too late you've done it you mentioned the "MOD" thread in here, whatever next

Tesco's are almost giving them away but be quick before they get the longer range outlook and up the prices again

Will never mention that word again, Most be too over excited

[Snowangel-MK]

Exciting times ahead with all this SSW business, I did post this link in the SE & EA regional last night but if anyone in here is interested it's worth a read...

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable

I believe there is now solid evidence that a polar vortex collapse is probable in at least a few stratospheric levels in the next few weeks (for those wanting my definition of a collapse, see the last paragraph or two).

http://theweathercen...blogspot.co.uk/

Edited January 3, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Coast]

If you are still scratching your head about the whole SSW scenario:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

http://www.netweathe...-tutorial;sess=

and the whole splitting vortex issue (as 2010):

http://www.patricktm...t-polar-vortex/

Edited January 3, 2013 by Coast

[noggin]

If you've got heavy soil, you'll do more harm than good doing anything to it for the foreseeable future. Stay off it until it's drained properly (early Spring at the earliest) otherwise you'll be digging sand and grit into the top 8 - 10 inches or so whilst trampling the lower layers, creating more drainage problems. Keep your fingers crossed for some serious cold weather, water logged ground which then freezes, is broken up into a fine tilth with the expansion of water into ice - it's brilliant for heavy soils.

Aye, my "new" soil is heavy clay. It has been a quagmire since we moved in at the end of August. Trouble is, the builders have to keep walking over it.

I try not to look at it.......it depresses me .

Come late Spring or, at this rate, Summer, I hope to be able to start rectifying the matter.

[Snowangel-MK]

I try not to look at it.......it depresses me .

That's exactly how I feel about the MOD thread

[cerneman]

Aye, my "new" soil is heavy clay. It has been a quagmire since we moved in at the end of August. Trouble is, the builders have to keep walking over it.

I try not to look at it.......it depresses me .

Come late Spring or, at this rate, Summer, I hope to be able to start rectifying the matter.

You can when drying takes place add some organic matter,which will help break it down and be more workable, But leave well alone for now, If builders walking all over it, ask if they could put some planks down, Help them stop sinking in the stuff

[noggin]

Just reading latest comments on model discussion thread, Think will Quietly slip out and buy snow shovel, Wrapped in brown paper bag of course,Don't want draw attention to myself

Go on.......be brave! They are only £4.99 in Sainsbury's. When I bought mine, yesterday, I avoided eye contact with anybody (but I could see them from the corner of my eye, looking at me!)

Just think, they may remember us in a few weeks' time and wish that they had had such foresight!

[WestCountry11]

Could it be safe to say that the remainder of the 2012-2013 Winter here in the South-West will be a mild affair [as it has been since the Summer/Autumn],or is it to early to suggest that,seeing as Winter ends at the end of February..

[noggin]

Could it be safe to say that the remainder of the 2012-2013 Winter here in the South-West will be a mild affair [as it has been since the Summer/Autumn],or is it to early to suggest that,seeing as Winter ends at the end of February..

It isn't safe to say anything!

Judging from the MOD thread, snowmageddon will be upon us come mid-January.

Mind you, it was supposed to be upon us in December as well.

[Coast]

Could it be safe to say that the remainder of the 2012-2013 Winter here in the South-West will be a mild affair

Never!!!!!! In essence there are a few indicators that could lead to colder, possibly snowy conditions in a few weeks.

The MOD thread is a nightmare to follow currently for the uninitiated, but there are great posters in here who can guide you - no matter what your ability level or understanding.

But as always with the weather, it will do what it wants ultimately and no amount of speculation, forecasting chart gazing or guessing will change that!!!

[cerneman]

Could it be safe to say that the remainder of the 2012-2013 Winter here in the South-West will be a mild affair [as it has been since the Summer/Autumn],or is it to early to suggest that,seeing as Winter ends at the end of February..

Always to early dismiss winter even down here in south west, We are not immune from wintery outbreaks let alone any severe cold spell, Of course we don't know if we are to have such spell, Time will soon tell

[noggin]

If you are still scratching your head about the whole SSW scenario:

http://en.wikipedia....spheric_warming

http://www.netweathe...-tutorial;sess=

and the whole splitting vortex issue (as 2010):

http://www.patricktm...t-polar-vortex/

In the third link, mention is made of low pressure bringing wind and rain to Europe and of the mild air which accompanies it being dragged up to the North Pole, thus causing the SSW which, in turn, causes a split in the polar vortex.

Would that correspond to what has happened here, recently (i.e. months of Gulf Stream conveyed rain and mild rubbish) and is that why it is thought that a SSW is about to happen?

Do I make any sense? I know what I am trying to say!

Also, in the second link.......is it really known as the polar night jet?

Questions, questions!

[Coast]

Also, in the second link.......is it really known as the polar night jet?

Second one first:

Polar night jet

The polar-night jet stream forms only during the winter months, i.e., polar nights, of the year in their respective hemispheres at around 60° latitude, but at a greater height than the polar jet, of about 80,000 feet (24,000 m).[51] During these dark months the air high over the poles becomes much colder than the air over the equator. This difference in temperature gives rise to extreme air pressure differences in the stratosphere, which, when combined with the Coriolis effect, create the polar night jets, racing eastward at an altitude of about 30 miles (48 km).[52] Inside the polar night jet is the polar vortex. The warmer air can only move along the edge of the polar vortex, but not enter it. Within the vortex, the cold polar air becomes cooler and cooler with neither warmer air from lower latitudes nor energy from the sun during the polar night

http://en.wikipedia....wiki/Jet_stream

In the third link, mention is made of low pressure bringing wind and rain to Europe and of the mild air which accompanies it being dragged up to the North Pole, thus causing the SSW which, in turn, causes a split in the polar vortex.

Would that correspond to what has happened here, recently (i.e. months of Gulf Stream conveyed rain and mild rubbish) and is that why it is thought that a SSW is about to happen?

I believe that is broadly the case and it follows the sort of pattern seen in 2010 (although it may not give the same outcome!! )

Edited January 3, 2013 by Coast

[Andy Bown]

It darn well better not snow in a serious way in the last week of January and opening few days of February as we're moving house!

After Feb 3rd would be fine! If it's to becme colder a longer repeat of the 2nd week of December would be good initially.

Could this winter end up something like 08/09 with the most wintry conditions in February?

[TwisterGirl81]

I hope we get snow, i'm tired of the mild and rainy conditions down here with the odd cold spell, we always miss out on the snow usually, I hope not this time!

[Coast]

I hope we get snow

I hope you do too, I hope everyone does who wants it!!!

Edited January 3, 2013 by Coast