Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12

[Weathizard]

Snowking- An absolutely fantastic post, great to see posts like that still exist.

I genuinely don't think the charts are as bad as what some are making out, they are poor yes but we could be in a far worse situation, hopefully we'll see the warming coming into effect soon not sure I can stand the negativity level of here for much longer!

[IDO]

in all the years I have been on this forum, I have never put anyone on 'ignore'. I need to congratulate you on being the first. I note you don't have a location in your avatar. You don't live in Dawlish by any chance?

Your posts are so negative with no evidence to support vague nonsensical statements. Last jan was similarly mild in eastern Europe and last feb was the coldest period for decades. Many parts of France saw a well below zero mean temp for the first tow thirds of feb. At least I won't have to read your rubbish any longer.

we may well see a mild winter overall. No one knows, least of all you. Why not put some evidence down like Ian does. I have no opinion on what the second half of jan and feb have in store.

I agree. Even though the winter has been poor for cold (IMBY), overall it has been very interesting model wise, and the UK only just missed out on some wintry weather. With what appears an almost certain SSW we will get the effects of this for over a month so various chances to get some cold during the cycle of the SSW. Even if we are unlucky with that, it will likely reset the NH synoptics and we may then get a colder pattern afterwards. So in reality the winter may only just be about to start and I look forward to some expert opinions on the SSW (my first since I started model watching).

Edited December 29, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[johnholmes]

There are some posts in here that suggest the poster has little understanding of meteorology and/or has not bothered to look back at past winters. If you wish to be pessimistic about the outlook as a cold lover-fine, but for goodness sake do try and look at what has happened before. The post by SK is a good example of showing charts that produced large turn a rounds in the weather for the UK.

If on the other hand you are a mild lover then continue to be happy with the current chart outputs in the synoptic model area.

The weather has a habit of doing 180 degree turns when least expected, cold to mild or vice verca so don't be too surprised over what it may decide to deliver in January let alone February.

The main positive thing about the next few days is that at long last the downpours are going to ease off and give the folk with flooding problems some chance to start the long process of drying out. Pity some, indeed many farmers, who are still unable to get some of their animal fodder off the fields let alone think in terms of winter sowing.

Edited December 29, 2012 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

Ignoring the hunt for cold and toys coming out of the pram. Some interesting weather for Scotland later today with strong winds and for Northern England tomorrow. At least at the moment it looks like the rain will clear away for New years eve. Anybody who falls asleep on a park bench may actually wake up feeling chilly though next morning. At least early FI and into deep FI shows a chance of drying out something people who are flooded will welcome. After that signs of the Atlantic powering up again sufficiently enough to put the snow flake on the endangered species list. Thank gawd that bit is well into FI

[Glacier Point]

GEFS at least starting to sniff the UKMO lead on the eastward progression of the MJO.

At the extended day 11-15 range, a developing +ve height anomaly in the mid Atlantic (still fairly flat though) consistent with phase 6. Once we get to this point, the Rossby Wave activity will help shift out the low heights to the north associated with a phase 7-8 projection after mid month.

This has been a theme for a few runs now so some confidence in it, as well as support from UKMO ensemble system and operational. Noteworthy that an anomaly strengthening the further out you go in the runs.

Edited December 29, 2012 by Glacier Point

[Jason M]

The 0z GEFS had two cold runs in FI, the 6z has 3/4.

A good sign and hopefully an Op run picks one up soon.

Yes, def a small uptick in interest. The detail at that range is almost completely nonsense but I tend to just look at the rough patterns. Then as a whole they are still very poor, but I am interested in the bigger push north of the warm air next week shown on a number of them. If the WAA gets much further north it could cause a sudden rise in pressure over scandi out towards day 10. Most of the ensembles didn't quite get there but an early trend perhaps?

Loved the snowmans post. As trolling goes that one was really blatant. For anyone reading that the idea that Europe can't sustain cold in January is complete rubbish. During the second half of feb the sun starts to impact and a cold feed is needed, but in jan cold uppers can develop over the continent in situ given the right conditions.

Jason

[Frosty.]

I agree. Even though the winter has been poor for cold

The CET for december has been below the seasonal average, it's been rather cold at times with plenty of frosts in most of the uk during this month, the glaring item missing has been snow but hopefully we can put that right later next month and during february. At least the weather by the middle of next week will be turning more settled, so at last some welcome respite for the flooded areas and for everyone who would like to see some sunshine, your patience will soon be rewarded.

Edited December 29, 2012 by Frosty039

[Gustywind]

GP, in your opinion is the current unfavourable mjo phase the key driver behind the positive nao and zonality, or are other factors also driving this, e.g sst's, cold strat in late autumn etc?

[IDO]

The CET for december has been below the seasonal average,

Just: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

And likely to be around average by month's end. I did say "IMBY", FOUR frosts down my way. The story has been rain not cold; nearly three times the average in my area, not a flake of snow.

[Glacier Point]

@gustywind

We've 'enjoyed' a lot of tropical convection in the Indian Ocean (MJO phases 1-2) in the last 2 weeks and this follows on the back of the sharp uptick in solar activity at the end of November beginning December which may have lifted the tropopause over the tropics and a lagged response in terms of taller thunderstorm cloud developed. That, allied to a sharp drop in angular momentum (tied into the tropical response) explains nicely what we are currently seeing.

Fortunately, the longer term GEFS, UKM projections suggest the centre of tropical convection to be shifting eastwards and away from the Indian Ocean.

Edited December 29, 2012 by Glacier Point

[Frosty.]

Just: http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

And likely to be around average by month's end. I did say "IMBY", FOUR frosts down my way. The story has been rain not cold; nearly three times the average in my area, not a flake of snow.

It's better to look at the bigger picture, it's been a fairly cold month overall but

snowless for many.

Also a record breaking wet month, so it's been a strange month really, very wet and also cold at times but very little in the way of snow apart from the scottish mountains.

Edited December 29, 2012 by Frosty039

[Gustywind]

Thanks gp.

[swfc]

in all the years I have been on this forum, I have never put anyone on 'ignore'. I need to congratulate you on being the first. I note you don't have a location in your avatar. You don't live in Dawlish by any chance?

Your posts are so negative with no evidence to support vague nonsensical statements. Last jan was similarly mild in eastern Europe and last feb was the coldest period for decades. Many parts of France saw a well below zero mean temp for the first tow thirds of feb. At least I won't have to read your rubbish any longer.

we may well see a mild winter overall. No one knows, least of all you. Why not put some evidence down like Ian does. I have no opinion on what the second half of jan and feb have in store.

hi BA.I often think that some comments smack of desperation and are induced by a lot of pre xmas hype which did leave the gates open for a lot of dissapointment?Maybe the guys comments will prove to be correct,maybe not but he is entitled to his opinion whatever it may be.We live in a free speech society to be fair .I dont agree with his comments but im no expert so any evidence i could provide would be pure speculation as is often the case in weather forecasting and the mo .

[snowflakey]

Ian I hear what you're saying, and in the never to be mentioned period in the 90's, we would expect such a pattern to continue rolling.

However, to suggest a strong PV over Greenland means that is unlikely to change within a matter of weeks....well lets test that theory against some of the coldest winter periods.

arctic.

Brilliant post, lets hope for RSR to happen in the coming few weeks. I was surprised to see that in all the classic severe winters; that this was the case.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at GFS this afternoon and the first 14 days of 2013 look westerly dominated again with no cold at all. Its not all doom and gloom of course as next week will see high pressure building giving the flood hits areas time to dry out

Although this high is likely to be a cloudy one those on high ground may see some breaks at times mist and fog may affect some areas overnight in clearer spells

Later on the deep low pressure systems look like tracking across the north of Scotland

Although all areas are prone to rain the south and and east of the UK will see the best of the drier and brighter weather whilst the bulk of the rain seems likely in north and west

[Mark Parsons]

Ian I hear what you're saying, and in the never to be mentioned period in the 90's, we would expect such a pattern to continue rolling.

...

Well done for putting the time in to all that, proves that everyone needs to be optimistic and not dispondant all the time!! Edited December 29, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil

[mcweather]

snowking, on 29 December 2012 - 12:51 , said:

Ian I hear what you're saying, and in the never to be mentioned period in the 90's, we would expect such a pattern to continue rolling.

However, to suggest a strong PV over Greenland means that is unlikely to change within a matter of weeks....well lets test that theory against some of the coldest winter periods.

arctic.

Great post Snowking. I'm really getting tired of some of these posts that seem to think because we've had a rather zonal second half of December that somehow that's all we are going to get until March. To be honest those sorts of posts show a very poor knowledge of meteorology and even less knowledge of the British climate.

I would have thought that the main thing to notice on todays gfs ensemble for instance is that for a few runs now the run shows the ensemble mean dropping below the long term average around the 13th January. Strangely enough just about the time that GP'S winter forecast suggested we could start to see some interesting colder synoptics.

[kev238]

Let's be honest here. The immediate outlook is very poor for fans of cold and snow. However, a drier picture does seem definite now for at least a week or so from the NEw Year onwards.

I guess the period on from there is where any interest lies.

[A Winter's Tale]

Good afternoon. For this evening it may feel quite chilly in the fresh westerly wind but mostly dry and clear for eastern areas and showers for western coasts and the south west and Wales. Some fine clear conditions in the north east.

However during the night the it will be stronger westerly flow that will fire heavy and frequent showers in western areas and these showers will travel a fair bit inland aswell. But overall between the showers there should be some clear intervals overnight - especially further east. With low pressure centred just to the north west of Scotland there is also a concern regarding quite strong winds for the north west of Scotland the outer hebrides in particular. Also, the uppers could be between -4 and -6C so there is certainly a risk of some snow falling to lower levels in the heavy showers - however this will vary from region to region with the variations in factors such as upper air temperatures. And certainly there should be quite a decent fall of snow over the high ground with the mountains of Lochaber, Breadalbane and surrounding the Great Glen looking good for quite significant accumilations and where the showers fall there may well be a decent cover of snow above 1000ft on most hills - possibly lower. For more populated areas there may well be some sleet and hail overnight and with elevation, away from the sea and urban areas and with exposure to frequent heavy showers then some settlements may see something more significant. Quite an active night on the cards but even at this close range, any specific details on where, when and how much wintry precipitation will fall is all guess work but some upland areas in the north west are in for a wild night. Overnight lows generally 2 to 6C.

For the morning the showers could make for quite organised areas of precipitation in north western Scotland with further snow - certainly on the mountains. The wind is also likely to be quite strong in the north west with the potential for quite damaging gusts and a fresh morning everywhere. Probably less showers which are more likely to be rain with warmer uppers. However there could be some sunshine to start the morning in many places but it'll be a cold start to the day and combined with the wind and a risk of showers then you should put on extra layers when venturing outside. And it's not a day for going hill walking in the north west highlands!!!

During the afternoon, cloud cover will increase in Ireland and then into Wales, Scotland and western parts of England. And it should be a wet afternoon for much of Ireland with the wet conditions later spreading into south western Scotland and western parts of Wales and north west England. There could be a few lingering showers in north west Scotland whilst in eastern areas skies should remain mostly clear. Maximum temperatures of 4 to 9C.

During the evening, there should be further persistent and quite heavy rain for Northern Ireland and spreading into much of western Wales, north western England and south western Scotland with drizzle ahead of the persistent rainfall across Wales and central parts of England - skies clear in the far north of Scotland and the far south east of England.

Overnight - there should be further rainfall for much of Ireland, southern and western Scotland, and north western parts of Wales and England with some lighter precipitation lingering in the south west and southern parts of England and also the risk of some showers for the Northern Isles. Staying drier in the very north east of Scotland and for south eastern England. Quite a windy night too in the southwesterly flow. Overnight lows of 2 to 10C.

During Monday this band of heavy and persistent rain should be located across south eastern England with some light rain and overcast skies across central parts of England and into Wales - an overcast day for much of England and Wales. A showery day for Scotland and a dry day for Ireland with some sunny intervals in both Ireland and Scotland. Also a colder flow in the north westerly flow on the eastern edge of an area of high pressure close to the Azores attempting to ridge into Greenland. Maximum temperatures of 5 to 12C.

On Monday night the band of rain should eventually clear the south east whilst the cold northwesterly flow spreads across the British Isles and feeding showers into north western areas and these showers could be wintry with uppers of -5C. These showers should be mostly confined to coastal regions and for many it should be a dry night with some clear skies. Overnight lows of 0 to 5C.

Tuesday could be a pleasant day with possibly quite widespread sunshine. A largely dry too other than some showers which could be wintry at times. With a cold north westerly flow but settled conditions with the anticyclone to the southwest nearing the British Isles, maximum temperatures could be quite low with typical highs of 4 to 7C.

Tuesday night should see fine, settled conditions with largely clear skies and little precipitation and low minimum values of 0 to 3C. However with the mild atlantic air rolling ontop of the anticyclone, there could be some rain arriving in parts of Ireland later on in the night.

And indeed for Wednesday it is looking like an overcast and damp day for Ireland, Scotland, northern England and possibly western parts of Wales. Drier and sunnier the further south east you are whilst the precipitation in Scotland could be quite heavy. A milder day too with highs of 7 to 11C.

Wednesday night could be largely cloudy and mild with lows of 5 to 10C and some rain in the north west.

The outlook beyond is likely to vary but it seems like for the end of next week it could stay settled with some rain threatening the north west at times. Beyond the weekend and the outlook is viable for variations but it's worth keeping an eye for trends that may develop over the next week or two.

[-uksnow-]

As far as im concerned this run so far is much better, less is being made of the PV over greenland and again heights have extended further north

6z

12z

Although marginally, slightly lighter blues and better heights (i know, still fairly surfaced based) edging into South eastern greenland. Its improvements like this that we need to see, better angle of low pressure into the atlantic allowing this.

I would just like to add something else, off topic, but this thread is heading down hill

1) If you think someones post is good, as many are, surely just click the 'like' button rather than posting a one liner congratulating them?

2) If there is something you dont like that someone has posted, such as a winters over post that bares no evidence just dont comment on it and let the mods sort it out as im sure they will without you having to start a petit argument!

[mcweather]

With so many mistaken winter is over posts. Here's a little perturbation from the 06z to lift the spirits

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

Edited December 29, 2012 by mcweather

[cooling climate]

@gustywind

We've 'enjoyed' a lot of tropical convection in the Indian Ocean (MJO phases 1-2) in the last 2 weeks and this follows on the back of the sharp uptick in solar activity at the end of November beginning December which may have lifted the tropopause over the tropics and a lagged response in terms of taller thunderstorm cloud developed. That, allied to a sharp drop in angular momentum (tied into the tropical response) explains nicely what we are currently seeing.

Fortunately, the longer term GEFS, UKM projections suggest the centre of tropical convection to be shifting eastwards and away from the Indian Ocean.

Pity no one had foreseen this before it happened. Plus a couple of days spike in solar activity would I doubt very much have such an impact if any. It has been a lousy month long range wise.

Hopefully the strat warming we are seeing will provide more accurate forcasts as we go through the second half of January and into February.

Edited December 29, 2012 by cooling climate

[The Eagle]

I think most have given up at this stage on any meaningful cold before mid January. The charts are awful. UKMO is almost Spring like with no end in sight to the Euro high.

[Jason M]

The 12z shows more interest. A much greater push of warm uppers north like some of the ensembles from the previous run.

Upto 192 and fingers crossed maybe a pressure rise will occur over scandi. Good trend this to push the WAA further and further due north.

Jason

Edited December 29, 2012 by Jason M

[Jason M]

At 228 high forms over scandi. Sinks like the titanic afterwards but the seeds are sown in the high res section and the detail doesn't matter overly after this. Might be some good ensembles in the next hour.

Jason