Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 30/12/12

[snowking]

Well we've seen much much better but certainly not the end of the world on the ECM op tonight:

High pressure from the arctic starting to ridge towards the Greenland locale with slowly rising heights, amplified mid-atlantic, with further amplification just west of the states, and atlantic energy reducing significantly as the PV starts to move just west of Greenland (as suggested by 10-100mb profile), with the remaining atlantic energy digging SSE towards the med.

SK

Edited January 2, 2013 by snowking

[snowspotter]

Well at least we have some sort of weak heights to the North of us!

I think someone on here said wait 3-4 days for the models to start showing something more positive with regards to the stratospheric warming. in the meantime agreed , shocking

[nick sussex]

The ECM has been changing on a regular basis so this run will probably go the same way as the rest of its recent post 168hrs outputs.

Its evolution from 168hrs onwards looks very suspect though and IMO its synoptic garbage. One for the cat litter tray.

[-uksnow-]

Chin up everyone, we'll get there eventually...

[MR EXTREMES]

Chin up everyone, we'll get there eventually...

is that april lol.

[Timmytour]

TT, unlike his prediction for actual weather (which was wrong) he is merely stressing what anyone can see for themselves. The model's haven't a clue, see my latest posts RE the ens as an example.

I think when people quote qualified meteorologists it should not automatically create hostile responses assuming that those same people live and breath every word or view of that voice.

Anyway, trying to move away from this, the ECM 12Z looks rather interesting at +120 with ridging moving towards Iceland.

Hi Itsy... wasn't trying to diss Joe in any way...I respect what he is and appreciate that he can be and is wrong at times, like any qualified meteorologists. Espacially those who earn respect from attempting longer range forecasts where others do not dare tread.

And I love to read predictions of cold and snowy weather on its way, alwyas mindful of the source and that my expectations should lie well beneath my hopes.

However I did think your mention of it him was a little bit "gratuitous"... that sounds worse than it's meant to but I've read plenty of the guys on here put forward the theory that the models may be in a state of flux at the moment, but I guess I overreacted to memories of seeing posts with "Joe says this", and "Joe says that" about cold spells that never ended up arriving!

Anyway...onwards and forwards....there's real interest back in the models lately imo and real potential for what they could go onto show. Myself...I think that spectacular chart -eded- put up earlier will go on to become how the control sees things!

Edited January 2, 2013 by Timmytour

[Jayces]

Chin up everyone, we'll get there eventually...

Oooh might have snow for my birthday a few days later ;-)

[Cloud 10]

Chin up everyone, we'll get there eventually...

Only just outside the reliable timeframe as well.

[Rainy]

is that april lol.

Typical upside down weather..... A cold Spring just when the gardeners are sowing seeds. Then comes the rain for all summer and autumn....

[chris55]

Ian F on points West with some interesting thoughts as we head towards the end of Jan, he said "could get interesting, no time to go into depth, but potential for something profoundly colder"

This says to me the staff room chat at MET HQ is expecting this SSW and following collapse of the PV to deliver. Obviously at this range nothing is certain, but the monumental shift in weather patterns way above our head is a very good thing, as the model output at present is useless for cold.

[Duane S.]

The ECM has been changing on a regular basis so this run will probably go the same way as the rest of its recent post 168hrs outputs.

Its evolution from 168hrs onwards looks very suspect though and IMO its synoptic garbage. One for the cat litter tray.

Glad you said that Nick. By +216 I just looked at that chart and thought where the heck is that going to lead?? I couldn't even have attempted a guess at what +240 was going to show based on that. It didn't seem to make any sense.

I think by that time it had just completely lost its way.

[Bristawl Si]

Ian F on points West with some interesting thoughts as we head towards the end of Jan, he said "could get interesting, no time to go into depth, but potential for something profoundly colder"

This says to me the staff room chat at MET HQ is expecting this SSW and following collapse of the PV to deliver. Obviously at this range nothing is certain, but the monumental shift in weather patterns way above our head is a very good thing, as the model output at present is useless for cold.

Interestingly the "chance" of colder (and possibly snowier) weather 'landing' on these shores seems to be moving back from mid-Jan to late-Jan.

Predicting the weather for the UK in the longer term, eh - who'd want to bet on that?!

[SMU]

Well we've seen much much better but certainly not the end of the world on the ECM op tonight:

High pressure from the arctic starting to ridge towards the Greenland locale with slowly rising heights, amplified mid-atlantic, with further amplification just west of the states, and atlantic energy reducing significantly as the PV starts to move just west of Greenland (as suggested by 10-100mb profile), with the remaining atlantic energy digging SSE towards the med.

SK

Hi SK TBh I expected a better analysis- your clutching at straws- none of which exist.

Lets for one moment exclude the stratosphere talk & take what we have infront of us the most accurate peice of info we have then the day 10 chart is very poor.

* No Blocking anywhere.

* nop polar highs

* a 496 height polar vortex over Western Greenland sending relentless energy East

* A zonal flow across the atlantic with no ridging anywhere-

* 576 heights stretched East over Europe.

* the UK encapsulated in 4c air at 850- some 6/7 degrees above normal.

Call me scrooge, but another day down in this winter.- still no snow prospects within 8 days puts us on the cusp of the first half of winter snowless for the bulk of the UK....

That is shocking- especially against the expectation built up during autumn.....If the SSW / warmings dont deliver across the projected timeline- then its game over.

we have been here so many times in the past 10 years & on most occasions if lowland UK are snowless pre Jan 15th then the patterns dictate that on AVERAGE winter is already over.....

Scrooge.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Steve Murr

[The watcher]

It will be interesting to see what the ECM32 dayer has to say tomorrow and next week. Could be some tentative signs amongst its ensembles.

If you are taking 10+ day charts at face value, then yes, they are poor......for now.

Edited January 2, 2013 by The watcher

[nick sussex]

Glad you said that Nick. By +216 I just looked at that chart and thought where the heck is that going to lead?? I couldn't even have attempted a guess at what +240 was going to show based on that. It didn't seem to make any sense.

I think by that time it had just completely lost its way.

Yes it does show a rather bizarre pressure pattern to the north at that time and I'm fast losing confidence in any of the FI solutions especially from the ECM.

I doubt that ECM run will survive for long, I expect it will pull out another solution tomorrow morning.

[chris55]

Interestingly the "chance" of colder (and possibly snowier) weather 'landing' on these shores seems to be moving back from mid-Jan to late-Jan.

Predicting the weather for the UK in the longer term, eh - who'd want to bet on that?!

Depends who's forecasting it!!!

If this SSW and subsequent strat forecasts do propagate down and influence the NH trop patterns then we should see some cold. The timings of such events with regards to the propagation have been the unknown piece of the jigsaw. The research says anything from 20-45 days!! Although as I understand it a sudden response is also possible.

Chinio on the strat thread has said as much (with the pattern after the displacement being more interesting) so although the 15th ish has been the "first" possible date we could see a strat induced trop change this is just the one option. And as I said in my earlier post, the fact the Ian has mentioned it on the Points West forecast suggests the MET buzz is that this warming will have an effect, but maybe a little slower than we would have hoped.

[SMU]

It will be interesting to see what the ECM32 dayer has to say tomorrow and next week. Could be some tentative signs amongst its ensembles.

If you are taking 10+ day charts at face value, then yes, they are poor......for now.

Plus the other 9 inbetween......S

[Gustywind]

Lowland uk hasn't been snowless up to mid jan though. There was a fair bit from what I recall in Avon, Somerset and Wiltshire in early December if i remember right.

[Jason M]

Having looked through the charts tonight and the GFS ensembles I simply can't understand the comments about ECM tonight. Compared to yesterday things are moving forward nicely. Even tonight's ECM is showing signs of amplification.

The trends continue to be positive with more and more of the ensembles showing different scenarios. Taken as a a whole heights are tending to be progged as reducing to our south. GEM is interesting as its actually a fairly logical progression.

Jason

[SMU]

Having looked through the charts tonight and the GFS ensembles I simply can't understand the comments about ECM tonight. Compared to yesterday things are moving forward nicely. Even tonight's ECM is showing signs of amplification.

The trends continue to be positive with more and more of the ensembles showing different scenarios. Taken as a a whole heights are tending to be progged as reducing to our south. GEM is interesting as its actually a fairly logical progression.

Jason

HI Jason- can you post up some amplification charts of the ECM- because I think you will be hard pressed to find any.S

Lowland uk hasn't been snowless up to mid jan though. There was a fair bit from what I recall in Avon, Somerset and Wiltshire in early December if i remember right.

That represents a TINY percentile of the UK lowland- & it was VERY localised within a circumference of say 20 miles.S

[chris55]

Hi SK TBh I expected a better analysis- your clutching at straws- none of which exist.

Lets for one moment exclude the stratosphere talk & take what we have infront of us the most accurate peice of info we have then the day 10 chart is very poor.

* No Blocking anywhere.

* nop polar highs

* a 496 height polar vortex over Western Greenland sending relentless energy East

* A zonal flow across the atlantic with no ridging anywhere-

* 576 heights stretched East over Europe.

* the UK encapsulated in 4c air at 850- some 6/7 degrees above normal.

Call me scrooge, but another day down in this winter.- still no snow prospects within 8 days puts us on the cusp of the first half of winter snowless for the bulk of the UK....

That is shocking- especially against the expectation built up during autumn.....If the SSW / warmings dont deliver across the projected timeline- then its game over.

we have been here so many times in the past 10 years & on most occasions if lowland UK are snowless pre Jan 15th then the patterns dictate that on AVERAGE winter is already over.....

Scrooge.

Most UK winters of the last 20 years have been dominated by Westerlies Steve and a good majority of winters before this I should think, we need Rabbits out of hats to get proper cold to our shores and hopefully the SSW is winter 2012/13s rabbit!!!!

The lack of a frosty high has been evident so far this year and the so called "faux" cold such a system can produce can tilt the CET and peoples perception of how a winter feels.

Edited January 2, 2013 by chris55

[nick sussex]

Plus the other 9 inbetween......S

Steve you're making me seem like Mr Happy! I've been veering from grumpy to strangely optimistic at times over the last few days, perhaps the latter is denial! lol

I take your point re the ECM it does look generally pants but it's already been shredded for failing to meet suitable synoptic parameters!

I'd agree with you with the effects of the SSW, if that doesn't deliver then winter looks poor. Without that background warming the dross dished out by the models recently would be sending me over the edge!

[snowking]

Hi SK TBh I expected a better analysis- your clutching at straws- none of which exist.

Lets for one moment exclude the stratosphere talk & take what we have infront of us the most accurate peice of info we have then the day 10 chart is very poor.

* No Blocking anywhere.

* nop polar highs

* a 496 height polar vortex over Western Greenland sending relentless energy East

* A zonal flow across the atlantic with no ridging anywhere-

* 576 heights stretched East over Europe.

* the UK encapsulated in 4c air at 850- some 6/7 degrees above normal.

Call me scrooge, but another day down in this winter.- still no snow prospects within 8 days puts us on the cusp of the first half of winter snowless for the bulk of the UK....

That is shocking- especially against the expectation built up during autumn.....If the SSW / warmings dont deliver across the projected timeline- then its game over.

we have been here so many times in the past 10 years & on most occasions if lowland UK are snowless pre Jan 15th then the patterns dictate that on AVERAGE winter is already over.....

Scrooge.

Hi Steve.

Pretty obviously thats slightly straw clutching, but I disagree with some of that commentary.

Not necessarily blocking, but plenty of amplification from the Mid-Atlantic and East Pacific ridges (there is a Mid-Atlantic ridge which goes against the no ridging anywhere).

If you look through the final few frames, that 'relentless' energy is actually lowering over time into the atlantic, and the core of the PV lobe over Greenland is backing slowly west.

It should be noted that I am specifically discussing the +240 frame that was displayed below. As I said, not the greatest we've ever seen but certainly not the absolute worst.

Anti-Scrooge

[Weathizard]

Having looked through the charts tonight and the GFS ensembles I simply can't understand the comments about ECM tonight. Compared to yesterday things are moving forward nicely. Even tonight's ECM is showing signs of amplification.

The trends continue to be positive with more and more of the ensembles showing different scenarios. Taken as a a whole heights are tending to be progged as reducing to our south. GEM is interesting as its actually a fairly logical progression.

Jason

100% agree with you, I think some are still recovering from the massive failure we had early in the winter. It is frustrating what's been and gone but taking the ens and current charts at face value, they aren't THAT bad especially the GFS ens which have been gradually improving since Sunday. And as I said earlier I don't OP runs post 168 at the moment are even worth wasting your time to look at because as many have said SSW effects are hard to predict until the SSW occurs.

Have a nice evening guys

[mcweather]

Hi SK TBh I expected a better analysis- your clutching at straws- none of which exist.

Lets for one moment exclude the stratosphere talk & take what we have infront of us the most accurate peice of info we have then the day 10 chart is very poor.

* No Blocking anywhere.

* nop polar highs

* a 496 height polar vortex over Western Greenland sending relentless energy East

* A zonal flow across the atlantic with no ridging anywhere-

* 576 heights stretched East over Europe.

* the UK encapsulated in 4c air at 850- some 6/7 degrees above normal.

Call me scrooge, but another day down in this winter.- still no snow prospects within 8 days puts us on the cusp of the first half of winter snowless for the bulk of the UK....

That is shocking- especially against the expectation built up during autumn.....If the SSW / warmings dont deliver across the projected timeline- then its game over.

we have been here so many times in the past 10 years & on most occasions if lowland UK are snowless pre Jan 15th then the patterns dictate that on AVERAGE winter is already over.....

Scrooge.

Blimey Steve M throws in the towel.

Surely Steve that' most accurate piece of info that we have' is about as likely to verify as that other 'most accurate piece of info we had' showing 60mph easterlies for Dec15th.

There has already been lowland snow this winter just maybe not in your back yard.

Winter is never over by January 2nd or the 15th for that matter. 1947, 1953.1954 1955 1956, 1960, 1969 1978 1986 1991 AND 1996 all gave late winter (POST 15TH jAN) spells in various parts of he UK that most people would happily settle for this winter.