South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 6th 2013>

[etched Chaos]

New GFS has dropped my snow chance from 68% to 39% .

[Buzzit]

There are all sorts of tasty treats for snow lovers amongst the GFS 12z ensembles. There is everything to play for in the SE over the coming weeks - I am quietly awaiting some days off work

Here is a nice one for Wednesday next week courtesy of member 9 - Heavy snow for all under this (it also reflects the possibilities if the cold pool remains over us)

Also note the differences in the 18z and 12z ensembles (control run swapping with the op run which I find encouraging - along with the overall lowering of atmospheric temperatures across the run)

Edited January 9, 2013 by Buzzit

[Met4Cast]

New GFS has dropped my snow chance from 68% to 39% .

I wouldn't worry about that too much, those percentages are never that accurate I find

[Dan the Man]

I wouldn't worry about that too much, those percentages are never that accurate I find

Never accurate at all. Waste of time considering things change so quickly.

[Stuie]

To quote a Steve Murr Word.. BOOOMAGE

30 mins south of Cambridge here, very close to the Elsenham guy, name escapes me at the mo. Come on let it SNOW! I am still depressed over the Dec mess.

[JennyJane1]

New GFS has dropped my snow chance from 68% to 39% .

it is ridiculously, and i mean ridiculously, warm outside here today - tshirt weather! so i can't see it snowing here or there either!

[sarah7meme]

Well

I was told I live in highest part of Kent - not sure that's true but also in valley far se but away from coast (rubs hands!)

Mum is travelling from France to me on 15th though for a funeral in Charing ! Could be an adventure

And I need to race from aylesham (work) to Charing that afternoon

Love driving in snow !

Edited January 9, 2013 by sarah7meme

[etched Chaos]

it is ridiculously, and i mean ridiculously, warm outside here today - tshirt weather! so i can't see it snowing here or there either!

Was 9.9c at midnight, mild must really annoys me.

[john pike]

I just read the mod thread

Strewth I need a lie down

People worrying about precipitation ignore the percentage charts

They are normally wrong.

Good old radar and lamp post watch when the symptons are right.

[Jayces]

Many happy returns of the day John.

Exciting and nerve racking times ahead I suspect.

[Marie]

Can we get excited yet? I'm bored and want to ramp 😃happy Birthday John x

Edited January 9, 2013 by Marie

[JennyJane1]

Was 9.9c at midnight, mild must really annoys me.

why have i lost my location? i see you have too.

[etched Chaos]

why have i lost my location? i see you have too.

Must be the Snow-shield, is affecting the forum too.

[Met4Cast]

If the setup is right, we will get snow.

Remember back in early December when we watched the snow slowly moving down from the North? Many were expecting to see sleet at best but many of us ended up with a covering, some got a little more than a covering!

Whilst PPN charts can be helpful, we wont often know whether we're going to get snow or not until 12-24 hours before.

[Steve C]

Yep, can't see locations, or who's on the thread.

Glad it's not my pc

[chilly milly]

Hello everyone, it's been a lovely day here when the sun finally came out.

Great to see we are still game on for the weekend!

And a very Happy Birthday to the Great Mr J P. I hope you are having a sparkling day.

[lottiekent]

Well

I was told I live in highest part of Kent - not sure that's true but also in valley far se but away from coast (rubs hands!)

Mum is travelling from France to me on 15th though for a funeral in Charing ! Could be an adventure

And I need to race from aylesham (work) to Charing that afternoon

Love driving in snow !

You most definitely are not at the highest point in Kent if you're still in Lyminge!! Is always good or snow there though

[chilly milly]

I believe the locations have been removed to free up more space on the server and allow for the millions of viewers of NetWeather later this evening.

[lottiekent]

Happy Birthday John!!!

[GoonerGregg77]

ECM is looking good! GFS on it's own at the mo

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM is looking good! GFS on it's own at the mo

Yes T+120 is a decent chart, potentially quite a snowy one too:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010912/ECM1-120.GIF?09-0

Shortwave over the UK at this timeframe should move into Europe, so a decent T+144 chart quite likely IMO.

[Sno' problem]

Happy Birthday John! Here's to a wonderful year!!!

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM 12z T+144.. as Mr Burns would say, excellent Smithers!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010912/ECM1-144.GIF?09-0

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Nice ensembles

Gfs main run on the 16th loses the plot thick green line

Thankyou all for your birthday wishes

[john pike]

Hi ben

I think gfs has for some reason doing its old atlantic in trick in fi. Cannot cope with easterlies

All in all models looking good