Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[Weathizard]

Fantastic for London north, great upgrade for snow if the low tracks there, a little further south and even us on the south coast would get some I'd imagine. I'm used to the M4 thing its the price I pay for living on the south coast! Possible back edge snow though!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Weathizard

[Southender]

MASSIVE upgrade for the weekend!!

[Continental Climate]

Praise Jesus!! http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1081.png!! Heavy snow showers into NE england and minus 10s almost lapping our shores, 108 though still to far out to be nailed

Come to papa http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png!!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Continental Climate

[Harsh Climate]

Snow showers now moving in.

http://modeles.meteo...fs-2-108.png?12

This is exactly what i've been referring to because some of the ensembles have suggested what the 12Z is showing.

The window for snow snow showers looks like being very small though.

After the initial wintry weather on saturday I thinks it's the north west where we next need to be looking. My early thoughts are rain/sleet/wet snow low ground, heavy snow high ground. After that is any ones guess!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[TwisterGirl81]

It must be said....from the M4 north. The south of that would be just rain/sleet

God I hope not as I live Devon! :/ I am sooooo hoping for snow, I hope we don't miss it....yet again!

[Isolated Frost]

Saturday snow possibility based on the 12z GFS would be around 80-90% confidence in E Anglia and E Midlands/Lincolnshire, with a high chance across SE England and the W Midlands, with some convective snow across N & E Yorkshire and NE England. A very high chance of some heavy wintry precip moving into the home counties in particular, with a height of marginality to be expressed.

Saturday 06z

-6c 850s into eastern England and Scotland- encouraging E/SE flow, upper low ridge extension should provide a lot of precip for southern parts-

as signified above.. increasing window of opportunity for those east of Cardiff and south of Edinburgh for some wintry weather come this weekend

[Summer Sun]

Get the snow shovels out and prepare for chaos on the roads and Airports!!

[chionomaniac]

UKMO looking good folks at T+96

Edited January 8, 2013 by chionomaniac

[kate1]

At this stage it looks as if the Meto's comparison with 8 December 1990 might well be close to the mark - at least over the weekend, at least for some of us...

[TAFKAP]

It must be said....from the M4 north. The south of that would be just rain/sleet

The precip charts show snow south of the M4 as well actually.

[Wilxy]

The pattern seems to of been shifted west on this run, if only a trend of that could continue, would be a great turn around.

[Iceberg]

One thing the GFS looks to be warning on is a further low to travel down the irish sea on monday night/monday morning, both reinforcing the cold and adding a western snow exposure.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is looking good peeps

[Ali1977]

Will ECM follow, big news if so..

[Dampdorset82]

Are you sure about that?

Upgrade in snow potential, but still too far out to have any confidence with. Its what happens after the weekend thats important

From what the models are showing I would say 80% sure, I would say maybe the far south east would get light snow at that point. The uppers are close to 0c.south and west of that area

[UV-RAY]

Cold further West and South much quicker on this run, no snow IMBY though on this run. I've a feeling everything will be much further South nearer the time. Could be a snowy weekend on the South Coast me thinks.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[SMU]

One of the best charts of the winter -

* Upper air cold pool over england

* Stationary air over us with sub -5c overnight temps

* Snowfall moving SE across the UK- snow east of the triple point...

Cracking- & at only 132

S

[chionomaniac]

UKMO T+120 happy with that

[Wilxy]

Much better ridging north aswel on this run big upgrade, i would say.

[ITSY]

UKMO is edging dangerously close to a GFS snowfest

[Iceberg]

UKMO looking good folks at T+96

Very Good Meto run, keeping the slider low out west again, much better ridging, less LP allowing a link up and snow for the UK as T96 is quite a bit colder Dam wise on this run. This weekend looks like being trouble.

[SMU]

UKMO 120 excellent as well-

VERY cold

[Dampdorset82]

The precip charts show snow south of the M4 as well actually.

I would expect sleet at best. Dont get confused with later in the run im just talking about Sarturday at this stage

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-138.png?12

One of the best charts of the winter -

* Upper air cold pool over england

* Stationary air over us with sub -5c overnight temps

* Snowfall moving SE across the UK- snow east of the triple point...

Cracking- & at only 132

S

Not to mention the rush hour snowmaggedon for the west coast on Monday:

[Harsh Climate]

Nice chart but this cold will not sustain itself unless we can get height rises towards greenland > svalbard..

Edited January 8, 2013 by Harsh Climate