Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[Iceaxecrampon]

Just caught up with the 06Z

E and Northerly attack......!

bonkers GFS run - well happy - bring on the weekend.

Ian

[abruzzi spur]

Unfortunately, particularly for the toy department, after a stonker of a run like the 06Z, I fear that the only way is down?

There could be a lot of moderators fielding at silly point, this afternoon!

RP, your knowledge of silly point must come in handy on this thread from time to time......?!

AS

[UV-RAY]

This would be a good time to close the model thread and reopen it after after tonights pub run, you know the old saying what goes up must come down.

[tonbridgemole]

Can you just imagine?.....to chuffed to talk about it...but its very possible!!

[Troubleatmill]

Just checked on the 6Z GFS - I think we have just drawn a number of Aces from the shuffled pack!!!!

Indeed!, i wonder how well the pack is shuffled on the 06z, hopefully a magicians pack!!

[AWD]

London ens;

[mcweather]

Chiono. Is it safe to say that GFS is consistently picking up on the strat warming now?

Edited January 8, 2013 by mcweather

[ChartViewer]

CMA240

[weather eater]

Atlantic, Bartlett, Early Spring, Zonal, Faux Cold.....your boys took one hell of a beating!

Not yet, let’s not get ahead of ourselves, nobody wants to be downbeat but we all know that in the UK if it can go wrong it will go wrong. Frankly something half as good as that run wouldn’t be bad, because that’s as good as it gets.

[snowking]

I think it's possibly worth saying at this juncture that FI remains firmly at 96-120hrs if that!

At the moment the ECM looks very isolated indeed, but despite its recent chopping and changing, it is still the best verifying model in the northern hemisphere at day 6.

The very slight concern I have is the tendency of the GFS to over-strengthen lows in the Atlantic, there are many many examples of this over the years and in this instance, we need a deepening of our mid Atlantic low in order to promote WAA up to Greenland. The current ECM is rather reminiscent of MJO phase 6, but it may well be that the last couple of det's havnt gone with the overall ensemble idea of moving from phase 6 to 7 (it's interesting when you look at the raw and then bias corrected ECM and GFS, GFS is bias corrected to less progression, ECM is corrected to more phase progression - this may explain the different outputs and may ultimately lead to a middle ground, which should still be phase 7 in any case)

SK

[tonbridgemole]

With all these eye candy charts! Just wondering what the wind chill temps could be?

[Mark Bayley]

Been away for a while so only just catching up with the models. Seems to me that the ECM is rather on its own, with the GFS and GEM on similar hymn sheet by T240, although the GFS the better of the two

The UKMO is also good at T144 showing better ridging into Greenland when compared to the relatively poor ECM (and GFS for comparison)

Quick look at the ensembles which show a rather mixed bag, plenty of colder options though. Will have a proper look at the models and teleconects later when i have more time. Although from a brief look i would suggest the outlook is positive. As TETIS points out there are some marginal snow events in the East on the 6z run (nearer term). Something to keep an eye on.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Mark Bayley

[ChartViewer]

NCMRWF Indian model isnt too shabby either...i know these are lesser models and verification stats seem to be unavailable but whilst were looking at model trends and possibilities in short to mid range and the mood is good ill post them:-)

T144

T168

T216

T240

ps - How do i thumbnail images on here?????

Edited January 8, 2013 by ChartViewer

[snowwonder]

Dont post very often, still getting to grips with model reading!!

Any chance that the ECM has only just recieved its snow/cold party invitation and will accept via RSVP later this evening!!! lol

GFS seems very consistant at the moment re cold/snow. Hope ECM does accept its invitation!!!

[Carl46Wrexham]

Hate to bring everyone down here, but I would advise a healthy degree of caution and scepticism about the charts that are shown. Have we collectively not learned from the December debacle?

I'll believe those charts when they are showing the same at T+24...not before. Once bitten and all that.

[Yarmy]

Each time I see one of those Chinese model charts, I feel like I need another an hour later.

Seriously, though, aren't the more erm... 'exotic' models derivatives of the GFS and therefore some consistency would be expected?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I made a prediction back in November that the End of Jan and up to the Middle of Feb was going to be cold..How cold of course I could not tell..But one thing I would like an answer or view on is why is Russia warming up? A huge scatter I know but still..Some very warm runs there..

[Ian Brown]

I would rather favour a bout of piles .

I don't understand why we must all favour it, are you the new mesiah

Surely you should be saying do not favour any model as conditions are so unstable at the moment.

I thought you had more knowledge than this.

Two fold – firstly what needs to be explored is why in some winters (most over the last 25 years) the NAO remains fiercely positive or at best neutral despite signals that should send it the other way.

Twice this winter we have the models back away from sending the NAO neg at the crucial 6/7 day point as low pressure development is picked up at Northern latitudes. We could be in another of these winters.

Secondly – I don’t know how long you have been following the NWP in winters but for me it’s about 14 years – and those of us who have been around long enough know that you need rock solidity in the ‘big’ models to get a decent cold spell. If you don’t have it – the worst case milder solution is ALWAYS the one that the end result ends up looking most like. Not scientific I grant you – but true as SM,TEITS etc.. will grudgingly confirm.

[bluearmy]

The gefs control very similar to the op at res change. that should give us a good indication of how the resolution change may have skewed the op. a couple of members following ecm op. i like the extended ecm ens - less cold solutions looking more and more scattered.

[ITSY]

amazing op run, snowtastic. Always flip flopping, expect a SWly in the 12Z, either a great UKMO/ECM and a poor run from the other. Now for the ens...

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-186.png?6

Another good GFS run- good pressure build-up in exactly the place we need

[Rocheydub]

Not true Ian. Most models historically will have wobbles in the lead up to significant events. I include winters 09/10 and 10/11

[Mark Bayley]

The gefs control very similar to the op at res change. that should give us a good indication of how the resolution change may have skewed the op. a couple of members following ecm op. i like the extended ecm ens - less cold solutions looking more and more scattered.

Yes, looks very nice!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=1&carte=0

[weather eater]

Secondly – I don’t know how long you have been following the NWP in winters but for me it’s about 14 years – and those of us who have been around long enough know that you need rock solidity in the ‘big’ models to get a decent cold spell. If you don’t have it – the worst case milder solution is ALWAYS the one that the end result ends up looking most like. Not scientific I grant you – but true as SM,TEITS etc.. will grudgingly confirm.

Well that’s true Ian we have all seen that happen, but in this case we are talking about 144hrs plus and you know as well as I you can't trust any output that far out, ECM, GFS or any other. The ECM would certainly be getting more attention from me if it was at least consistent with itself, but it isn’t, Caution with all output is the order of the day and that includes the ECM.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Two fold – firstly what needs to be explored is why in some winters (most over the last 25 years) the NAO remains fiercely positive or at best neutral despite signals that should send it the other way.

Twice this winter we have the models back away from sending the NAO neg at the crucial 6/7 day point as low pressure development is picked up at Northern latitudes. We could be in another of these winters.

Secondly – I don’t know how long you have been following the NWP in winters but for me it’s about 14 years – and those of us who have been around long enough know that you need rock solidity in the ‘big’ models to get a decent cold spell. If you don’t have it – the worst case milder solution is ALWAYS the one that the end result ends up looking most like. Not scientific I grant you – but true as SM,TEITS etc.. will grudgingly confirm.

With the SSW happening no outcome can be favoured because the consequences of this are unknown, from which i understand, the research into SSW is still in it's infancy. Maybe in winters with no SSW this is the case, but with what is happening now it cannot be called either way.

Edited January 8, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls