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Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Death by snaw. Muh ha ha

h850t850eu.png

No bad pub run.

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

Liking the pincer movement :-)

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

gfsnh-0-216.png?18

cold.gif

That's the holy grail.

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Allyw12 Contributor

Allyw12

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
Posted (edited)

gfsnh-0-216.png?18

cold.gif

That's the holy grail.

It would be nice if it came true :)

Edited by Allyw12
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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

cold.gif

That's the holy grail.

Please make scarifies to the following altar in the next few days. Thanks.

ULLRPODFull.jpg

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Please make scarifies to the following altar in the next few days. Thanks.

ULLRPODFull.jpg

Will do. Seems to be working so far, ensemble mean at +180:

gensnh-21-0-180.png?18

gensnh-21-1-180.png?18

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

oh goody!.... all tickety-boo in the MOD once more! Beautiful charts to look at but......would love a few more of the same before I.......... SCREAM!!!!laugh.png

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

For those who wake up tomorrow and perhaps don't catch this post in the model thread:

Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region; perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period).

Also notes high 'Shannon entropy', suggestive of a hugely challenging situation regarding shortwaves and precipitation details. Nonetheless the crucial detail is that, in the longer range, it looks as though the blocking to the north is likely to hold and build into the 10-15 day period after which we have the peak of the SSW propagation from the end of January into February. This is getting very, very interesting...

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Guest

Posted
Posted

For those who wake up tomorrow and perhaps don't catch this post in the model thread:

Also notes high 'Shannon entropy', suggestive of a hugely challenging situation regarding shortwaves and precipitation details. Nonetheless the crucial detail is that, in the longer range, it looks as though the blocking to the north is likely to hold and build into the 10-15 day period after which we have the peak of the SSW propagation from the end of January into February. This is getting very, very interesting...

Wooo hooo, it's full scale rampede time. We'll be fine as long as no-one says "it's nailded" or makes reference to their new sledge/snow shovel.

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

Looks cauld, wi snaw. How cauld? Nae sure. How much snaw? Nae sure either. Cauld wi snaw though.

t850Midlothian.png

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mistyqueen Experienced

mistyqueen

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
Posted

Wooo hooo, it's full scale rampede time. We'll be fine as long as no-one says "it's nailded" or makes reference to their new sledge/snow shovel.

I dinnae hae a snaw shovel....does that mean......? good.gif

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

I dinnae hae a snaw shovel....does that mean......? good.gif

Don't even think about going out and buying one.

We'll tell you when you're allowed.

wink.png

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

GFS continuing it's trend of slowly opening up the freezer door, follows on well from last nights stupendous offerings on the 18z.

ECM again sticking with the flat pattern this morning, whereas looking at the EC32 update it presents a solid cold signal for weeks 2 14-20, and 3 21-27, showing an easterly cold influence.

It's going to be a fun transition from what has been a mild and unremarkable period into some good proper winter..

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted (edited)

GFS continuing it's trend of slowly opening up the freezer door, follows on well from last nights stupendous offerings on the 18z.

ECM again sticking with the flat pattern this morning, whereas looking at the EC32 update it presents a solid cold signal for weeks 2 14-20, and 3 21-27, showing an easterly cold influence.

It's going to be a fun transition from what has been a mild and unremarkable period into some good proper winter..

Yesterdays 12Z ensembles showed the ECM control to be on the mild side towards the end. Could be the same case here.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

And of course we still have the impact of this to watch for (courtesy of AWD on the strat thread)

post-9421-0-54664300-1357632377_thumb.jp

Edited by scottish skier
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Ruzzi Experienced

Ruzzi

Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
Posted

Looks cauld, wi snaw. How cauld? Nae sure. How much snaw? Nae sure either. Cauld wi snaw though.

t850Midlothian.png

interesting how for sunday 13th - tuesday 15th, the op is actually on the milder half of the ensembles. I was quite content with the op in the close to medium term however it does show decent potential for it to be colder still with a good chunk of the ensemble members trending towards -8/-9 T850's for this 3 day period. It's certainly getting very interesting now. I'm just hoping that we can get a nice wee covering of snow from this coupled with some decent cold so that in the event of any transitional milder uppers passing through, we can still hold onto some good surface cold.

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

A very reasoned view on this thread this morning (as usual) whilst the usual suspects are already walking the plank in the model thread.

Very dreich and dark once again here but should brighten up later on, and turn a little cooler.

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tempestwatch Explorer

tempestwatch

Posted
  • Location: Newbury and Saint Laurent de Cerdans (66) France
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/cold in winter, hot and sunny in summer
  • Location: Newbury and Saint Laurent de Cerdans (66) France
Posted

A very reasoned view on this thread this morning (as usual) whilst the usual suspects are already walking the plank in the model thread.

Very dreich and dark once again here but should brighten up later on, and turn a little cooler.

There are a few I am afraid that jump from run to run and take each one as gospel whether it is good or not, cannot understand this especially when there are such fluctuations in even in the mid term.
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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted (edited)

There are a few I am afraid that jump from run to run and take each one as gospel whether it is good or not, cannot understand this especially when there are such fluctuations in even in the mid term.

Bipolar? I don't mean Arctic and Antarctic either, but more along the lines of....

Bipolar disorder

Manic depression; Bipolar affective disorder

Bipolar disorder is a condition in which people go back and forth between periods of a very good or irritable mood and depression. The "mood swings" between mania and depression can be very quick.

Now whether some of the posters, some of the models, or a bit of both are suffering from this I'll leave for you to decide.

unsure.png

Ravelin

Edited by Ravelin
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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

Gie us an S...S!

Gie us an N...N!

Gie us an A...A!

Gie us an W..W!

Whit does it spell?

prectypeuktopo.png

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Northernlights Maestro

Northernlights

Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
Posted

Another dreich morning here too with a fair bit of rain overnight a fresh south west wind and currently 7.5c

My local forecast on netweather has a cool down from tomorrow and a potential ice day on Friday with the following 10 days being potential ice daysas well with occasional snow. Looks like we"ll get rid of the mud and the animals will find the less humid air beneficial as well. Don"t know what all the fuss is about in the model thread!!!!!!

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Poots Apprentice

Poots

Posted
  • Location: Peebles, Scottish Borders, 168m asl
  • Location: Peebles, Scottish Borders, 168m asl
Posted

11c here at present, dull, damp and almost muggy! Not the kind of January I know and love so far......but hopefully that's going to change!

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Stormeh Accomplished

Stormeh

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
Posted

06z is very sexy, I wish I was in the east though :D

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

Jeez Louise! If only! That 06z run was astonishing. Wish the ECM was heading in the same direction tho'. We can only watch and wait but it cannot be denied that this is model watching at its most exciting! I wonder what the viewing totals will be for the 12'zs?

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted (edited)

Jeez Louise! If only! That 06z run was astonishing. Wish the ECM was heading in the same direction tho'. We can only watch and wait but it cannot be denied that this is model watching at its most exciting! I wonder what the viewing totals will be for the 12'zs?

The ECM wasn't that bad. Chopping and changing a lot with shortwaves. Messy mainly. Canny complain aboot this e.g. at T120

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20130108/00/ecmt850.120.png

Beyond which cauld is no far away and its FI.

00Z ensembles London surface T.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

It's gonnae be cauld. Mean remains chilly right oot. Watch oot fir snaw.

Edited by scottish skier
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

While I'd usually be highly concerned by the ECM, it has shown a quite astonishing lack of consistency in the last few days, perhaps moreso than other models, flipping from a very cold sustained easterly to holding the shortwave over us for 4 days to high pressure in situ to flat, over the last 6 or. 7 runs just. Be wary of it yes, but there's no reason to assume that it is right just yet.

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Cheggers Accomplished

Cheggers

Posted
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
Posted

Morning all, been a few gash days here, dark, wet and just horrible. I see things looking a tad nippy by the weekend.

Sledges at the ready maybe.... shhhhhhhh

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