Scotland Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[Zenarcher]

Had a few hail showers mixed with a bit of sleet and strong gusty winds last night didn't expect anything wintry at all.

[Hairy Celt]

Quiet in this corner due to domestic duties...

Went out to sample the tail of the winter storm and nearly got blown in the firth

Back to domestic duties now...

(any port in a [winter] storm later )

Edited December 30, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Cheggers]

Silence from here due to throbbing head kicking in, after one too many Southern Comforts last night\this morning.

Don;t untie those trampolines etc as another low approaches.....

[snowy owl]

Ocht no mair wind!

Was thinking of a wee drive to the borders tomorrow too, a wee spot of lunch etc. (recommendations for eateries gratefully received - thinking Selkirk area )

Damp and breezy here today, put off a walk around Edinburgh today as it was a bit chilly too.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Ocht no mair wind!

Was thinking of a wee drive to the borders tomorrow too, a wee spot of lunch etc. (recommendations for eateries gratefully received - thinking Selkirk area )

Damp and breezy here today, put off a walk around Edinburgh today as it was a bit chilly too.

Lauderdale Hotel in Lauder does very fine food and ales. Flat Cat Gallery on the main street is also nice for tea, coffee, scones, cakes etc.

Italian restaurant 'Monte Cassino' in Melrose is top notch too.

[Ravelin]

Well at least any lack of snow in the next week or two may encourage me to get out running and try to shift some of the Xmas excess from around my waist. I could also do with a lack of gales and horizontal rain too in that respect.

Hopefully the signs in the strat mean we'll get back to some chillier weather by mid to late Jan. I can't say I understand much of the strat stuff yet but it'll be interesting to see how everything materialises.

Ravelin

[skyeblue]

Totally sick of drink. On my last cider .need to set local shop on fire the nite. But too much rain will put it oot

Edited December 31, 2012 by lorenzo

[Ravelin]

Sure I saw a post in the last few days bemoaning the 'pish' weather the UK is subjected to. I wasn't in a position to reply to it at the time and I can't seem to find it again to quote it. Borne out of fustration no doubt and yes, it's fustrating that we don't get the nice warm summber and cold snowy winter of contintental Europe or America.

It could be worse though. I had the luck to live for 3 years in Orlando. Overall it was a geat experience, but as far as weather goes, monotinous! For 6-8mths of the year you were a slave to airconditioning cos other than early morning and late evening it was just too damn hot and humid to be bearable (and although I love snow and cold I also don't mind a bit of heat). You could pretty much be sure of heavy rain every day during that period too, generally any time between 2-6pm was a good bet (and it makes to downpours here look like a light shower). The only saving grace was if you liked thunderstorms cos I saw some right crackers during my time there. Gets scarey though when there's no dicernable time lapse between the flash and the crack (not rumble!).

The winter months were much more pleasant, being warm and generally dry. Still a monotonous succession of blue skys and sunny days though, with even a slight frost being a major news story due to the effect on the orange/citrus trees.

We may not have anything close to the perfect climate but I prefer it to that and it is rarely dull. If only I could get it to be cold and snowy when I want to go skiing, and dry and sunny when I want to go hill walking....that's what i find most fustrating, not getting the right weather when I have the time and desire to get out and about.

Ravelin

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks like we will be heading into the New Year with a cold northwesterly flow and snow for some:

A white New Year for Glasgow perhaps?

Not going to last too long though, with heights building in from the south. Disagreement on the positioning of this, but this is likely to be the dominant feature of our weather for the next week or perhaps even longer, giving initially mild to very mild temperatures with some rainfall, particularly for northern and western parts:

While this clearly doesn't exactly seem like a great thing, and believe me there is nothing worse at this time of year than a damp tropical maritime flow, it does have two major advantages for us. The first is obvious: while rainfall won't be entirely absent, it will be significantly drier for all of us than under the current regime, which will be a welcome break. The second one is a longer term point, for which we need to delve a little deeper into both the historical analogies and the larger scale signals which are set to dramatically switch around by the middle of the month.

The historical point is one I've made many times before,including in December 2009 and in November 2010, and in both instances this has held true: it all starts with a mid latitude pressure rise.

January 1947:

December 1962:

January 1985:

January 1987:

December 2009:

There are a few exceptions, like 78-79 and 81-82, where the cold was initially driven by a very southerly tracking jetstream even without major heights to the north, but by and large this is how we get the cold in. A few days ago I made a similar post when this became a possibility, and noted that this particular height rise may not last, and could be flattened out by the jet. This remains a strong possibility, and in fact the ECM operational tonight does do that, albeit not entirely flat:

However, we have another possible direction of travel, whereby the pattern is further west and a bit more amplified, which creates either a longer lasting block positioned around the UK or, as in the case of the 12Z GFS, a proper transfer of heights northwards:

Ordinarily, you'd probably back the ECM on this one and say that the high pressure incursion will be short lived. However, there are reasons to believe that this is not going to be the case, and something a little more interesting may be afoot.

Firstly, we have the strat warming:

What this will do is give a beating to the stratospheric vortex, which will, hopefully, propagate down the atmospheric to our friend the tropospheric vortex and cause a much more blocked Northern Hemisperic outlook. The response can take time though: with a displacement Sudden Stratospheric Warming of this type we're looking at something along the lines of 3 major propagations over the course of 45 days after the warming, so with the first one making a major impact at the surface around the 15th of January. Sometimes, though, this response can be almost immediate like in late January 2009. There is the chance still, just a chance at this stage, of a more immediate response to the warming, which would occur within the next 10-12 days. While some outputs have hinted at this, and while conditions for downward propagation of the warming to affect our level is very much favourable, I don't feel that this is all that likely, and that it will be a more gradual process with the start of any big cold spell coming around mid month or later. We're certainly not guaranteed of this by any means: the vortex has been shunted over to Greenland and is looking relatively robust, so surely the blocking could easily end up setting up poorly from our perspective? Well yes, there are no guarantees with stratospheric warmings, but then again we have a lot more going for us than just the initial warming. Firstly, even if what remains of the vortex does end up over western Greenland to start with, I don't think it'll be hanging around for too long:

If this does indeed come off as forecast, then it really would be a matter of time before blocking started to develop over Greenland. That's of course far from guaranteed, so we may need a helping hand from our friend the MJO ( http://en.wikipedia....n_oscillation for a basic explanation) which has currently locked us into some very unhelpful phases:

which translates to:

moving into

which combined looks a lot like this:

However, as the chart also shows, the destination of the MJO by the end of the model period is somewhere around phase 6, which for January looks like this:

This is effectively the transitory phase from mid latitude block to Greenland block, and while the MJO isn't always a good match, when the amplitude is as large as it currently is it's likely to not be all that far from accurate. Therefore, my own view is that mid latitude heights are likely to hang around our latitude up about the 12th, possibly with heights moving east-northeastwards at points and allowing the models to throw up a few easterly scenarios, when a combination of factors is likely to give us a shot at retrogression from mid month onwards.

In summary, then, there is a very clear road map to a cold spell for the second half of January, and while there will be detours, possible delays and maybe even some forward movement of the timescales, things for the moment are broadly going to plan. For the next week, this may seem on the ground like a major step away from cold, but in actual fact this is necessarily the beginning of a journey which will take us from a typical zonal winter pattern to something potentially much more interesting down the line, and if things come off in the right way the considerable patience required to see this through will be rewarded big time.

Edited December 30, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[scottishandy]

Since we're on the subject of Scottish weather, how about a few pictures of some of the different types we get? Just to kill time till mid Jan and some more cold.

Arisaig the day of the flooding at the Castle Stewart golf course in 2009.

A couple of views from Glencoe ski centre.

Atmospheric mist on Loch Chon.

Sun on loch Achray a week earlier.

A mix another week later.

Wind.

More mist clearing to an inversion.

And not forgetting December 2010.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Like this, basically:

[Cheggers]

Wind really picking up again just for a change.

BE CAREFUL IF SHOPPING IN ASDA OR TESCO'S

Just had this forwarded to me...................be Careful out there

Over the last month I have become a victim of a clever Eastern European scam while out shopping. Simply dropping into Asda for a bit of shopping turned out to be quite an experience. Don't be naive enough to think it couldn't happen to you or your friends....

...

Here's how the scam works: ...Two seriously good-looking voluptuous 20-21 year-old girls come over to your car as you are packing your shopping into the boot. They both start cleaning your windscreen, their breasts almost falling out of their skimpy T-shirts. When you thank them and offer them a tip, they'll say 'No' and instead ask you for a lift to the town centre.

You agree and they both get in the back seat. On the way, they start undressing, until both are completely naked. Then, when you pull over to remonstrate, one of them climbs over into the front seat and starts crawling all over your lap, kissing you, touching you, and thrusting herself against you, while the other one steals your wallet!

I had my wallet stolen November 4th, 9th, 10th, twice on the 15th, 17th, 20th, 24th and 29th. On December 1st, 4th, 6th and twice yesterday. So please warn all the older men you know to be on the lookout for this scam. The best times seem to be just before lunch, and about 4:30 in the afternoon.

P.S. Sainsburys have cheap wallets on sale for £1.45 each but Asda wallets are £2.25 and look better

Edited December 30, 2012 by Cheggers

[blitzen]

Great post LS! I for one will be watching from behind the couch this week for the signs of something special developing for us. I can't even begin to contemplate the disappointment that I and everyone else will feel if things don't fall into place. Wouldn't it be great for all of us to be reporting about our snowy situations supported by loads of photos. I remember the time of the stalled front (which caught out the Met.) and led to that great snowfall across the central belt and caused all sorts of problems, (and one or two untimely departures from local Government! Still, all we can do is remain positive and hope things go our way. God knows we deserve a break after all the lousy weather we have had to endure this year!

[Hairy Celt]

I don't understand more than half of some of the more ^erudite posts in the MT (well mebbe long-winded), but there are too many caveats and disclaimers for my liking.

Best port in any storm tonight tho - blatchcocked and flamboobled& 18 sheets to the windies... 3C & drizzly.

[Guest]

I was going to post up a couple of charts but what's the point when our resident weather lecturer has done his usual impressive job, good work LSS

All I can add is...'mon the blocking!!!

[mistyqueen]

Yet another wild night up here, getting a bit bored of howling gales and horizontal rain now. This brings that ominous drip, drip in the bedroom, and I still haven't found where the rain is getting in, probably behind the wardrobe. Anyhoo, hope it stays dry(ish) and calm(ish) for all you Noo Year revellers. Have a good one when it comes. Slainte mhath!

[Cheggers]

Wind still bulldozing through the Central belt with the worst of it peaking now. Some serious sustained gusts going off, with the bin men doung a sterling chasing the bins doon the street.

[edo]

Still not had much wind here...for some reason seem to be missing it all....anyway currently light to medium drizzle....seen this picture on Matt Hugos twitter from North Brunswick.....that will be my patio table by 3rd week of January....puts yours to shame SS

[blitzen]

Morning. Definitely picked up the wind last night. Still very breezy this morning. I wonder if we will have something exciting on the charts to discuss by this time next week? Matt Hugo seems to think that there may be a decent chance. Have included a link to his latest blog for those that haven't managed to read it.

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/12/30/a-new-month-a-new-year-january-2013/

Edited December 31, 2012 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

Morning. Definitely picked up the wind last night. Still very breezy this morning. I wonder if we will have something exciting on the charts to discuss by this time next week? Matt Hugo seems to think that there may be a decent chance. Have included a link to his latest blog for those that haven't managed to read it.

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/12/30/a-new-month-a-new-year-january-2013/

Marked improvements once again on the 00Zs today, GFS very keen on really raising heights over us and to our north before transferring them northwest to Greenland while the ECM looks like a more amplified version of yesterday's runs, albeit it does keep the PV over Greenland which would possibly delay or at the very least not allow any forward movement of the start of the spell.

[November13]

Been a pretty crapp December this year other than the first 10 days. However I was doing my stats and it was marginally better than last year:

December - 2012 - Average temp 4.1c / Lowest temp -5c Highest 13c

December - 2011- Average temp 4.5c/lowest temp -2.3c Highest 16c

Take away the crazy storm on the 8th December 2011 and the two months are pretty similar. Wet/Windy and mild. As I seem to remember there was a cold period at the start of December 11. Then it was mild and very mild. so mild that we were getting September type weather in winter. I just hope the 2013 doesn't continue with this guff. The winter that never came! We need to have a decent January to have a proper winter.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Both GFS and ECM ensembles suggesting a return to colder/cooler post mild period.

Surface T London ECM 00Z

GFS 00Z T850 Midlothian

[skyeblue]

Warnings of snow out from the meto mm

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Warnings of snow out from the meto mm

Issued at:1117 on Mon 31 Dec 2012

Valid from:1800 on Mon 31 Dec 2012

Valid to:1000 on Tue 1 Jan 2013

Showers will turn increasingly to snow on high ground during New Year's Eve afternoon and evening, and continue overnight through into New Year's Day morning. 2-4 cm fresh snow may accumulate over high ground above 300 metres but perhaps 5-10 cm across the northwest of this region. Some temporary slight slushy deposits are possible down to 200 metres. Patchy ice will be an additional hazard on some surfaces, mainly in rural areas. The public are advised to be aware of these wintry conditions and of the potential for some disruption to travel over the higher routes.

Edited December 31, 2012 by scottish skier

[howham]

Dec 12 will come out below average temp wise here. The 4th successive December to do so. Some decent snow here on the first 14 days. Slowly less cold in the second half.