South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 6th 2013>

[gottolovethisweather]

thursday northerly flow

mainly dry

poss fog anglia and essex

temps around 8 degrees

thursday night

the odd shower

north easterly flow

around 5 degrees

this is hard work arrrrrhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

friday

showers some heavy

west-south westerly flow

5-7 degrees

horrid day yuk

I WANT TO SEE THE UPDATED FAX CHART FOR SATURDAY NOW.

[john pike]

still waiting sunday

got a feeling that will be very nice

[john pike]

i want sunday i want sunday

[steveinsussex]

i urge caution

[Great Plum]

i want sunday i want sunday

You'll love it...

[john pike]

keeps the south and south east under a brisk easterly flow

528 dam air over the whole of the uk

looks dry but poss odd showers throughout the day

this to me looks like the front to our east passes through us on saturday night

looks good for some reasonable snow from that

notice atlantic blocked

this will be cold and be lucky to hit 3 degrees and that would be maximum

[gottolovethisweather]

i urge caution

Always the best way when it comes to snow but there appears to be an undeniable trend for this weekend's activity. The MeO aren't exactly convinced with regard to the first shot. However, my interest is in the period from the 12th to the15th at the current time.

[80sWeather]

Dear lord,buy me a 4 x 4.......

[gottolovethisweather]

this will be cold and be lucky to hit 3 degrees and that would be maximum

For christs sake, don't look at this then.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

[Ice Day]

Flippin 'eck, just when you thought it couldn't get any better, Rampkin turns up back on the regional. Epic day!

John P - how's the blood pressure?

[john pike]

For christs sake, don't look at this then.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

hi gt

sorry mate

was trying for the whole of the se including coastlines etc the 3 degree max is being generous

i have seen the gfs 18z

wow

[Eskimo]

Came back from a rubbish day at work praying that something good was going to end my evening, thank god that happened!

[gottolovethisweather]

keeps the south and south east under a brisk easterly flow

528 dam air over the whole of the uk

looks dry but poss odd showers throughout the day

this to me looks like the front to our east passes through us on saturday night

looks good for some reasonable snow from that

notice atlantic blocked

this will be cold and be lucky to hit 3 degrees and that would be maximum

And at this point I feel it is worth requoting the following.

• Breaking down the ingredients into the prospects of wintry precipitation, I would hint at the 11th January being largely a rain event at this timescale. However, from the 12th right through to the 15th January look the most likely dates to deliver the SNOW that most of us crave. I am in particular, closely following the 12th January.
  

[john pike]

Flippin 'eck, just when you thought it couldn't get any better, Rampkin turns up back on the regional. Epic day!

John P - how's the blood pressure?

hi ice

that was hard work

very nice to put snow on my first fax chart for a while

saturday night at present looking good

[steveinsussex]

Hmm was right to urge caution

some bad runs in there

[gottolovethisweather]

hi gt

sorry mate

was trying for the whole of the se including coastlines etc the 3 degree max is being generous

i have seen the gfs 18z

wow

Whatever John, doesn't matter regarding the Temps at this range. Just stick with following the 528DAM line as you often suggest.

Besides, I'm looking even further ahead of the Fax charts, not exactly good pratice, but the model suites are trending towards a most interesting mid January at this stage.

Edited January 8, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

And at this point I feel it is worth requoting the following.

• Breaking down the ingredients into the prospects of wintry precipitation, I would hint at the 11th January being largely a rain event at this timescale. However, from the 12th right through to the 15th January look the most likely dates to deliver the SNOW that most of us crave. I am in particular, closely following the 12th January.
  

looking godd mate

note the fax has a very weak atlantic

keep looking east

also this is not the ssw event this is at present a starter to the main event

[yamkin]

Hi Rampkin nice to see you back,has the council had any weather updates recently? I know you get updates quite often and with the BBC etc hinting at something cold and white coming soon Fri/Sat I hoped you could add to the growing numbers on NW crossing their fingers with a little ramp

MetO say the temps will drop fast into the weekend, but are on the fence regarding snow. The reason for this is because there is a very tight budget on gritting and they really don't want to forecast too early for snow right now which is understandable.

[steveinsussex]

always a spanner in the works, short term not too bad but will see what tomorrow brings with the GFS ensembles

[Keraunic]

Back in The Swich and its very mild and drizzling with rain. And....I just saw (about 23:20) a flash of lightning to the SE. Very high up but no thunder.

[gottolovethisweather]

always a spanner in the works, short term not too bad but will see what tomorrow brings with the GFS ensembles

The only spanner in the works is the next three days and thereafter things will get progressively colder. Who, when and how much snow falls is yet to be determined.

Edited January 8, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Hammer]

always a spanner in the works, short term not too bad but will see what tomorrow brings with the GFS ensembles

Not to dismiss the ensembles but they chop and change considerably, I'd consider them but as we saw at 12z almost total agreement on models and good ECM ens, 18z not so good from GFS ensembles doesn't necessarily mean all downhill.

[Ice Day]

looking godd mate

note the fax has a very weak atlantic

keep looking east

also this is not the ssw event this is at present a starter to the main event

Surely, with synoptics this good the SSW event must be having a quicker than expected effect?

[yamkin]

still waiting sunday

got a feeling that will be very nice

It will be amazing

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=317&y=150&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

the 18z in the reliable timeframe is not an outlier and colder than the 12z

mean around -10

on the 13th

the 14th is fi so expect this to be the date to watch

i expect the mean to drop again on the 14th tomorrow

cant wait for fax updates tomorrow night