Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

[Allyw12]

Both 12ZGFS and 18Z GFS brought in -8C uppers from the east. Models toying around with various solutions but all look cold on the ground and some look snowy, and that's just for starters....

Thanks LS, I've learnt my lesson

[edo]

Thanks LS, I've learnt my lesson

Ally dont listen to busby.......... when it comes to the MT its look but dont listen!!

im off for a peek and an ignore

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thanks LS, I've learnt my lesson

No worries, the model thread output is way more volatile and meaningless than the models themselves

[edo]

hmmmm bizzare...........slightly more sensible over on TWO model thread but still a lot of negativity compared to output......pick out the usual suspects and you can see the potential as outlined by our own weather alumni...

There is even Possibility of wintry showers at start of the weekend in places meaning the potential of snow has moved a day nearer again so trend continues......

Only took until 9.30 am today for the 2 yr old to say again Daddy is it still not snowing.... I then realised our snowfalls were late night here so whilst got her sledging she has till not seen snowfall so i wish to request daytime falls from the god of the greenie high

[LomondSnowstorm]

It just keeps on sliding.....

[edo]

Slide to the white side... I likes it....got work in 7hrs and not sleepy I don't likes that after fortnight off

[Guest]

00z GFS starting to roll out...oh no it's all ten miles further east by T+24, winter's over!!

Oh dear, this insomnia is sending me delirious

[LomondSnowstorm]

00z GFS starting to roll out...oh no it's all ten miles further east by T+24, winter's over!!

Oh dear, this insomnia is sending me delirious

My sleeping patterns have been even more whacked out since the start of the holidays so I've ended up catching a few of the 00Zs live, during the more interesting periods like this. Nothing on the model thread is of any worth at this time moreso because the few posters left are generally either trolls, fatigued or blootered!

[Guest]

My sleeping patterns have been even more whacked out since the start of the holidays so I've ended up catching a few of the 00Zs live, during the more interesting periods like this. Nothing on the model thread is of any worth at this time moreso because the few posters left are generally either trolls, fatigued or blootered!

I'm neither trolling or blootered, but defo fatigued. I was sleeping earlier (after a good couple of hours of trying to get to sleep) but then the soon to be Mrs Catch woke me up. It's just as well she's cute :lol:

We were up seeing our new landlords earlier, can't wait to move in a fortnight but hope any decent snow holds off until after we've moved, I don't fancy being snowed out of the house but would love to be snowed in.

Fingers crossed for some stonking runs which actually end up bearing fruit, it would be good after all the teasing we've had.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm neither trolling or blootered, but defo fatigued. I was sleeping earlier (after a good couple of hours of trying to get to sleep) but then the soon to be Mrs Catch woke me up. It's just as well she's cute :lol:

We were up seeing our new landlords earlier, can't wait to move in a fortnight but hope any decent snow holds off until after we've moved, I don't fancy being snowed out of the house but would love to be snowed in.

Fingers crossed for some stonking runs which actually end up bearing fruit, it would be good after all the teasing we've had.

I think you might get away with that, just about, probably not quite 2009/10 levels at least by then.

I'd like to think that it'll just appear within 72 hours with only a bit of warning beforehand to reverse the December failure, and then run on for weeks. About time we had real cold this winter certainly.

[Guest]

I think you might get away with that, just about, probably not quite 2009/10 levels at least by then.

I'd like to think that it'll just appear within 72 hours with only a bit of warning beforehand to reverse the December failure, and then run on for weeks. About time we had real cold this winter certainly.

I can live without real cold, just give us some decent snow

When was the last time we got a quickie from nowhere with the cold, I can remember it happening at some point, not sure when though.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Also, I think I prefer this run so far, PV split looks better and high a bit nicer shaped too.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I can live without real cold, just give us some decent snow

When was the last time we got a quickie from nowhere with the cold, I can remember it happening at some point, not sure when though.

Hmm, not sure, most out of the blue events seem to be snowfalls but within already cold setups, like the M 8 fiasco or most of December 2009. The January 2011 northwesterly snowfall and a few others from that direction were pretty short notice but not all that long lasting or big for most people.

[Guest]

Also, I think I prefer this run so far, PV split looks better and high a bit nicer shaped too.

The cold air seems to be allergic to the UK and Ireland...

[LomondSnowstorm]

The cold air seems to be allergic to the UK and Ireland...

Yeah, shortwave issues to the west, GFS often overdoes these which is the positive because we just need a cleaner undercut to get a proper easterly. Euros will be interesting since ECM found a different way of stopping the easterly.

Gets there in the end though

Edited January 7, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Ruzzi]

Well I have to say, I'd be more than happy if things panned out like this ..... (FI ofcourse)

a good battleground scenario

with the cold eventually winning through ...

Which leads onto this absolute stonker in FI lala land...

But any evolution that involves a chart like this makes me very, very sceptical. The GFS has itself tied up in knots!

There is nothing certain at the moment beyond +T72. None of the models have even a semi-consistent take on the next few week's evolution. Its certainly going to be interesting if nothing else

[lorenzo]

Yeah, shortwave issues to the west, GFS often overdoes these which is the positive because we just need a cleaner undercut to get a proper easterly. Euros will be interesting since ECM found a different way of stopping the easterly.

Gets there in the end though

..and East.. !

GFS having a shortwave party this morning , spewing them out almost anywhere, it has come out with the weather model equivalent of shortwave measles.

Final three frames of ECM looking good for Easterly influence, will they count down to T+0 this time..

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I guess winter's back on again the morn then?

Edited January 7, 2013 by scottish skier

[Guest]

I guess winter's back on again the morn then?

The mood in the model thread is up and down faster than a Port Glasgow woman's knickers...expect this to get worse as the day goes on.

Still too much energy needing lost from the PV??

[Guest]

Off on a tangent here but can any new members or longer term lurkers pop up a post today, we don't bite and you can't do worse than some of us on here, including myself, chief kilted spammer that I am Normal rules of not keeping on topic if at all possible apply (i.e. anything goes, just ask Hairy Celt :lol: )

[Northernlights]

Another calm benign start to the day.Overcast and currently 8.0c Grass is starting to show a bit of greeness now Wonder how long it will last? Still feels like something is brewing as with all this cloud the days are very dark.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Normal rules of not keeping on topic if at all possible apply

You can go off topic completely; just add a random model output chart tae the bottom and yer laughin.

[Guest]

You can go off topic completely; just add a random model output chart tae the bottom and yer laughin.

I see the price of cheese is quite stable today:

[LomondSnowstorm]

You can go off topic completely; just add a random model output chart tae the bottom and yer laughin.

Wait, this thread is meant to have a topic?

[Ravelin]

Wait, this thread is meant to have a topic?

Topic or no topic at least this thread retains a certain degree of sanity. I don't know why I ever decided to sneak a peak in the model thread but now I have I'm addicted, but oh my, isn't it a rollercoaster ride. Even with my very basic knowledge of meteorology the tendency for some to latch onto a fantastic looking chart way, way beyond the point of reliability and then to be despondent when it changes a day or two later is just baffling.

Much as I'd love to see some more snow this winter, and some heavy stuff at that, we'll get what we get and no amount of staring at charts will make what we wish for happen. It's only 7th Jan, the models are only really reliable 3-4 days ahead, we've plenty of winter left!

Ravelin