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Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
in Regional

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Allyw12 Contributor

Allyw12

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
Posted (edited)

can I just check the cold starting this week/weekend is not do with the SSW?

Edited by Allyw12
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

can I just check the cold starting this week/weekend is not do with the SSW?

That's very much up for debate, I believe that it is actually linked to an immediate tropospheric response as we saw in February 2009, but the main effect of the SSW will not be seen until the final third of the month into February.

UN144-21.GIF?08-17

Those sacrifices I made to the norse gods last night must've worked then...

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over_the_rainbow Enthusiast

over_the_rainbow

Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
Posted

I think the finer detail of who/where could get snaw at the weekend will move around and as ever will end up with the whole forum probably curtain twitching and winking out the window!

NB - Perthonians better be praying and making offerings just to be on the safe side!

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November13 Community Regular

November13

Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
Posted

I think the finer detail of who/where could get snaw at the weekend will move around and as ever will end up with the whole forum probably curtain twitching and winking out the window!

NB - Perthonians better be praying and making offerings just to be on the safe side!

Which is why the BBC are being very coy about commiting themselves more than 2 days ahead. Everything will be different come Friday morning.
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cscrim Apprentice

cscrim

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
Posted

I think the finer detail of who/where could get snaw at the weekend will move around and as ever will end up with the whole forum probably curtain twitching and winking out the window!

NB - Perthonians better be praying and making offerings just to be on the safe side!

i dont like my neighbours dog, happy to sacrafice that in this instance.

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

I really wasn't expecting another good run following on from this morning's 06z. Oh how weird, just as I type, yet another flock of geese overhead. That's the second today! Anyway, I don't think I will have the courage to watch the ECM unfold tonight - even from behind the sofa!

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Allyw12 Contributor

Allyw12

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
Posted

I think the finer detail of who/where could get snaw at the weekend will move around and as ever will end up with the whole forum probably curtain twitching and winking out the window!

NB - Perthonians better be praying and making offerings just to be on the safe side!

OTR I will be praying tonight, not sure who to sacrifice yet :D

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

The car thermo was reading 10ºC when we came home from work, it shouldn't be showing anything like that for a while now :)

I would sacrifice the cats for this to come off, but I don't think Mrs Catch would be too happy with me :(

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November13 Community Regular

November13

Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
Posted

Pheewwww!!! If only!

h850t850eu.png

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over_the_rainbow Enthusiast

over_the_rainbow

Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
Posted

Brrr we could all be in the freezer if FI had its way then Nov?

Glad to here of many planned sacrifices - I may plan my own ceremony.......maybe OH's xbox.......

The mood in the MT is like something else!! Happy pills are clearly being handed out like smarties.

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Bullseye Community Regular

Bullseye

Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
Posted

Gfs looks great then? Question by the inexperienced as this looks good does this weekend and beyond affect Scotland more so Glasgow area? Thanks.

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pdiddy Enthusiast

pdiddy

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted

Gfs looks great then? Question by the inexperienced as this looks good does this weekend and beyond affect Scotland more so Glasgow area? Thanks.

I think that initially, the further north and west you are, the less the chance of snow. Later in FI, it would be north east to get the snow, but Glasgow would probably join in then.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Another COBRA run from the GFS, amazingly backed up by the UKMO and GEM (not exactly, but UKMO brings in retrogression and GEM a longer lived and very potent easterly).

You just don't get better synoptics than these:

gfsnh-0-276.png?12

BUT, I'd still urge caution. We'll have to see what the ECM says still and even if it does back this up we can still only really say the initial easterly is likely to happen with that much confidence. Friday 12Zs for me will be the most critical runs, as we'll have the modelling of the shortwave pretty much nailed down (with a better view of the areas likely to be affected by snowfall on the mesoscale models) and sufficient confidence to declare whether we're going to get the height build in the right area or not. If both of these are looking good, and that remains a big if, what we're looking at is something very special, and almost certainly the coldest spell of the last.....3 yearslaugh.png

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snowy owl Community Regular

snowy owl

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
Posted

Cracking charts, all eyes to the ECM later.....oh i'm getting very nervous.

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

The mood in the MT is like something else!! Happy pills are clearly being handed out like smarties.

Yes OTR, but it may be a different kind of pill being handed out after the ECM! A bit of a reality check I see as the ensembles are not as supportive as we would have wished. Might watch the ECM unfold now as I am better prepared for some disappointment!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Yes OTR, but it may be a different kind of pill being handed out after the ECM! A bit of a reality check I see as the ensembles are not as supportive as we would have wished. Might watch the ECM unfold now as I am better prepared for some disappointment!

I haven't seen any of the ensembles for further north, London's is out on Meteociel and it looks fine. GEFS control isn't the prettiest but some of the others looked not bad to me.

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over_the_rainbow Enthusiast

over_the_rainbow

Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
Posted

Yes OTR, but it may be a different kind of pill being handed out after the ECM! A bit of a reality check I see as the ensembles are not as supportive as we would have wished. Might watch the ECM unfold now as I am better prepared for some disappointment!

..... hiding.gif

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

I haven't seen any of the ensembles for further north, London's is out on Meteociel and it looks fine. GEFS control isn't the prettiest but some of the others looked not bad to me.

A few more have the Atlantic coming in towards the end of high resolution, after that though most runs seem to trend back towards cold. The vortex gets mangled in all of them so all that an Atlantic return would be is that we'd have to rely on the Arctic high ridging into Greenland and shunting the jet further south. You'd still get proper reverse zonality in that instance too, it'd just take a bit longer. Mean goes up to around -1C for here by +192 but then back down to -5C after +300.

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

..... hiding.gif

I don't know if that is supposed to be you or me, but if it's you, move over!!laugh.png

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over_the_rainbow Enthusiast

over_the_rainbow

Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
Posted

I don't know if that is supposed to be you or me, but if it's you, move over!!laugh.png

Ha! I was thinking of us both! Luckily it's a kilted thread sized sofa.

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

Ha! I was thinking of us both! Luckily it's a kilted thread sized sofa.

Like so?

sofa300.jpg

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted (edited)

ECH1-96.GIF?08-0

ECH0-96.GIF?08-0

That'll do nicely

Also, similar to the GFS at +120, -8C uppers into the east of Scotland, probably snow moving in through the day on Sunday into western areas across the central belt with snow showers in the east through the night on Saturday

ECH1-120.GIF?08-0

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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cscrim Apprentice

cscrim

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
Posted

damn neighbour has just been at door asking if i had seen his dog. erm dog? what dog?

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

SS sacrificially smashes another bottle of cold beer in front of the shrine to Ullr.

Well - sacrifices must be made, even ones as great as this.

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BurntFishTrousers Seasoned

BurntFishTrousers

Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk
Posted

damn neighbour has just been at door asking if i had seen his dog. erm dog? what dog?

The one you made into a Hot Dog?nea.gif

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