South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 6th 2013>

[Bluebreezer54]

It will be amazing

Its good to have you back Yamkin !!

[john pike]

Surely, with synoptics this good the SSW event must be having a quicker than expected effect?

hi ice

from what i can see this is just a winter set up due to weak atlantic and southerly jet

if you look at the charts to our north east this should be what the ssw will show

now imagine that getting here

[mulzy]

Yamkin! Good to see you here!

8.9C and Drizzle

Edited January 9, 2013 by mulzy

[john pike]

now on the 13th the mean is touching -10

on the 14th there is a spread so fi is there

fi means it can CONTINUE the cold air

or it MAY warm up

that is why fi is set when the graphs spread

look at the control run (the blue run)

that is showing temps around 15 degrees on the 17th - n

now click here

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=319&y=151&run=6&runpara=0&ext=1&type=0

check where that was on the 06z run

if people wish to believe fi-good luck with that

[john pike]

my ramp chart tonight is a what happens in the next frame or two

[john pike]

Indeed. Anyway - Happy birthday fella!

I'm assuming the models factored in all the candles on your cake when they forecast the second strat warming event

And welcome back Yamkin

thanks q

if the models did that there would be a heatwave

[Sussex Jules]

Aww happy birthday John and look at the charts we got in especially for you.

[john pike]

thankyou jules

[john pike]

hi ian

i see you looking

could you clarify something for me

the fax on saturday night shows a front running through the south east

would that not be a possible snow event for here?

i know things are confusing at present but would love your feedback

[yamkin]

thanks q

if the models did that there would be a heatwave

Happy Birthday JP and for starters, your first present is the snow event this weekend

[Neilsouth]

Hah I wondered if it would be a bad sign that Yamkin wasn't here the last cold spell we were due to have!

But just as last time I am due to go into Hospital right before a Cold Spell, Wierd eh!

Damn OP

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Happy Birthday John

[john pike]

Happy Birthday JP and for starters, your first present is the snow event this weekend

thanks yamks

cheers surrey

[yamkin]

Night all

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

just so people can see what i am thinking from saturday 12 to sunday 12

hover over 96 then 120

you will see a front over the north east of us

this then drops over us and that is after the cold air gets here

that to me would be snow

more on this tomorrow

goodnight yamks

[Buzzit]

Happy Birthday JP

Just a note in case anyone does not know

On the following link if you change the part where "run=12" to 0,6, or 18 you get the lastest ensemble output for that run time

http://www.meteociel...=0&type=0&ext=1

Also if you change the part where "ext=1" to a value of 0 then it blows up the next 7 days so easier to see the short term prognosis

Edited January 9, 2013 by Buzzit

[john pike]

thanks buzzit

[Bluebreezer54]

Happy Birthday JP, and thanks for all the fax charts, they actually make sense to me when accompanied by your explanations. Good work fella.

[john pike]

hi bluebreezer

thanks for your kind words

now lets see whether these charts stay as awesome tomorrow

fingers crossed

[Met4Cast]

http://www.meteociel...arte=2000&ech=0

just so people can see what i am thinking from saturday 12 to sunday 12

hover over 96 then 120

you will see a front over the north east of us

this then drops over us and that is after the cold air gets here

that to me would be snow

more on this tomorrow

goodnight yamks

I suspect we'd see snow showers developing in that Easterly flow too with the cold air coming over the relatively warm North Sea and low heights close enough to add forcing.

A very interesting few days coming up! I'm still not convinced Saturday will be an all rain event, can't wait until that comes into High Res model range!

Happy Birthday!

Edited January 9, 2013 by Daniel Smith

[essexweather]

Much improved UKMO and GFS for Sunday... a decent NE'ly flow bringing snow showers well inland.

Saturday still a bit of a question mark - looks too mild up above for snow

[TheBigFreeze]

after the early morning runs are we still looking at snow for the end of this weekend? I can't take a proper look on my phone?? cheers

[Great Plum]

Hi Big Freeze,

For Sunday, yes... It still looks good longer term - gfs op run a little milder but the ensembles trend cold!

ECM looking good too both short and mid term so far!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

[abruzzi spur]

Morning all

Forecast on BBC Breakfast (Carol Kirkwood) said likely to be sleet on eastern coasts on Sunday with snow for 'eastern coastal counties' once you come a few miles inland. 'But not enough to build a snowman' was the quote. Leaving aside that this latter point is not the most technical piece of forecasting I have ever heard, the details will probably change a bit given we are looking 4 days away! The trend is clearly there though and finding its tentative way into public forecasts, which is probably all we could expect at this stage. BBC local 'forecast' only goes to Friday.

Some interesting days to come I think!

AS

[abruzzi spur]

MetO say the temps will drop fast into the weekend, but are on the fence regarding snow. The reason for this is because there is a very tight budget on gritting and they really don't want to forecast too early for snow right now which is understandable.

Yamkin, welcome back, it feels like winter now! Is your signature:

It is wise to have survival supplies to hand where budget permits

part of the advice from Croydon Council or is it your personal view only?!

AS