Scotland Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Doon again...

Come tae SS winter....

[A Winter's Tale]

A return to mild, dull, dark atlantic weather with some light rain and drizzle. It seems like eastern Scotland could be lucky enough to see some sunshine however tomorrow. This pattern should continue for a while but a pattern change is brewing on the horizon and it really is going to make for an exciting period - there's even a buzz at the Met Office about the predicted SSW.

I'm in the proccess of doing a review about the weather of 2012 in Scotland but I'll show you what I've got so far.

A Kilted Review of the Year in Weather: 2012

The year started off with a bang as the country was battered in the early hours of the 3rd January thanks to a sting jet. There was widespread damage and distruption and at Blackford Hill, Edinburgh there was a gust of 102mph - the storm was judged to have been the worst in 13 years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16385049

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16392381

http://www.metoffice...ng/2012_janwind

Much of the first third of the month was unsettled with atlantic lows sweeping the country - as a result it was a mostly mild and wet period with some stormy weather. Dundrennon in Dumfries and Galloway on the 4th had a gust of 76mph and peak gust of 65mph was recorded at Peterhead on the 6th.

There was a change to colder and settled conditions around mid-month with some fine sunny and frosty conditions and some fog. There was some low minimum values such as -10.5C recorded at Aboyne on the 16th and a maximum of -2.8C at Cassley on the same day.

There was a return to unsettled weather on the 17th but there was a snowfall that left a depth of 8cm at Aviemore on the 19th. There was a return to windy weather with a gust of 70mph at Loch Glascarnoch on the 21st as the weather remained changeable and on the mild side across the country.

The month ended on a cold, anticyclonic note with a southeasterly breeze developing and there were some snow showers at times in parts of the country. Loch Glascarnoch recorded a low of -6.9C on the 27th.

January was the mildest since 2008 in Scotland with a mean temperature of 3.2C. The mean maximum and minimum was 5.8C and 0.6C. Despite rainfall being above average at 183mm, it was the 5th sunniest January in Scotland with a total of 44.1hrs. Air frosts stood at a fairly low 10.4 days.

February started where January left off, as the cold and settled conditions persisted throughout the first third of the month. There were frosty nights, some fog patches and locally some snow flurries to begin with and a few occasions there was some days of rainfall as fronts edged further east into Scotland. There was even some freezing rain in Dumfries and Galloway on the 9th. Temperatures on a few nights went down to -10C in the highlands.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16869164

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16950627

The settled conditions continued into the start of the middle third of February in eastern areas but it was mild for everyone with maximum temperatures of reaching 11C or 12C on a few days. There was some wet weather in north western areas during the period.

Following a very breif cold spell, the final third of the month was unsettled and very mild. It was very mild in the north east with highs of 15.7C at Aboyne on the 22nd, 15.9C on at Dyce on the 23rd and 17.2C at Dyce on the 28th which is just short of the Scottish record.

It was a very mild month overall, 8th mildest since records began and the mildest since 1998, with a mean temperature of 4.4C. Mean maximum and minimum was 7.1C and 1.7C. It was also a fairly dull month with 50.4 hours of sunshine and rainfall was closer to average at 108.3mm. It was a poor month for air frosts with only 9.1 days.

March began on a changeable note with some fronts, showers, spells of sunshine and a brief wintry spell which resulted in a snow depth of 3cm at Aviemore on the 8th.

The 10th-14th saw dry, mild but cloudy conditions with the best of sunshine in eastern areas. Some areas of rainfall affected southern and western areas whilst northern areas stayed sunny just after mid-month. There were some cold nights in the highlands with a low of -8.5C at Braemar on the 18th.

The final third of the month was very dry, sunny and most notably very mild and even warm. It reached 17.6C at Lossiemouth on the 21st. There was some mist and low cloud at times in eastern areas, but the period 24th-30th was exceptional for it's fine and warm weather: a number of days the temperature reached 20C in a good number of places - 22.8C recorded at Fyvie Castle on the 25th broke the Scottish March maximum record, then it peaked at 23.2C at Cromdale the following day and finally the record was set at Aboyne on the 27th with a high of 23.6C. It stayed dry to the end but temperatures began to drop and it became cloudier.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...etland-17506257

http://www.bbc.co.uk...etland-17512701

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-17511244

March was exceptional for it's very mild temperatures and dry and sunny conditions. It was the warmest March of record with a mean temperature of 7.1C and the mean maximum and minimum was 10.9C (another record) and 3.3C. It was the 4th sunniest March with a total of 126.8 hrs and it was the 11st driest with a rainfall total of just 58mm. It was the 3rd poorest March for air frosts with just 4.2 days.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17595024

April however was a different story. The temperature continued to drop during the first few days and there were some spells of rain. The turnaround was complete with a notable snowfall on the 3rd which left a snow depth of 22cm at Whitehillocks, Angus. The chilly conditions followed the snow with a dry couple of days followed by spells of rain and showers. The maximum at Carterhouse on the 3rd was only 0.3C and Braemar recorded a low of -8.2C on the 5th.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-17578739

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-17595143

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-17597584

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-17601709

There was showery conditions before midmonth and there was some hail and thunder included in the showers. A spell of wetter weather arrived around midmonth and much of the final half of April was cool and showery. There some low minimum values of -7.2C at Tulloch Bridge on the 28th and -6.4C at the same location on the following day.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-17852535

It was an unusual scenario in which April was colder than March. The mean temperature was 4.9C making it the coldest April in Scotland since 1998. The mean maximum and minimum was 8.6C and 1.3C. It was wetter than normal across the eastern half of the country - the national rainfall total stood at 113.7mm. Sunshine was below average with a total of 121.1 hrs. There was 8.8 days with an air frost. Tiree was the sunniest place in the UK with 237 hrs.

The first three weeks of May was generally cool and unsettled with the odd fine day and occasionally strong winds. There was some spells of rain during the start although the second was a pleasant day with a high of 20.1C at Kinlochewe. This was followed by a spell of dry but cold weather with the maximum at Fair Isles on the 5th only 4.5C and a low of -6.2C at Saughall on the same day. There was also some snow showers aswell as the frosty nights.

The period 7th-18th May was changeable was some cool days, some heavy rainfalls with 101mm at Kinlochewe on the 13th. The 13th was also a stormy day with a gust of 67mph at Blackford Hill, Edinburgh. There were also some cool showery days with some brightness.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...w-west-18022243

The 19th-28th saw a marked change to much more settled, dry conditions with plentiful of sunshine and most notably an impressive Scottish heatwave during the 24th-28th with temperatures reaching the high to mid 20s. On the 23rd it reached 27.3C at Altnaharra, on the 24th it reached 27.3C at Bishopton, 28.1C at Kinlochewe on the 28th, a new Scottish record for May on the 25th with a high of 29.3C at Achnagart, 28.1C at Kinlochewe on the 26th, 29.0C at Cromdale on the 27th and 26.6C at Aberfeldy on the 28th. The final few days of the month saw a drop in temperatures and a return to rainfall.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...slands-18176494

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-18189728

http://www.bbc.co.uk...slands-18210356

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-18236851

May equalled the 1971-2000 average with a mean temperature of 8.6C and a mean maximum and minimum of 13.3C and 4.2C. Sunshine was above normal with a total of 205.2hrs whilst rainfall varied across the country, it came out as 83.2mm. There was 4.1 days with an air frost which is the 6th highest on record. Tiree saw 273 hrs of sunshine making it the sunniest place in the UK in May.

The first half of June saw generally cool temperatures and wet conditions with showery spells and some heavy bursts of rain and occasionally pretty windy. It was fairly dry and fine in the north west Highlands at times. A low of -3.5C at Loch Glascarnoch on the 5th. It reached 20.6C at Kinlochewe on the 6th.

Throughout the rest of the month, the cool, unseasonal conditions continued with further showers and frontal rainfall. There were a few pleasant and fine days at times and there were some thunderstorms aswell.

A month dominated by low pressure, it was the 9th wettest June on record in Scotland with 126.2mm of rainfall. The north west highlands and islands saw the best of the conditions in what was a very poor summer month for much of the country. It was a cool month too with a mean temperature of 10.4C, mean maximum and minimum of 14C and 7.1C. It was the 3rd dullest June on record with only 110.4 hrs of sunshine. It also had the 3rd highest number of air frost days with a total of 0.6. The sunniest place in the UK once again was Tiree with 167 hrs of sunshine.

The showery theme continued into the start of July and there were some thunderstorms and this followed by a spell of more persistent and heavy rainfall. It reached 24C at Lusa on the 6th.

The familiar story of unsettled, wet and generally cool conditions continued into the middle third of the month. There was further showers, some heavy frontal rainfall with just a few fine, dry and bright days.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...t-fife-18890247

It was more of the same into the first part of the final third of the month but the 24th-26th were better days with more sunshine and temperatures into the low 20s but the changeable conditions returned to see out the month.

It was the coolest July since 1998 with a mean temperature of 12.2C, mean maximum and minimum of 15.5C and 9C. It was the 10th dullest July with only 100.5 hrs of sunshine and a wet month with 127.7 mm of rainfall.

The showers became less frequent and more scattered during the first couple of days of August and there was a spell of pleasant weather with maximum temperature of 22.8C at Achnagart on the 3rd. But it was brief as thunderstorms developed and there was a return to changeable conditions with thundery showers. There were some funnel clouds spotted during the stormy weather.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-19162914

From the 8th-11th there was a spell of fine, settled, sunny conditions and warm temperatures up into the mid twenties for many as Eskdalemuir

recorded a high of 25.9C on the 10th.

This fine spell was followed by another changeable period of weather which lasted for around 10 days. There were some fine days and temperatures into low twenties for many and into the mid twenties in Moray on the 18th but there were further spells of rain and showers and even some thunder.

There was a mixture of fine days, showers, + bands of rain in what was a changeable and an unseasonal end to August. There was strong winds for the north west on the 27th with a gust of 64mph recorded at South Uist. The month ended on a cold note with a cold and frosty final night of summer with a low of -2.4C at Braemar.

It was the warmest August since 2004 with a mean temperature of 13.5C. Mean maximum and minimum was 17.3C and 9.7C. Sunshine was above normal aswell with a total of 144 hrs. Rainfall was above average with a total of 133.9mm. With 0.2 days days with an air frost is the third highest total for August.

The first couple of days of autumn started wet - especially in the western isles - but away from the north west, the remainder of the country was then generally dry with sunny spells and it reached 25.2C at Dyce on the 3rd.

Changeable conditions returned from the 7th. There was a mixture of weather: bands of rain; cloudy and dry days; bright and sunny days; showery and breezy days; drizzle. There was a gust of 56mph at Altnaharra on the 13th as the country experienced changeable and autumnal conditions.

The autumnal conditions continued showers, some heavy rain and brighter/dry days. It turned pretty chilly too around two thirds of the way through September, with a cold night on the 22nd/23rd as Braemar recorded a low of -4.1C

Unsettled and very autumnal conditons saw the month out. However the worst September storm in around 30 years hit Scotland around the 23rd-26th. This brought strong winds, low temperatures, heavy and prolonged rainfall and even some thunder. Inverbervie recorded a gust of 72mph on the 25th. Final days of the month was unsettled with a mixture of sunshine, showers and frontal rainfall.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-19713761

It was the coolest September since 1994 with a mean temperature of 10.3C. The mean maximum and minimum was 13.4C and 7.2C. It was quite a sunny September with a total of 113.2 hrs. And it was also a wet September with a total of 148.7mm. The total number of days with an air frost was 0.7 days which is the 9th highest.

The first 5 or so days of October started with a mix of sunshine and showers and a little bit of thunder. There was a settled period from 5th to 10th with fine, sunny spells, showers in the far north. There were some cold frosty nights too with a minimum of -5.3C at Tulloch Bridge on the 10th.

The following days up to the 19th brought periods of persistent heavy rainfall, overcast skies and some spells of sunshine, showers. There was some cold temperatures too: A maximum of 3.2C at Aviemore on the 16th and and a low of -7.8C at Braemar on the 17th and there was some snow to low levels in parts of the highlands for a time of the 17th.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-19935712

The 20th to 25th saw another settled spell with sunshine at the start and end of the spell and fog and some drizzle inbetween.

The 26th was a cold day with frequent wintry showers and a spell of significant snow in the north east. A maximum of 2.3C at Loch Glascarnoch on the 26th. However the end of the month was changeable with temperatures on the chilly side and spells of rainfall.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-20106383

It was the 6th coldest October on record with a mean temperature of 6.1C and the coldest since 1993. Mean maximum and minimum was 9.5C and 2.7C. Sunshine was above average with a total of 85.2 hrs and rainfall was close to average with a total of 154mm. It was the third highest October in terms of days with air frost with a total of 6 days.

The first 4 days of November chilly and showery conditions with typically autumnal weather. These showers were quite heavy and there were cold nights with a low of -5.7C at Loch Glascarnoch on 1st. There were also some decent spells of sunshine.

It was much milder and wetter from the 6th-20th with bands of rain, at times strong winds and a few sunny and showery days in what was changeable period. It was also much milder with some very mild days: a high of 14.1C at Tain Ridge on the 7th and 16.3C at Kinloss on the 13th.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-20405763

This was followed by a period of further unsettled conditions and more heavy rainfall but temperatures were generally on the chilly side. It was a cold and wintry end to the month with frosty nights and sunny days with some showers and spells of rain in places at times. There were some very cold temperatures: Braemar saw a maximum of 0.3C and a minimum of -7.3C on the 29th.

The cold and crisp conditions continued into the first part of December. There was plenty of sunshine, ice and frost and some wintry showers. There was a widespread frontal snowfall late on the 2nd and into the 3rd which left many parts of the country under a blanket of snow that would stay for several days. At Loch Glascarnoch on the 2nd it reached a high of just -2.2C and recorded a low of -8.2C.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-20575339

TBC

A really strange and contrasting year of weather. God knows what 2013 will bring but I'm intruiged and looking forward to finding out. Hopefully the first two months will come up with something really special. Also, it's coming up to a year since the Great Storm.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-20874921

[LomondSnowstorm]

Good stuff AWT, I'd forgotten half of that to be honest, a very interesting year really, not exactly pleasant though with so much wind and rain and a lack of warmth. My warmest day in 2012 was at the end of March, and in 2011 it was in the middle of May, both of which were 25C, with most of July 2012 lacking maxima above 20C (I remember noting that it was warmer on Christmas morning 2011 than at 2pm on one particular day), so that was very notable, along with the wind and rain obviously.

[Norrance]

After a cool and wet start temps reached 10.1C here an hour or so ago. At least it wasn't freezing at the football this afternoon but like the game the weather was rather bland and boring. A few similar days to come before any change I fear. Anyway here's hoping the second half of the month delivers something much more interesting.[unlike the second half of today's match].

[Snowplough33]

Great post AWT.

All getting a bit heated in the MT. Shame really as its been good recently with all the talk of SSW. Whether it will or won't effect the UK and IMBY, it's great fun hearing about it and all the unknowns with possibility of charts being turned on there heads and the models struggling with all the changing variables.

Anyway hopefully we will have lots to talk about over the coming few weeks.

[LomondSnowstorm]

For anyone enjoying the constructive tone of the model thread please don't spoil your opinions of that place by visiting there this evening, it's TOORP alley at the moment. I'll probably leave doing another summary until tomorrow at the earliest because the short term looks pretty dreich, though at least it's not drookit, while in the longer term we're still in almost exactly the same place as we were whenever I wrote that mini-novel a few days ago, with any changes (other than maybe a bit of a westward adjustment today compared to yesterday) being more random noise than discernible signal. In the strat the best news for the moment is a lack of major changes because it is a very favourable looking pattern for later in the month, which there's a hint in the 100mb charts of an optimal vortex split by mid month.

[Cheggers]

Surprise surprise!!!

[Northernlights]

Miserable dull morning here after very heavy rain overnight. Can"t wait for high pressure to take over and let the water drain away. Currently 6c

Currently 12c strong SW wind and very humid with all walls sweating in the steading. Warmest its been for months.

[BleakMidwinter]

It sounds a bit windy out there the now. In less than two hours it'll be the year's anniversary of our house having that cast-iron skylight ripped out by the 102mph gust recorded 40 foot higher and less than one mile away from us.

'Scuse me while I just nip through to that boxroom and tie the roof down with some bits of string... better safe than sorry!

[Hairy Celt]

Surprise surprise!!!

Or is that surprise at the 3-0... Tings can only get better there.

Yeehaa. Last of the s0dding woodchip wallpaper scraped off this evening. If anyone ever suggests using it, look them in the eye... then tell them it's carcinogenic or something cos it's the decorator's nightmare to get off.

Oh, the weather... yeah, mild & breezy. Pfff.

AWT, your summary of 2012 above makes an excellent read, many thanks for taking the time to put that together. 5*.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[BleakMidwinter]

Yeehaa. Last of the s0dding woodchip wallpaper scraped off this evening. If anyone ever suggests using it, look them in the eye... then tell them it's carcinogenic or something cos it's the decorator's nightmare to get off.

Ahahahahaaa! Yeah, my neck and arms still remember getting the walls bare in my attic bedroom when I was 19 - sloping walls, flat ceiling just within my arm's reach, and all vertical walls, all in woodchip and multiple layers of emulsion...

The only thing worse is a scullery completely covered in multiple layers of distemper, pre-war stuff made of boiled-bone-glue and pigment so no chemical stripper works on it. I tried everything and eventually got a wire brush attachment for a mate's angle-grinder and took the plaster off and re-skimmed that - it was easier than scraping the distemper off!

Weather? Oh right, yes, sorry. Um. Still blowy here, but the roof is still on, ten minutes into the 3rd Jan

[edo]

Surprise surprise!!!

when the model thread breaks down before your eyes

And the toys come out the pram like little boys

That's no surprise u see

No surprise surprise

[LomondSnowstorm]

What I find amazing is how short some people on the MT/moaning thread's memories are when it comes to past winters, given that they're supposedly into weather in quite a big way. Three winters ago was the second coldest in Scottish history and the coldest since 78/79, while last December was the coldest December in Scottish history and one of the coldest Decembers in the 350 year history of the Central England Temperature average, and still people think that we're in a particularly mild spell of winters where major cold spells are unsustainable and yearn for 'proper winters' to return. I really do wonder if the last few years were a dream and we're back in Autumn 2009 sometimes.

Anyway, Scottish mean will come in just under 1C below average I believe, so somewhere around 2C, so my prediction of 1.8C wasn't too far off. My CET value however was 1C too low, and my original forecast did assume a big N/S split anyway, so I do feel that some of their frustration is perhaps justified.

Giving an honest appraisal of the LRF so far would be hard to do given I'm somewhat biased, but I don't feel it's done an awful job at giving the general pattern. The one big miss was the lack of Greenland blocking, and that's true for many forecasts, but on the ground the main error was a failure to note the above average precipitation signal. I'd say it's on pretty shaky ground technically but on the ground it's managed to bluff its way through at least the broad details of colder and milder spells, although this has really highlighted to me just how crucial but tough it is to give a reasonably good forecast for precipitation totals. Let's see how the rest goes.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Blawin a hoolie oot there. Likin the control. Mean continuing to head in the right direction.

EDIT just heard bang outside. Wonder what that was

Edited January 3, 2013 by scottish skier

[lorenzo]

More and more blocked solutions arriving in the GEFS suites as each model run passes. Beyond 300hrs there are some absolute storming charts.

Things are getting a lot more interesting now for mid January onwards.

Hope nothing is broken SS.. nothing worse than surprise repairs needed.

[Guest]

This has probably been posted elsewhere on the forum, but it shows that the weather is relative:

http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/NewDelhi/Coldest-day-in-44-years-takes-Delhi-deaths-to-20/Article1-984002.aspx

[edo]

Blawin a hoolie oot there. Likin the control. Mean continuing to head in the right direction.

im liking the new daily feature SS meanwatch........watch the slide to the cold side

[LomondSnowstorm]

Every single run the big low to our west makes less and less eastward progress. It wouldn't be a surprise to see more charts like the GFS 6Z or even better ones with true east Greenlandic heights developing within high resolution....

[Guest]

Every single run the big low to our west makes less and less eastward progress. It wouldn't be a surprise to see more charts like the GFS 6Z or even better ones with true east Greenlandic heights developing within high resolution....

Here we go again then, all toys firmly strapped back in the pram. I like someone's post in the model thread of not telling any family or friends about what might be stirring; I would extend that to say that everyone is banned from buying any snow related kit (sledges, shovels, etc.) until after the first six inches of snow have fallen.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

im liking the new daily feature SS meanwatch........watch the slide to the cold side

The morn's ECM surface T ensembles for London. GFS 00Z on the milder side...

Looking like more seasonal again by the 9/10th.

If we all collectively will it to happen, might help.

Oh, and the bang I heard this morning was next door's wheelie bin off for a stroll. No damage done!

EDIT.

And the 06Z

Oh, and, well, it's actually rather pleasant out there right now.

Edited January 3, 2013 by scottish skier

[Ravelin]

everyone is banned from buying any snow related kit (sledges, shovels, etc.) until after the first six inches of snow have fallen.

Yeah I wholeheartedly agree, but then we're well prepared. After not being able to buy a snow shovel or grit for love nor money the two winters before, we stocked up Nov 2011 with both in preparation for the approaching winter. We all know what then happened and I think the shovels got thier first use recently i.e. Dec 2012.

Ravelin

[Cheggers]

Officially 2012 was the second wettest on record. 4 of the top 5 are within the last 12 years!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20898729

[November13]

Yeah I wholeheartedly agree, but then we're well prepared. After not being able to buy a snow shovel or grit for love nor money the two winters before, we stocked up Nov 2011 with both in preparation for the approaching winter. We all know what then happened and I think the shovels got thier first use recently i.e. Dec 2012.

Ravelin

I didn't even use my shovel at the start of December as it would have been just for the sake of it. The snow we had was so minimal it would have been silly. We bought our shovel in November 2011 and it has not been used.Must be a record. I am trying to stay positive but so far the winter has been very diasapointing. The temperatures are grim at present. We need a big change in the middle of Jan to make it a reasonable winter. This reminds me of mid September weather. There are buds coming out on our rose bush!

[Guest]

I didn't even use my shovel at the start of December as it would have been just for the sake of it. The snow we had was so minimal it would have been silly. We bought our shovel in November 2011 and it has not been used.Must be a record. I am trying to stay positive but so far the winter has been very diasapointing. The temperatures are grim at present. We need a big change in the middle of Jan to make it a reasonable winter. This reminds me of mid September weather. There are buds coming out on our rose bush!

The snow is just waiting for me to move house N13...three weeks from now the blizzards can begin :lol: Actually, make that three weeks tomorrow at about 8pm, will have my boys home so it would be good to get snowed in for a fortnight just after they arrive.

[Northernlights]

Very pleasant spring day fresh SW wind and currently 10c and the mud starting to dry up.

Working on the assumption that the models may be latching onto something today we are clearing a few loads of neeps by hand at the edge of the field which the machine cannot reach thereby utilising everything and not touching the stored neeps for the inside cattle for 2 weeks or so and keeping them for the bad weather if it comes. Cows still going out and getting their drill every day