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Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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Snooz Newbie

Snooz

Posted
  • Location: Kemnay, Aberdeenshire AB51 - 135m/440ft asl
  • Location: Kemnay, Aberdeenshire AB51 - 135m/440ft asl
Posted

Morning.. have been lurking intermittently and enjoying your summaries of the M(ad)T - haven't been in there the whole season so far this year angel.gif haven't needed entertainment, it's great in here

- thanks SS for the link to the Strat thread.. noo that's interesting :)

Ravelin was it you who suggested the Football Forecast Model?... whoever it was it looks bang on to me - crap for the footie starting this Sunday but good for the caul' lovers, mebbeees anyway ;)

Interesting times ahead and SS would you stop with those charts that's just teasing!! -- j/k keep 'em coming right up to T+12 please! ..

<OT> Congrats Catch, belated Happy Birthday BMW, enjoy your trip BFT...

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted

Ravelin was it you who suggested the Football Forecast Model?... whoever it was it looks bang on to me - crap for the footie starting this Sunday but good for the caul' lovers, mebbeees anyway tease.gif

Yeah, and actually for once I'd rather we don't get it too cold this weekend. Eldest son's team are scheduled to play a cup game on Sat afternoon, this will be the third time it has been scheduled. It's against a higher league team, but given they played another team from the higher league last weekend in a friendly (so doesn't count for the Football Forecast Model), and won, I think they have a good chance of winning this match. At a later point in the season it might be different, depending on falling fitness, fixture pile-up etc.

Ravelin

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted (edited)

GFS 06Z ensembles

Good agreement between the control and op. Lots of members suggesting the initial arrival of the cauld may be colder than the op suggests (I believe Ruzzi noted this earlier).

t850Midlothian.png

Edited by scottish skier
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mistyqueen Experienced

mistyqueen

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
Posted

OK, who farted in the freezer and blew the clouds away? Clear blue sky here now, and sunshine on the mountain tops....but getting colder! yahoo.gif

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Ruzzi Experienced

Ruzzi

Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
Posted

GFS 06Z ensembles

Good agreement between the control and op. Lots of members suggesting the initial arrival of the cauld may be colder than the op suggests (I believe Ruzzi noted this earlier).

t850Midlothian.png

Yes SS, even more evident on this run, than the 00Z.

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Ruzzi Experienced

Ruzzi

Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
Posted (edited)

My attention is increasingly turning towards saturday evening/sunday with regards to snowfall ....

06_123_preciptype.png?cb=303

Max. ground temp at the same timeframe

06_123_uk2mtmp.png?cb=303

Dew points looking ok too

06_123_ukdp.png?cb=303

And thickness:

06_123_ukthickness.png?cb=303

528 DAM covering all of scotland except the extreme southwest.

The GFS has been fairly consistent in showing this type of scenario for the weekend. It is still 5 days away though so still not treating it as a stick on yet.

Edited by ruzzi (snowboy)
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BleakMidwinter Community Regular

BleakMidwinter

Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
Posted

Where's the button to click for "oooooOOOOOOooooh! I totally like this post!!!!" please?

For Ruzziboy's post showing charts for Saturday Night/ Sunday Morning - yes pleeease! :D

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Allyw12 Contributor

Allyw12

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
Posted

I don't know about anybody else but I’m really trying to contain myself, I’ve not even said anything at work about possible S*** just in case. Plus this morning’s overload of positivity for the models is starting to tip me over the edge blink.png

How much longer before we can go into ramp mode biggrin.png?

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

I don't know about anybody else but I’m really trying to contain myself, I’ve not even said anything at work about possible S*** just in case. Plus this morning’s overload of positivity for the models is starting to tip me over the edge blink.png

How much longer before we can go into ramp mode biggrin.png?

For the weekend we're almost at justifiable ramp mode, for later on we're very much uncertain, but with generally positive signs for cold and snaw prospects longer term as well.

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

How much longer before we can go into ramp mode biggrin.png?

You can go oot tae the garage and have a wee look at yer ramp. However, keep the cover over it and the garage doors shut for now anyway.

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

Oh good god the sun is out!!!

Ha ha, nice one. You had me going for a minute there.

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Allyw12 Contributor

Allyw12

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
Posted

You can go oot tae the garage and have a wee look at yer ramp. However, keep the cover over it and the garage doors shut for now anyway.

I might just do that :)

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November13 Community Regular

November13

Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
Posted

I have East League cross country at Broxburn Saturday. I warned the guys to expect heavy snow and ice . I hope I am right. Although it will be really cold with running shorts and a vest!acute.gif

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Snooz Newbie

Snooz

Posted
  • Location: Kemnay, Aberdeenshire AB51 - 135m/440ft asl
  • Location: Kemnay, Aberdeenshire AB51 - 135m/440ft asl
Posted

Ruzzi!! OMG those charts.. almost drooling material :)

Yeah, and actually for once I'd rather we don't get it too cold this weekend. Eldest son's team are scheduled to play a cup game on Sat afternoon, this will be the third time it has been scheduled. It's against a higher league team, but given they played another team from the higher league last weekend in a friendly (so doesn't count for the Football Forecast Model), and won, I think they have a good chance of winning this match. At a later point in the season it might be different, depending on falling fitness, fixture pile-up etc.

Also going for a 3rd time scheduled cup game on Sunday, but our lot've nae actually played for about 12+ weeks (lost count now) so fitness and pile-up issues will also be an issue at some point now too - anyway it's gonna be fun whatever happens eh! You may be luckier with the Saturday fixture I was kinda hoping that it would be later Sunday this 'excitement' would start however Ruzzi seems to think earlier in weekend now LOL.. we will see

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Slightly different, but still snow for eastern areas for Saturday:

prectypeuktopo.png

Southern England does well in this run also.

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A Winter's Tale Experienced

A Winter's Tale

Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
Posted

The afternoons are now starting to get slowly brighter. A fine January afternoon with a return to clear skies and some winter's sunshine. A colder few days coming up aswell, plus a possibly interesting weekend for Scotland. GFS 06z was another cracking run but there seems to be a little negativity in the MT about a less cold trend in the ECM. It seems like the period 120-168hrs is where we see the subtle, but significant synoptic variations across the models and these do have implications on how succesful we are in getting HLB but it's far from cast in stone, and even still we're talking about HLB potential at around 13-18th January - which still seems quite early in relation to the recent SSW so the whole sage will probably continue later into January and also into February.

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BurntFishTrousers Seasoned

BurntFishTrousers

Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk
Posted

Full blown RAMP

Airport-ramp-0004-2.jpg

Slightly different, but still snow for eastern areas for Saturday:

prectypeuktopo.png

Southern England does well in this run also.

Woo-haa! Check oot a' that pink stuff oot east over the sea - exactly where am headed :-D

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cscrim Apprentice

cscrim

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
Posted

have i missed something colder being expected tonight? gritter just gone down the street here speading. huh.png

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Hard to say at this stage, but we're certainly on the edge of some decent easterly convective snowfall as well. Very slight movement northward would help:

gfsnh-0-108.png?12

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Hard to say at this stage, but we're certainly on the edge of some decent easterly convective snowfall as well. Very slight movement northward would help:

gfsnh-0-108.png?12

Maybe along the lines of this

UW96-21.GIF

drinks.gif

Also, shortwave from the northwest on Sunday night, precipitation moving eastwards= snowmaggedon Monday rush hour:

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

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Allyw12 Contributor

Allyw12

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
Posted

Maybe along the lines of this

UW96-21.GIF

drinks.gif

Also, shortwave from the northwest on Sunday night, precipitation moving eastwards= snowmaggedon Monday rush hour:

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

Looks good but could we push it a bit further east :)

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November13 Community Regular

November13

Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
Posted

have i missed something colder being expected tonight? gritter just gone down the street here speading. huh.png

I think it will be below freezing so they will be spreading in case of ice. No chance of snow tonight.
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Looks good but could we push it a bit further east smile.png

Precipitation detail is tough to pin down, but potential for snow right through from Saturday morning out to, whenever the run is up to at the moment.

The uppers by this stage, considering the frontal nature of that snowfall, are magnificent:

h850t850eu.png

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A Winter's Tale Experienced

A Winter's Tale

Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
Posted

A classic example of how volatile the entire situation is - big upgrade for English snow prospects this weekend aswell as snow prospects for western areas on Monday. Both UKMO and GFS 12zs look better than recent ECM runs with regards to blocking in the Atlantic towards Greeland/Iceland. Importnat ECM 12z.

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